'What would you say you ... do here?': Austin FC leads in one key defensive metric — but is last in another

Three matches into the 2025 season, Austin FC leads the league in one key defensive metric — indicating the defensive philosophy that goalkeeper Brad Stuver discussed after the team's opening clean sheet win is working.

But then there's another key defensive stat that Verde's dead last in the league in, indicating that something's at work that doesn't conform to your usual expectations of an effective defense.

It's a paradox that got me thinking about the classic line from 1999's Office Space, a movie which one could reductively describe as being about getting away with doing as little as possible yet succeeding.

The line, of course, is asked to an Initech employee by one of the efficiency-evaluating Two Bobs: "What would you say you ... do here?"

Let's delve into the paradox.

What's impressive so far

Following the Feb. 22 win over Sporting Kansas City, Stuver said that an impressive interception Mikkel Desler made on Dejan Joveljić in front of goal, instrumental in preserving a clean sheet, was indicative of the team's defensive philosophy, forged this preseason under new head coach Nico Estévez.

"We've been working on having each other's backs and getting compact and making sure that we always have someone there to make the play," Stuver observed.

Over the next two matches, both 1-0 losses, that philosophy was largely in play, yet the goals happened as a result of costly defensive lapses – an issue carrying over from last season. A team can play well for most of 90 minutes, and do all the defensive work needed to prevent goals, but one momentary let-up can be costly – as it was on a David Da Costa free kick and a Đorđe Mihailović throughball to Rafael Navarro to decide their two losses.

As Brendan Hines-Ike observed following the loss away at Portland on March 1, "Soccer is a cruel game."

Yet, over three matches, as online soccer personality Tutul Rahman pointed out, Verde leads the league in expected goals allowed.

That means opponents are averaging around 0.63 xG per match against Austin, whereas the Fire are allowing their opponents nearly 2.4 xG per match.

That's got to be a sign of a stingy defense thwarting their opponents, right? Lots of tackles and interceptions to break up attacks? And clearances as well?

(By the way, you should read that series of questions in the voice Stewie uses to grill Brian about his novel-writing plans in these classic Family Guy clips.)

Check this out

Actually, the tackles plus interceptions metric that FBref uses as part of its defensive stat tallying shows a much different story.

Yep: Austin's last in that category.

Verde are also about the middle of the pack in clearances, and in case you were wondering if Stuver's goalkeeping has been keeping Verde in matches, Austin's also last in post-shot expected goals with 1.3 and last in PSxG per shot on target at 0.18, meaning that Stuver's facing the least amount of danger of MLS's collection of keepers.

And yet, Austin (with Stuver obviously in the keeper role all 270 minutes so far) toward the bottom of the PSxG plus/minus goals allowed metric at -0.7, in a category Stuver normally excels in. (It is still early, and it's based on two goals allowed on seven shots of target, with an average-so-far save percentage of 71.4%.)

What's Verde doing, exactly?

If you're wondering what's happening, the answer might lie on the offensive side of the equation.

Through three matches, Austin's 9th in possession, registering 1913 touches, putting the team on pace for 21,680 touches for the season, which would best 2024's 19,154, which put them bottom third of the league despite former head coach Josh Wolff's premium-placing on possession.

So far this season, Verde have registered 54.7% possession, tied for 6th-most in the league, compared to 49.9% in 2024. And Austin's toward the bottom in defensive penalty and defensive third touches, meaning that the ball's not spending as much time near their goal as it is for other teams.

They're also 9th in touches in the attacking third and 13th in touches in the middle third. It's only three matches into the 2025 season, but compare that to 2024's numbers (28th of 29 teams in middle-third touches, and 24th in final-third touches), and it's absolutely encouraging.

Some of those numbers from 2024 certainly reflect (in part, at least) Wolff's more conservative approach on the road, but some of them are also certainly a function of not having a particularly adept group of ball progressors or a system that lent itself toward a lot of dribble-dependent progression upfield. (It doesn't take a lot of touches to get a ball down the flanks and then cross it, compared to what the 2025 eye test is showing us.)

This is an unfolding mystery, and I'll keep an eye on more data as the season progresses to see if Austin's still able to keep chances on the low end of xGA (measuring, I'll continue to remind you, number of shots times quality of shots), and if Austin does step up their actual defensive actions or if they're still able to control matches despite a lack of those.

(And goals, of course. We're all waiting for more goals.)

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