The 2024 MLS regular season starts up again on Saturday, and Austin FC is looking to leap at least one spot in the standings to get into the playoffs. Right now, it’s on 31 points, good for 10th place in the West. That’s not good enough, of course; the top nine get into the playoffs, and the 8th- and 9th-place teams have a one-match contest to see who faces the No. 1 seed in a laborious best-of-three series.
(I’m one of those, by the way, who regards the 8/9 play-in game as making the playoffs. Let’s not get hung up on that point of contention for our purposes today.)
While no team is officially out of the playoffs yet, and no team has locked up a spot yet, there are clearly defined tiers that have sorted themselves through the first two-thirds of the season. It’d be shocking if any of the four teams currently above 40 points didn’t make the playoffs — with two of those teams already above the Thomas Rongen Line of 45 points — and it’s hard envisioning any of the teams at 24 points or lower making the playoffs (even though one of them is SKC, who had a miracle season-closing run in 2023 to make it in).
I’d also predict that the next three teams below the top four — Vancouver on 38 points, and Houston and Seattle on 37 — make the playoffs as well. There might be some shuffling along the way, and one of those teams might slip to the 8/9 game, but let’s assume they’ve done enough and can do enough to get in.
That leaves three teams competing with Austin FC for two spots: Portland on 36 points, Minnesota on 33 points, and Dallas on 30 points. Here’s how the table looks right now.
Let’s assess.
