Let's start with some simple match: 10/34 is 29.41%.
That's how much of the 2026 MLS season has transpired so far. In it, Austin FC came out of the gate with a reasonable four points out of six — though the late goal given up in the opening 2-2 draw against Minnesota was a concerning harbinger of future outcome-changing late goals let in – and then only mustered six points out of the following eight matches, to arrive at 10 points from 10 matches just five matches from a World Cup break coming at not quite the halfway point of the season.
Unexpected injuries — most notably the slow recovery of Owen Wolff from preseason sports hernia surgery – and some questionable refereeing decisions — most notably a red card to Guilherme Biro in an away match to Charlotte in which Verde still seemed able to steal a result — have interceded on head coach Nico Estévez's best laid plans.
But a look at the stats show that Austin FC is very good at one specific thing that has arisen from being less-than-good at other things, and a look at the record shows the team has a long (but not impossible) climb to get to the playoff places.
Let's explore.
First, the math
Despite coming off a statement-making win against Houston (even if the statement is "We're not hopeless"), and some quality draws against LAFC and Inter Miami, Verde's 1 PPG pace would have them finish with 34 points, well below the threshold needed to qualify for the MLS playoffs – which, given nine of 15 teams in each conference make it, has become a baseline measure of competence.
