The best chance of the night for Austin FC in Wednesday’s 1-0 win over Portland Timbers FC was not the Dani Pereira goal.
Oh, far from it.
It was actually the Gyasi Zardes shot in the 3rd minute of stoppage time, with Portland desperate for an equalizer and Verde getting a few chances against a forward-minded team. The ball from Owen Wolff, expertly sent from 20 yards, fell to an onside Zardes six yards from goal, albeit a bit wide of the goalmouth. He took a touch, shot … and the ball banana’d wildly off his foot and into the second row of the Timbers Army’s position. (Which, given how high the wall behind the goal is in the former baseball stadium, is no easy feat.)
That shot represented 0.2 xG of the 0.33 xG Verde earned on the night. Again, the visitors won 1-0, mustering only seven shots to the Timbers’ 26. FBref credited the Timbers with 10 shots (MLS counted 11); Brad Stuver saved all of them. The Timbers’ Maxime Crepeau faced a single shot on target and let that in. As the maxim goes (or, maybe here, how the Maxime goes), sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.
But there’s a little more to it than that. Let’s explore.
