Two fan bases potentially involved in the first knockout game of the 2026 World Cup were disappointed by losses yesterday.
First, Canada lost 2-1 to Switzerland, and the lackluster performance sent them to the track that goes through L.A. for a Round of 32 match and what looks to be a Round of 16 match against the winner of Netherlands-Morocco, instead of the Round of 32 match in Vancouver against a third-place team to likely face the winner of the Portugal-Colombia match in a Round of 16 match also in Vancouver.
Then, South Korea just needed a result to get to L.A. for that Round of 32 match against Canada, and if you've seen how the LAFC crowds turn out for Son Heung-min — who didn't even start Wednesday's match – it had the potential to be a true away match for Canada. But thanks to South Africa scoring an upset, in what Rodger Sherman astutely pointed out was the first directional World Cup matchup in more than 50 years, the first match of the knockout rounds will be Canada-South Africa instead.
That was (to me at least) the biggest unfolding storyline with surprise in it, as Brazil and Morocco both won, with Brazil winning Group C on goal differential (dooming Scotland to possible elimination as a now-weaker third-place team, and Mexico had already wrapped up Group A (though it also awaits its third-place opponent, while knowing it's playing on June 30).
Today, the U.S. plays its final group stage game, as does Germany (against Ecuador), Netherlands (against two-coach Tunisia), and Japan (against Sweden). That will help us figure out more matchups, as right now, we only know one.
Group A
Predictions vs. Reality
- Projected winner: Mexico (10) / Winner: Mexico
- Projected runner-up: South Korea (28) / Runner-up: South Africa
- Projected 3rd-place team: Czechia (48) / 3rd-place team: South Korea
- Projected 4th-place team: South Africa (54) /4th-place team: Czechia
Group B
Predictions vs. Reality
- Projected winner: Canada (31) / Winner: Switzerland
- Projected runner-up: Switzerland (17) / Runner-up: Canada
- Projected 3rd-place team: Bosnia & Herzegovina (62) / 3rd-place team: Bosnia & Herzegovina
- Projected 4th-place team: Qatar (61) / 4th-place team: Qatar
Group C
Predictions vs. Reality
- Projected winner: Brazil (5) / Winner: Brazil
- Projected runner-up: Morocco (6) / Runner-up: Morocco
- Projected 3rd-place team: Scotland (41) / 3rd-place team: Scotland
- Projected 4th-place team: Haiti (88) / 4th-place team: Haiti
Running total: 7 of 12 correct (58.3%)
Group D
Predictions
- Projected winner: United States (14)
- Projected runner-up: Türkiye (32)
- Projected 3rd-place team: Australia (25)
- Projected 4th-place team: Paraguay (37)
Past matches
- United States. 4, Paraguay 1 (June 12, Inglewood, Calif.)
- Australia 2, Türkiye 0 (June 13, Vancouver)
- United States 2, Australia 0 (June 19, Seattle)
- Paraguay 1, Türkiye 0 (June 19, Santa Clara, Calif.)
Today's matches
- Türkiye vs. United States: Thursday, June 25, 9 pm (Inglewood, Calif.)
- Paraguay vs. Australia: Thursday, June 25, 9 pm (Santa Clara, Calif.)
Most compelling narrative
Which U.S. players with yellow cards will be held out of the lineup? Which one will play, and will they evade suspension for the Round of 32? With possible lineup rotation, which players will get rotated in, and from that, how much action will Gio Reyna see? And will Christian Pulisic see the field?
Player to watch
That's all based on the lineup that U.S. head coach Mauricio Pochettino rolls out.
Group E
Predictions
- Projected winner: Germany (9)
- Projected runner-up: Ecuador (29)
- Projected 3rd-place team: Côte d'Ivoire (30)
- Projected 4th-place team: Curaçao (81)
Past matches
- Germany 7, Curaçao 1 (June 14, Houston)
- Côte d'Ivoire 1, Ecuador 0 (June 14, Philadelphia)
- Germany 2, Côte d'Ivoire 1: (June 20, Toronto)
- Ecuador 0, Curaçao 0: (June 20, Kansas City)
Today's matches
- Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Thursday, June 25, 3 pm (Philadelphia)
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Thursday, June 25, 3 pm (East Rutherford, N.J.)
Most compelling narrative
Ecuador was unbeaten in 19 matches heading into the tournament, and has managed just one point and zero goals in two World Cup matches. Will the matchup against Germany even approach the hype that was building pre-tournament, or will Ecuador be eliminated before the knockout rounds? (As it stands right now, and assuming Côte d'Ivoire handles Curaçao — though maybe that's not a thing to assume! – Ecuador stands to finish as one of the weaker third-place teams, having to wait out results from all the other groups.
Player to watch
Deniz Undav has come off the bench in both Germany matches and has three goals and two assists, including a brace to bring Die Mannschaft back from the brink for a 2-1 win over Côte d'Ivoire to ward off what was developing into one of the tournament's biggest upsets. Perhaps he'll start? (He's also fun to watch; a solidly-built 5'10" tank of a player rolling downhill to goal.)
Group F
Predictions
- Projected winner: Netherlands (8)
- Projected runner-up: Japan (16)
- Projected 3rd-place team: Sweden (36)
- Projected 4th-place team: Tunisia (57)
Past matches
- Netherlands 2, Japan 2 (June 14, Jerryworld)
- Sweden 5, Tunisia 1 (June 14, Monterrey)
- Netherlands 5, Sweden 1 (June 20, Houston)
- Japan 4, Tunisia 0 (June 20, Monterrey)
Today's matches
- Japan vs. Sweden: Thursday, June 25, 6 pm (Jerryworld)
- Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Thursday, June 25, 6 pm (Kansas City)
Most compelling narrative
The Netherlands' win over Tunisia seems preordained, so
Player to watch
If Sweden is to win, it will be up to the still-quite-new striker partnership of Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres to outscore Japan. I expect a lot of goals in this one (including from Ayase Ueda for Japan, who I do expect to emerge victorious despite missing key players).
The knockout rounds: What we know
Note: All times CT
Sunday, June 28
- Canada vs. South Africa, 2 pm, Inglewood, Calif.
Monday, June 29
- Brazil vs. Group F runner-up, noon, Houston
- Germany vs. Group A/B/C/D/F 3rd place, 3:30 pm, Foxborough, Mass.
- Group F winner vs. Morocco, 8 pm, Monterrey
Tuesday, June 30
- Group E runner-up vs. Group I runner-up, noon, Jerryworld
- Group I winner vs. Group C/D/F/G/H 3rd place, 4 pm, East Rutherford, N.J.
- Mexico vs. Group C/E/F/H/I third place, 8 pm, Mexico City
Wednesday, July 1
- Group L winner vs. Group E/H/I/J/K 3rd place, 11 am, Atlanta
- Group G winner vs. Group A/E/H/I/J 3rd place, 3 pm, Seattle
- United States vs. Group B/E/F/I/J 3rd place, 7 pm, Santa Clara, Calif.
Thursday, July 2
- Group H winner vs. Group J runner-up, 2 pm, Inglewood, Calif.
- Group K runner-up vs. Group L runner-up, 6 pm, Toronto
- Switzerland vs. Group E/F/G/I/J 3rd place, 10 pm, Vancouver
Friday, July 3
- Group D runner-up vs. Group G runner-up, 1 pm, Jerryworld
- Argentina vs. Group H runner-up, 5 pm, Miami Gardens, Fla.
- Group K winner vs. Group D/E/I/J/L 3rd place, 8:30 pm, Kansas City
Where to watch
I'm venturing over the river today to ABGB; it looks like Drag Bingo will segue into the U.S.-Türkiye match? Perfect.
What to read
ESPN's article on South Korea's disappointment scrolls right into its article on Canada's disappointment.
Two fan bases potentially involved in the first knockout game of the 2026 World Cup were disappointed by losses yesterday.
First, Canada lost 2-1 to Switzerland, and the lackluster performance sent them to the track that goes through L.A. for a Round of 32 match and what looks to be a Round of 16 match against the winner of Netherlands-Morocco, instead of the Round of 32 match in Vancouver against a third-place team to likely face the winner of the Portugal-Colombia match in a Round of 16 match also in Vancouver.
Then, South Korea just needed a result to get to L.A. for that Round of 32 match against Canada, and if you've seen how the LAFC crowds turn out for Son Heung-min — who didn't even start Wednesday's match – it had the potential to be a true away match for Canada. But thanks to South Africa scoring an upset, in what Rodger Sherman astutely pointed out was the first directional World Cup matchup in more than 50 years, the first match of the knockout rounds will be Canada-South Africa instead.
That was (to me at least) the biggest unfolding storyline with surprise in it, as Brazil and Morocco both won, with Brazil winning Group C on goal differential (dooming Scotland to possible elimination as a now-weaker third-place team, and Mexico had already wrapped up Group A (though it also awaits its third-place opponent, while knowing it's playing on June 30).
Today, the U.S. plays its final group stage game, as does Germany (against Ecuador), Netherlands (against two-coach Tunisia), and Japan (against Sweden). That will help us figure out more matchups, as right now, we only know one.
Group A
Predictions vs. Reality
Group B
Predictions vs. Reality
Group C
Predictions vs. Reality
Running total: 7 of 12 correct (58.3%)
Group D
Predictions
Past matches
Today's matches
Most compelling narrative
Which U.S. players with yellow cards will be held out of the lineup? Which one will play, and will they evade suspension for the Round of 32? With possible lineup rotation, which players will get rotated in, and from that, how much action will Gio Reyna see? And will Christian Pulisic see the field?
Player to watch
That's all based on the lineup that U.S. head coach Mauricio Pochettino rolls out.
Group E
Predictions
Past matches
Today's matches
Most compelling narrative
Ecuador was unbeaten in 19 matches heading into the tournament, and has managed just one point and zero goals in two World Cup matches. Will the matchup against Germany even approach the hype that was building pre-tournament, or will Ecuador be eliminated before the knockout rounds? (As it stands right now, and assuming Côte d'Ivoire handles Curaçao — though maybe that's not a thing to assume! – Ecuador stands to finish as one of the weaker third-place teams, having to wait out results from all the other groups.
Player to watch
Deniz Undav has come off the bench in both Germany matches and has three goals and two assists, including a brace to bring Die Mannschaft back from the brink for a 2-1 win over Côte d'Ivoire to ward off what was developing into one of the tournament's biggest upsets. Perhaps he'll start? (He's also fun to watch; a solidly-built 5'10" tank of a player rolling downhill to goal.)
Group F
Predictions
Past matches
Today's matches
Most compelling narrative
The Netherlands' win over Tunisia seems preordained, so
Player to watch
If Sweden is to win, it will be up to the still-quite-new striker partnership of Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres to outscore Japan. I expect a lot of goals in this one (including from Ayase Ueda for Japan, who I do expect to emerge victorious despite missing key players).
The knockout rounds: What we know
Note: All times CT
Sunday, June 28
Monday, June 29
Tuesday, June 30
Wednesday, July 1
Thursday, July 2
Friday, July 3
Where to watch
I'm venturing over the river today to ABGB; it looks like Drag Bingo will segue into the U.S.-Türkiye match? Perfect.
What to read
ESPN's article on South Korea's disappointment scrolls right into its article on Canada's disappointment.
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