Wake me up when September ends: Can Austin FC climb the table (and how do they)?
Austin FC has a long road to making the playoffs, being in 14th place to start September. But the team could be in much better position by the end of the month. Here's how.
In the effort to make the 2026 MLS playoffs, "win every game" is the most obvious course of action for Austin FC to take (and for fans to want), but what else helps? Investigating which "results elsewhere" will most improve Austin's playoff chances reveals a lot about the momentum of not only the Violet Crown kings, but the rest of the Western Conference.
For now, we're looking at mostly the newly started month to come. Pour one out, because for the last time, September will transform the playoff race before it's over. With the schedule switch in 2027, we will retire the longstanding MLS idea/notion/saying that "nothing matters until September." As it stands, the current state of the table and, perhaps more crucially, which teams the current No. 4 through 13 clubs are set to face makes this a spicier September than normal. It's worth noting that 2026 is also the last season of "conferences" before a unified League table and divisional play change the late season playoff math and chase forever.
We'll dip a tiny bit into October relative the team and situation.
We're focusing on those teams above No. 14 Austin. The current top three (Vancouver, Houston, and LAFC) are considered beyond safe to the point that they might just end up top three going into the playoffs. We'll start with general things to watch for, then Austin's most-crucial wins (and why), and then blast through briefs on the ten teams between Austin and the aforementioned top three.
Western table stakes
The rest of the West (below the top three) has not been great this year. It's full of teams plagued by lots of draws and a general difficulty with winning matches outright.
It would be great for Austin if the West keeps having those issues.
Next, Verde fans want to see Western Conference teams lose outright to others that pose no threat to Austin climbing the table. The problem with West teams suffering outright losses to other West teams is that those stacks of three points help other teams Austin wants to leapfrog. You want to see Vancouver, Houston, and LAFC beat everyone they play who is not Austin. That leaves one wild card fourth team that will theoretically have a hot streak in September. It could be any of Dallas, St. Louis, or Colorado, from where I'm sitting.
Most importantly, as a sub-point to the above, you want to see West teams lose outright to any and every East team they play, since that helps nobody else in the Western Conference. Based on the teams involved, losing to those East teams is likely, as we'll get into below.
Oh, and you want Sporting Kansas City to improbably beat anyone and everyone they play, because no realistic scenario where Verde is in playoff contention involves SKC being able to catch them.
Austin's September
Starting the month on 24 points, Austin has five very winnable games in September. No, really.
At home, they have San Jose in a slump, and Colorado who went big in the transfer window (both incoming and outgoing) and will be working out a new group dynamic. Vancouver host Verde just three days before playing a second leg against Montreal in the Canadian Championship, which the 'Caps definitely care about more than beating Austin. The Copa Tejas Revenge match against Dallas in a newly renovated stadium could finally break the curse of Toyota Truck Month. Verde catch San Diego at the end of a hell of a month for the Shiny & Chrome.
The Austin that showed up the way they did against Toluca can win those five matches. Imagine being on 39 points in a month's time. Before you dismiss that as impossible, tell yourself a month ago that Austin would win all three Leagues Cup group games on top of beating Seattle and Portland away.
The ones it hurts the least to lose or draw are Vancouver and Dallas. Results (and preferably wins) against San Jose, Colorado, and San Diego are essential to Austin's playoff chances. Verde winning their first two matches, in particular, both keep the dream alive and would put them at 30 points, just below Colorado's 31. Beating San Diego gives Verde 33.
A conservatively optimistic projection of three wins and three draws puts them on 35 points by month's end.
(From Phil: That pulls their points per game up to 1.3, or around 44 for the season if the team retains that form. Getting to 35 points from where they were requires playing at 1.43 PPG since the World Cup break, even with three straight losses in there.)
A lot of West teams are going to have unpleasant, stagnant Septembers.
If Austin can somehow hit their September potential ceiling of 39 points, it changes everything.
From 13 to four, and 26 to 34 points
The reason I think September will be more interesting for Austin fans than they may expect is that a ton of the teams in Verde's way to Kool-Aid Man-ning into the playoffs are ... not in a great place, in various meanings of the phrase. From teams suffering winless runs of form to full on "who are we?!" identity crises, there is a lot to realistically hope for in the "results elsewhere" world.
Let's roll in reverse table order. Note that 13th and 4th places are only separated by 8 points, 26 and 34 respectively.
Vancouver, RSL, and Seattle all have one match in hand. Everyone else has played 22 matches save LAFC and LA Galaxy, who've played 23 each. Everyone below plays five MLS matches in September except for RSL, who play six.
No. 13: Los Angeles Galaxy, 26 points (with a ceiling of 41)
One Austin win plus one loss by the Galaxy jumps Verde over the Carsonians (and probably Seattle). Galaxy have been red card magnets for a while now (four in their last 7 matches) and have only one MLS win since the World Cup break. Chucky Lozano is working out fine for now, but how long does that last? It would be great if they lose to the East's Revs this weekend (Phil adds: perhaps a Diego Fagundez revenge match is brewing?) before going away to Vancouver (they will lose), host Seattle (which will likely be a super boring draw), away to Minnesota, and then they host an ascendant Colorado.
No. 12: Seattle Sounders FC, 26 points (with a ceiling of 41)
They're winless in MLS since before the World Cup break. They are on a club history-redefining terrible slide. Red Bulls ought to beat them this weekend. Then they go away on back-to-back weekends against Galaxy and Colorado, probably losing at elevation. Then they host RSL and Minnesota to close the month, with all teams likely hungry to stem the bleeding.
No. 11 Portland Timbers FC, 28 points (with a ceiling of 43)
Having sent Kevin Kelsy out to Rangers, the Timbers need to figure out who is going to score under new coach Martí Cifuentes. They open the month hosting a Minnesota bereft from the loss of Khaled El-Ahmad (joking, or am I?) and a solidifying St. Louis before going away to Dallas, who are regrettably looking very stable and in the fight for top three/four. It would be great for Atlanta to whoop them at Providence Park in the East/West Turf Stadium Derby. They close the month on the worst pitch in MLS against San Jose in the first leg of a three-match run on the road (followed by SKC and Galaxy).
No. 10 Real Salt Lake, 28 points (with a ceiling of 46)
Winless in MLS play since May 16th, they really needed that Leagues Cup quarterfinal win much more than the other three MLS teams. They start September hosting LAFC after being stomped pretty decisively in their previous four matches. Then they go away to Houston and host NYCFC and Vancouver. They are going to have a terrible month.
Even though Seattle are in arguably as bad or worse shape, I don't see RSL having momentum or focus to capitalize at Lumen Field like Austin did. They end the month hosting the Revs (who are good!) before starting October away against Philadelphia (who are also good!).
(Phil adds: They'll also be doing this all without Xavier Gozo, who is still third in minutes and second in goal contributions despite last appearing for RSL on July 25 ahead of his move to Crystal Palace.)
No. 9 Minnesota United FC, 29 points (with a ceiling of 44)
They beat San Jose 5-1 a couple weeks ago, but they also started Season 2026-B losing 2-1 to SKC and that Quakes win is their only MLS win since the World Cup. Their September starts away/home/away with Portland/Dallas/St. Louis, who have all had better form of late than the Loons. Closing the month against Galaxy and Seattle is little comfort when you realize their October involves their second leg against a St. Louis that is figuring things out, home and away against an on-fire Houston, and at Colorado. Minnesota will have to go very hard to get back to just plain winning, which is what they need to do to not miss the playoffs themselves.
No. 8 San Diego FC, 30 points (with a ceiling of 45)
San Diego have not had the "cannot win" problem many teams under them have, but they are facing a really annoying schedule. In the span of a month, SDFC play four far superior East teams: Orlando away, Philly, Miami away, and Red Bulls away at the start of October. I sincerely believe that the "Curse of Chooky" will, indeed crash them out.
They'll be without d-mid linchpin Jeppe Tverskov at Orlando this weekend (where they will lose) before hosting San Jose. I think they can beat the Quakes in San Diego. I do not think they can do the same against the Union, nor do I see them faring well in Miami. I fully expect them to be in points panic mode when they come to Austin at the end of the month. Then they go to New Jersey for Red Bulls before hosting Houston to kick off October. Their schedule lightens a bit going to Carson (or does it?) and hosting Seattle, but their season actually ends prior to Decision Day on the road against Vancouver and St. Louis. The former will be pushing for top seed, the latter likely in the fight to make top four. SDFC host SKC on Decision Day, and I do not expect it to "decide" anything for either team.
No. 7 Colorado Rapids, 31 points (with a ceiling of 46)
They made some big, important moves this transfer window, no doubt. They stole two points off of Austin at home recently. Their run of wins since the World Cup has been solid!
But ... they start off September at Columbus (where the Rapids will lose) and come to Austin after that (where I think Austin win). After that, they host a Montréal that is figuring itself out and hungry for out-of-conference points.
(A Montréal team, by the way, that just did this.)
Their next match after that is a U.S. Open Cup semifinal against St. Louis. They can coast on their last two September matches being against Seattle and Galaxy, but being intensely focused on Open Cup will definitely affect the preceding three matches. Home field advantage will go some of the way, but they need to stay healthy.
(Phil adds: I don't think, even with what they added, offloading Rafa Navarro to St. Louis helps Colorado, and makes the upcoming U.S. Open Cup semifinal between those teams especially interesting.)
No. 6 St. Louis City SC, 34 points (with a ceiling of 49)
Speaking of that US Open Cup semifinal ... St. Louis has had a solid combination of wins and draws this year, and will be formidable against Colorado. The Puppy Chow Boys have a more unpleasant road to it than Colorado, with two road games against Vancouver and Portland followed by hosting Minnesota. Win or lose the semifinal, they face two East teams, hosting Toronto and RBNY away. I guess you could say the biggest favor any single team could do Austin would be for Red Bulls to go on a season record-defying run this month.
No. 5 FC Dallas, 34 points (with a ceiling of 49)
Prior to Leagues Cup and after the World Cup, the Friscans were winless. Vancouver squashed them 5-0 just two weeks ago. Prior to that, they squeaked out a 4-3 win against RSL (who are bad). I say this to note that their points total and table position relative other West clubs does not mean they are great and unbeatable, far from it. They do, however, host 4/5 of their September matches, starting with SKC, who they ought to demolish. Next week, they play their one away from home against the Loons, returning home for Portland, Austin, and LAFC.
Would be kinda great if SKC found a way to rattle them, huh? Unlikely, but would be nice.
They've had a solid season overall, and for a couple teams running, you've probably been wondering why I bothered with teams this far up the table, especially ones that are so solidly expected to be top eight in November.
No. 4 San Jose Earthquakes, 34 points (with a ceiling of 49)
San Jose has been winless in seven and lost 5-1 to Minnesota. They are my candidate for the most likely biggest fall from a lofty rung of the ladder. They could realistically end September on the same 34 points they start it on.
They start with two matches on the road against Austin and San Diego, two hungry teams eager for momentum. They host their three remaining matches. The problem for the Quakes is that they are against Houston, LAFC, and Portland. Then they start October on the road against Colorado and RSL at elevation, coming home to host Nashville before hitting the road again against Dallas. They close the month ... hosting Colorado and RSL, who will both probably still be fighting for table position.
This weekend's wish list, for reference
Austin beats San Jose
New England beats LA Galaxy
RBNY beats Seattle
Portland draws Minnesota
LAFC beat RSL
Orlando humiliate San Diego
Columbus wreck Colorado
Vancouver beat St. Louis
SKC shock the world and beat Dallas
...and only one of those is a draw.
Austin need to stack up wins in September to have not just the points, but the momentum to carry them into a not-easy October. Austin leads off with a home rematch against 2025 Open Cup nemeses Nashville before heading to LAFC and then back home against Vancouver.
Are those matches winnable? September will tell.
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. For more coverage, check out Emergency Podcast! (an Austin FC Podcast) wherever you get your podcasts.
With Minnesota United FC, Khalen El-Ahmad made quite a few budget-conscious moves that improved the team to be a playoff-level achiever. But then he also brought in James.
Chris Applewhite featured for the USYNT U-20 team at this summer's Concacaf championship. He'll get a chance to get minutes under interim head coach Davy Arnaud as well as head-coach-in-waiting Jim Curtin.
Oleksandr Svatok was put into the Austin FC match against Portland in the final minutes to preserve a victory. Instead, he had to dig deep and score a goal in order to reclaim one.
In the effort to make the 2026 MLS playoffs, "win every game" is the most obvious course of action for Austin FC to take (and for fans to want), but what else helps? Investigating which "results elsewhere" will most improve Austin's playoff chances reveals a lot about the momentum of not only the Violet Crown kings, but the rest of the Western Conference.
For now, we're looking at mostly the newly started month to come. Pour one out, because for the last time, September will transform the playoff race before it's over. With the schedule switch in 2027, we will retire the longstanding MLS idea/notion/saying that "nothing matters until September." As it stands, the current state of the table and, perhaps more crucially, which teams the current No. 4 through 13 clubs are set to face makes this a spicier September than normal. It's worth noting that 2026 is also the last season of "conferences" before a unified League table and divisional play change the late season playoff math and chase forever.
We'll dip a tiny bit into October relative the team and situation.
We're focusing on those teams above No. 14 Austin. The current top three (Vancouver, Houston, and LAFC) are considered beyond safe to the point that they might just end up top three going into the playoffs. We'll start with general things to watch for, then Austin's most-crucial wins (and why), and then blast through briefs on the ten teams between Austin and the aforementioned top three.
Western table stakes
The rest of the West (below the top three) has not been great this year. It's full of teams plagued by lots of draws and a general difficulty with winning matches outright.
It would be great for Austin if the West keeps having those issues.
Next, Verde fans want to see Western Conference teams lose outright to others that pose no threat to Austin climbing the table. The problem with West teams suffering outright losses to other West teams is that those stacks of three points help other teams Austin wants to leapfrog. You want to see Vancouver, Houston, and LAFC beat everyone they play who is not Austin. That leaves one wild card fourth team that will theoretically have a hot streak in September. It could be any of Dallas, St. Louis, or Colorado, from where I'm sitting.
Most importantly, as a sub-point to the above, you want to see West teams lose outright to any and every East team they play, since that helps nobody else in the Western Conference. Based on the teams involved, losing to those East teams is likely, as we'll get into below.
Oh, and you want Sporting Kansas City to improbably beat anyone and everyone they play, because no realistic scenario where Verde is in playoff contention involves SKC being able to catch them.
Austin's September
Starting the month on 24 points, Austin has five very winnable games in September. No, really.
At home, they have San Jose in a slump, and Colorado who went big in the transfer window (both incoming and outgoing) and will be working out a new group dynamic. Vancouver host Verde just three days before playing a second leg against Montreal in the Canadian Championship, which the 'Caps definitely care about more than beating Austin. The Copa Tejas Revenge match against Dallas in a newly renovated stadium could finally break the curse of Toyota Truck Month. Verde catch San Diego at the end of a hell of a month for the Shiny & Chrome.
The Austin that showed up the way they did against Toluca can win those five matches. Imagine being on 39 points in a month's time. Before you dismiss that as impossible, tell yourself a month ago that Austin would win all three Leagues Cup group games on top of beating Seattle and Portland away.
The ones it hurts the least to lose or draw are Vancouver and Dallas. Results (and preferably wins) against San Jose, Colorado, and San Diego are essential to Austin's playoff chances. Verde winning their first two matches, in particular, both keep the dream alive and would put them at 30 points, just below Colorado's 31. Beating San Diego gives Verde 33.
A conservatively optimistic projection of three wins and three draws puts them on 35 points by month's end.
(From Phil: That pulls their points per game up to 1.3, or around 44 for the season if the team retains that form. Getting to 35 points from where they were requires playing at 1.43 PPG since the World Cup break, even with three straight losses in there.)
A lot of West teams are going to have unpleasant, stagnant Septembers.
If Austin can somehow hit their September potential ceiling of 39 points, it changes everything.
From 13 to four, and 26 to 34 points
The reason I think September will be more interesting for Austin fans than they may expect is that a ton of the teams in Verde's way to Kool-Aid Man-ning into the playoffs are ... not in a great place, in various meanings of the phrase. From teams suffering winless runs of form to full on "who are we?!" identity crises, there is a lot to realistically hope for in the "results elsewhere" world.
Let's roll in reverse table order. Note that 13th and 4th places are only separated by 8 points, 26 and 34 respectively.
Vancouver, RSL, and Seattle all have one match in hand. Everyone else has played 22 matches save LAFC and LA Galaxy, who've played 23 each. Everyone below plays five MLS matches in September except for RSL, who play six.
No. 13: Los Angeles Galaxy, 26 points (with a ceiling of 41)
One Austin win plus one loss by the Galaxy jumps Verde over the Carsonians (and probably Seattle). Galaxy have been red card magnets for a while now (four in their last 7 matches) and have only one MLS win since the World Cup break. Chucky Lozano is working out fine for now, but how long does that last? It would be great if they lose to the East's Revs this weekend (Phil adds: perhaps a Diego Fagundez revenge match is brewing?) before going away to Vancouver (they will lose), host Seattle (which will likely be a super boring draw), away to Minnesota, and then they host an ascendant Colorado.
No. 12: Seattle Sounders FC, 26 points (with a ceiling of 41)
They're winless in MLS since before the World Cup break. They are on a club history-redefining terrible slide. Red Bulls ought to beat them this weekend. Then they go away on back-to-back weekends against Galaxy and Colorado, probably losing at elevation. Then they host RSL and Minnesota to close the month, with all teams likely hungry to stem the bleeding.
No. 11 Portland Timbers FC, 28 points (with a ceiling of 43)
Having sent Kevin Kelsy out to Rangers, the Timbers need to figure out who is going to score under new coach Martí Cifuentes. They open the month hosting a Minnesota bereft from the loss of Khaled El-Ahmad (joking, or am I?) and a solidifying St. Louis before going away to Dallas, who are regrettably looking very stable and in the fight for top three/four. It would be great for Atlanta to whoop them at Providence Park in the East/West Turf Stadium Derby. They close the month on the worst pitch in MLS against San Jose in the first leg of a three-match run on the road (followed by SKC and Galaxy).
No. 10 Real Salt Lake, 28 points (with a ceiling of 46)
Winless in MLS play since May 16th, they really needed that Leagues Cup quarterfinal win much more than the other three MLS teams. They start September hosting LAFC after being stomped pretty decisively in their previous four matches. Then they go away to Houston and host NYCFC and Vancouver. They are going to have a terrible month.
Even though Seattle are in arguably as bad or worse shape, I don't see RSL having momentum or focus to capitalize at Lumen Field like Austin did. They end the month hosting the Revs (who are good!) before starting October away against Philadelphia (who are also good!).
(Phil adds: They'll also be doing this all without Xavier Gozo, who is still third in minutes and second in goal contributions despite last appearing for RSL on July 25 ahead of his move to Crystal Palace.)
No. 9 Minnesota United FC, 29 points (with a ceiling of 44)
They beat San Jose 5-1 a couple weeks ago, but they also started Season 2026-B losing 2-1 to SKC and that Quakes win is their only MLS win since the World Cup. Their September starts away/home/away with Portland/Dallas/St. Louis, who have all had better form of late than the Loons. Closing the month against Galaxy and Seattle is little comfort when you realize their October involves their second leg against a St. Louis that is figuring things out, home and away against an on-fire Houston, and at Colorado. Minnesota will have to go very hard to get back to just plain winning, which is what they need to do to not miss the playoffs themselves.
No. 8 San Diego FC, 30 points (with a ceiling of 45)
San Diego have not had the "cannot win" problem many teams under them have, but they are facing a really annoying schedule. In the span of a month, SDFC play four far superior East teams: Orlando away, Philly, Miami away, and Red Bulls away at the start of October. I sincerely believe that the "Curse of Chooky" will, indeed crash them out.
They'll be without d-mid linchpin Jeppe Tverskov at Orlando this weekend (where they will lose) before hosting San Jose. I think they can beat the Quakes in San Diego. I do not think they can do the same against the Union, nor do I see them faring well in Miami. I fully expect them to be in points panic mode when they come to Austin at the end of the month. Then they go to New Jersey for Red Bulls before hosting Houston to kick off October. Their schedule lightens a bit going to Carson (or does it?) and hosting Seattle, but their season actually ends prior to Decision Day on the road against Vancouver and St. Louis. The former will be pushing for top seed, the latter likely in the fight to make top four. SDFC host SKC on Decision Day, and I do not expect it to "decide" anything for either team.
No. 7 Colorado Rapids, 31 points (with a ceiling of 46)
They made some big, important moves this transfer window, no doubt. They stole two points off of Austin at home recently. Their run of wins since the World Cup has been solid!
But ... they start off September at Columbus (where the Rapids will lose) and come to Austin after that (where I think Austin win). After that, they host a Montréal that is figuring itself out and hungry for out-of-conference points.
(A Montréal team, by the way, that just did this.)
Their next match after that is a U.S. Open Cup semifinal against St. Louis. They can coast on their last two September matches being against Seattle and Galaxy, but being intensely focused on Open Cup will definitely affect the preceding three matches. Home field advantage will go some of the way, but they need to stay healthy.
(Phil adds: I don't think, even with what they added, offloading Rafa Navarro to St. Louis helps Colorado, and makes the upcoming U.S. Open Cup semifinal between those teams especially interesting.)
No. 6 St. Louis City SC, 34 points (with a ceiling of 49)
Speaking of that US Open Cup semifinal ... St. Louis has had a solid combination of wins and draws this year, and will be formidable against Colorado. The Puppy Chow Boys have a more unpleasant road to it than Colorado, with two road games against Vancouver and Portland followed by hosting Minnesota. Win or lose the semifinal, they face two East teams, hosting Toronto and RBNY away. I guess you could say the biggest favor any single team could do Austin would be for Red Bulls to go on a season record-defying run this month.
No. 5 FC Dallas, 34 points (with a ceiling of 49)
Prior to Leagues Cup and after the World Cup, the Friscans were winless. Vancouver squashed them 5-0 just two weeks ago. Prior to that, they squeaked out a 4-3 win against RSL (who are bad). I say this to note that their points total and table position relative other West clubs does not mean they are great and unbeatable, far from it. They do, however, host 4/5 of their September matches, starting with SKC, who they ought to demolish. Next week, they play their one away from home against the Loons, returning home for Portland, Austin, and LAFC.
Would be kinda great if SKC found a way to rattle them, huh? Unlikely, but would be nice.
They've had a solid season overall, and for a couple teams running, you've probably been wondering why I bothered with teams this far up the table, especially ones that are so solidly expected to be top eight in November.
No. 4 San Jose Earthquakes, 34 points (with a ceiling of 49)
San Jose has been winless in seven and lost 5-1 to Minnesota. They are my candidate for the most likely biggest fall from a lofty rung of the ladder. They could realistically end September on the same 34 points they start it on.
They start with two matches on the road against Austin and San Diego, two hungry teams eager for momentum. They host their three remaining matches. The problem for the Quakes is that they are against Houston, LAFC, and Portland. Then they start October on the road against Colorado and RSL at elevation, coming home to host Nashville before hitting the road again against Dallas. They close the month ... hosting Colorado and RSL, who will both probably still be fighting for table position.
This weekend's wish list, for reference
...and only one of those is a draw.
Austin need to stack up wins in September to have not just the points, but the momentum to carry them into a not-easy October. Austin leads off with a home rematch against 2025 Open Cup nemeses Nashville before heading to LAFC and then back home against Vancouver.
Are those matches winnable? September will tell.
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. For more coverage, check out Emergency Podcast! (an Austin FC Podcast) wherever you get your podcasts.
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