The Western Conference Playoff Zone: Ceilings and floors across a space-time continuum
Austin's looking at a playoff picture ranging from 5th through 9th. We did a lot of math to map out the possible pathways for Verde and the 10 teams still in the postseason picture.
From 11 contenders, nine will rise above the playoff line in the West. A win against Atlanta United on Sunday night bolted the door shut behind LAFC in the Top Four Clubhouse, while a decisive battering of San Jose (courtesy of Vancouver) clinched Austin's guaranteed spot somewhere in the top nine for the 2025 MLS Cup playoffs. Some would argue that the play-in game between the 8th and 9th place teams does not count as "playoffs," so call it The Playoff Zone if you want.[[1]]
Based on way more Sunday night math and analysis than I had planned to do, I'm pretty confident that Austin is most likely to land in 6th as things currently stand. Read on if you want to be convinced.
Join me, won't you, as I take you on a guided tour of the what-it-takes floors and best-possible ceilings for the entire Western Conference Playoff Zone.
We'll go a lot broader than we do other teams when it comes to Austin for obvious reasons, but so many variables could affect Austin's destiny, that we'll fluctuate a bit across space and time as we go from the bottom to the top of the current table (as of this writing).
Expect to feel a progression from most-grim to outright best-case scenario as we climb. Nico Estévez said it's been a "horrible week for us," and I think I can venture to say he meant that to include anyone reading this, not just the players and staff. Buckle in and this should be a good ride, Austinaut.
Before we take off, a proximity warning. Guess who happens to be at the very outer reaches of The Playoff Zone? One of the Austinites' favorite teams to hate! Given who that team is, that one will be a little wordier than other non-Austin-team sectors we would otherwise blast through. If you're dreading Austin "only" clinching the play-in game or above, check out what their Decision Day opponent is facing and try to unclench a bit as we escape into zero gravity.
San Jose Earthquakes
Current place: 11th (on 38 points) Highest ceiling: 8th place on 41 points Lowest playoff qualifying floor: 9th place on 41 points
First of all, Quakes-hating Austinites should revel in how Vancouver utterly clowned San Jose on Sunday afternoon. They were played off the field to the extent that it felt like Sebastian Berhalter was sending a love letter back to his former home in the form of a brace and an assist.
The Quakes' only path above the line is to max out on points, with 8th versus 9th depending on what happens elsewhere. The thing is ... San Jose could be eliminated before Decision Day, should the pair of FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake win or draw next weekend. Any combination of results for them aside from one of those teams losing? The Quakes are toast.
If RSL draw away against Seattle, SJ cannot beat them on wins (the first tiebreaker). A draw for Frisco at LA Galaxy puts them a point over San Jose's ceiling. If either Dallas or RSL loses, San Jose still has a path to 9th.
To make the playoffs in 8th, San Jose has to jump Dallas and RSL by:
beating Austin on Decision Day, plus
Dallas losing both of its remaining games (both away, against Galaxy and Vancouver), and
Real Salt Lake either losing away against both Seattle and St. Louis or losing one of those and drawing the other, plus
San Jose has to improve their goal differential of -4 to either equal Dallas' -3 (since the next tiebreaker is goals for, which SJ wins) or surpass it.
To squeak into playoffs in 9th, San Jose has to:
beat Austin on Decision Day, and
jump Colorado by the Rapids losing or drawing against LAFC (tied on wins, SJ's GD would beat them), and
one of the following scenarios involving RSL and/or RSL plus Dallas:
Scenario 1A: RSL loses both remaining games
Scenario 1B: RSL lose one and draw one, Dallas lose both of their games and San Jose must meet or exceed Dallas's GD of -3 and maintain its goals for lead, currently at 58-52
But then again, if Dallas and RSL both do anything but lose next weekend, none of the above matters. Austin can expect a spicy Decision Day away from home, no matter what — it's a matter of just what flavor of heat.
Colorado Rapids
Current place: 10th (on 40 points) Highest ceiling: 8th place on 43 points Lowest playoff qualifying floor: 8th place on 41 points
The Rapids cannot jump Austin and also mathematically cannot meet them in a play-in game, so only a draw or win against LAFC on Decision Day can only put them 8th, dependent on other results.
RSL's more firmly in the playoff race with a pair of recent wins, including one over Austin and one that allowed Austin to clinch playoffs (Alex Rubio)
Real Salt Lake
Current place: 9th (on 40 points) Highest ceiling: 6th place on 46 points Lowest playoff qualifying floor: 9th place on 40 points
If they pick up no additional points from a draw or win, they need Colorado to lose to LAFC and San Jose to at best draw against Austin to make the play-in. On the more optimistic end, they could leap Austin in 6th only if no one underneath Verde overtakes them and Austin does no better than draw against both LAFC and the Quakes. If Austin wins either of those games, RSL cannot jump them.
FC Dallas
Current place: 8th place on 41 points Highest ceiling: 6th place on 47 points Lowest playoff qualifying floor: 9th place on 41 points
If Frisco gets no more points in the table, one of RSL/Colorado/San Jose could jump them, and Frisco could still squeak into the play-in. They play both of their remaining games away, against Galaxy and the Whitecaps, so that may be their clench and pray route.
Similar to RSL, FCD can overtake Austin and end up 6th, but only if Austin, Portland, RSL, Colorado, and San Jose have bad results. That's a hell of a lot of hopium. To jump Austin, they would need a win and a draw or two wins, and then only if Austin picks up no further points. If Austin draws one and loses one, Dallas has to win both outright to jump them. Getting up to 7th would take Dallas notching one of two as a win, Portland losing to San Diego, and Frisco improving its goal differential, since it's currently even with Portland.
Portland Timbers
Current place: 7th (on 44 points) highest ceiling: 6th place on 47 points lowest floor: 9th place on 44 points
Welcome to the place beyond the clinching barrier, where there is less clenching and all teams hence have punched their ticket to at least the outer rim of the Western Conference Playoff Zone. It's true, the air is a little cleaner and sweeter out/up here.
If Dallas and RSL max out at 47 and 46 points respectively (requiring two tough wins for both!), and Portland draws or loses to San Diego on Decision Day, the Timbers are playing-in against Salt Lake.
Portland picking up three points against San Diego on Decision Day jumps it over only a winless or two-draws ATX. If Verde wins just one of their two remaining, Portland cannot jump them in the table.
Neither can anyone else.
Austin FC
Current place: 6th (on 44 points) Highest ceiling: 5th place on 50 points Lowest playoff qualifying floor: 9th place on 44 points
We will get back to that promised land of just one win jumping Austin through the deep space wormhole to a better dimension of the playoffs, the Inner Zone. Getting there may not even require the light-speed jump of a win, but it'll be a bumpier ride.
Let's start again at the least optimistic end of things. Don't worry just yet. I promise the math and various clubs' recent form make the worst-case scenario really improbable, with the good kind of "results elsewhere" needed. For Austin to hang onto 9th place by their fingernails, exactly one scenario has to happen.
"Hello Darkness"
Austin loses against LAFC AND San Jose, and
Portland draws or wins at home against San Diego, and
Dallas wins away against both Galaxy and Vancouver, and
RSL wins away against both Seattle and St. Louis
If Dallas or Real Salt Lake draw or lose next weekend (against Galaxy and Seattle, respectively), Austin cannot be 9th because neither of those teams can then jump Austin mathematically. In either of those variant outcomes of this scenario ("Scenario 1B" for your records), worst-case goes to a better worst case of 8th for Verde, hosting the play-in at Q2.
Both FC Dallas and Austin FC could represent Texas in the 2025 MLS playoffs (Alex Rubio)
7th place heaven
That's all still "technically the playoffs," aka the aforementioned Outer Rim of the Playoff Zone. Going least-ideal to most, how does Austin hit exactly 7th and avoid the dreaded play-in game?
Scenario 2: "Portland Triumphant"
Austin loses to LAFC and San Jose and is stuck on 44 points
Portland wins or draws against San Diego, hitting 47 or 45 points
Dallas loses against either Galaxy or Vancouver (Austin beats them on wins)
RSL loses against either Seattle or St. Louis
Scenario 3: "Portland By the Skin of Their Chainsaw Teeth"
Austin draws both LAFC and San Jose, getting to 46 points
Portland wins against San Diego, taking 6th with 47 points
Dallas loses against either Galaxy or Vancouver, plateauing at 44 points
RSL loses against either Seattle or St. Louis
Scenario 4: "46-Point Tiebreaker"
Austin draws both LAFC and San Jose, getting to 46 points
Portland wins against San Diego, hitting 47 points and jumping to 6th
Dallas wins one and draws against the other in the Galaxy and Vancouver matches, also hitting 46 points (Austin places ahead on wins)
RSL loses or draws against either Seattle or St. Louis, but if they were win both their games to max out at 46, they would jump Austin on wins to push Austin below 7th (kinda like Scenario 1B)
Scenario 5A: "The 44-Point Bad Place"
Austin loses against both LAFC and San Jose
Portland loses to San Diego
Dallas wins one and loses one (Austin beats both FCD and Portland on wins, with all tied on 44 points)
RSL wins one and draws one, vaulting into 6th, knocking Austin down to 7th on wins and shifting Portland/Dallas to 8th and 9th
Looking at all those losses and draws feels like predicting a big bummer for fans and players alike in Scenarios 2 through 5a. On the upside, at least they all avoid the play-in game!
Sticking in 6th...or better?
If Seattle draws or wins against RSL (we can see this happening) or at NYCFC (very doable but tougher), Austin's ceiling is locked at 6th place, so let's start with that limiting factor. To start, there's a variant of the above 7th-place results that looks (if not feels) marginally better.
Scenario 5B: "The 44-Point Not-As-Bad Place"
Austin loses against both LAFC and San Jose
Portland loses to San Diego
Dallas wins one and loses one (Austin beats them and Portland on wins, all tied at 44 points)
RSL loses one of two and is stuck on 43 points
Keep in mind that one win makes that one scenario and all of the above 7th through 9th place scenarios impossible. If Austin can get just one win between the LAFC and San Jose games, no one beneath Austin can jump over them to 6th place. Austin has more possible help from other results than their table mates aiming for 6th, too.
Scenario 6: "The Magic Number"
Austin wins one of two matches, landing on 47 points
Portland does literally anything against San Diego, since they are glued under Austin on matched wins
Dallas does literally anything, including win both games and hit 47, since Austin on 13 wins beats their 12
RSL does literally anything, smashing their noses on a 46-point ceiling
There are more permutations of Scenario 6 possible of playing out than any other, and it represents the greatest motivation for Austin to show up big in either or both of their remaining games. Aside from getting their heads back closer to where they were fresh off the fumes of the U.S. Open Cup Semifinal against Minnesota, they need to keep their diehard fans engaged. The fastest way there is through a Bouanga and Son-less LAFC next Sunday night.
Even with them, LAFC was held to only one goal against ... Atlanta United? This week's Sunday Night Soccer showed they are beatable even with a first-choice lineup.
The one marginal scenario remaining is the least likely, but is mathematically possible and not entirely crazy. Re-adjust the bend in reality above regarding Seattle getting favorable results.
Scenario 7: "The Big 5-0"
Austin beats both LAFC AND San Jose, hitting 50 points
Seattle loses their two remaining games (to stay at 49 points) or get a draw and a loss, getting to 50 but losing the wins tiebreaker to Austin 14-13
That might seem improbable on its face, but RSL is desperate for a win next weekend to avoid elimination, NYCFC is chasing points to make Top Four in the East, and ... maybe Seattle has new priorities over winning those two games.
For now, Austin and Seattle are on the same side of the playoff bracket (Alex Rubio)
Seattle Sounders
Current place: 5th (on 49 points) Highest ceiling: 5th place on 55 points Lowest floor: 6th place on 49 points
LAFC's win against Atlanta United on Sunday night locks in a spot in the West's Top Four, but Seattle has some theoretical motivation to not check out and let Austin have an opening to "steal" 5th place. Wins are good for playoff momentum. Seattle dropping to 6th means playing the 3rd seed, which very much still could be anyone in the Top Four's spot until results from International Break Make-Up Game Week roll in.[[2]]
Does Schmetzer rotate and conserve fitness, looking at this as a six of one, half dozen of the other situation?
He has two guys out on international duty (Vargas and Baker-Whiting) and Alex Roldan nursing a hip injury. Looking at all the various scenarios and what seeding means, the Sounders are in the most favorable place to not have to go especially hard in either of their remaining regular-season games, lest they risk first-round playoff injury problems. No other team in the West has this option as a relative advantage.
LAFC
Current place: 4th (on 53 points) Highest ceiling: 1st place on 65 points Lowest floor: 4th place on 56 points
LAFC has the fullest pre-playoffs schedule remaining, with three matches to everyone else's one or two. They are losing Son and Bouanga for the first pair, midweek against Toronto, and for Sunday Night Soccer four days later in Austin. They only get the Son-Bouanga connection back for Decision Day at Colorado. Their games in hand mean that if they can win all three and Vancouver loses or draws one of their two (at Orlando and home against Dallas), LAFC could still top the West and make their first round against the winner of the play-in. Could.
Vancouver has two games (at Orlando and at Dallas), and San Diego only has one (at Portland), and enough variables are at play to make the entire Top Four on the way to completely inverted or just completely jumbled by this time next week. For example, if LAFC wins two in a row and Vancouver loses to Orlando, the Black and Gold goes from 4th to top of the West heading into the slate of games on the 18th.
Minnesota United FC
Current place: 3rd (on 58 points) Highest ceiling: 1st place on 61 points Lowest floor: 4th place on 58 points
Then again, the Loons could leapfrog to the top, too. Their destiny is in the hands of others for the most part, though, since their one remaining game is at LA Galaxy, which they would have to win to take first. On top of that, they would need for both San Diego to lose at Portland and Vancouver to lose at both Orlando and Dallas. If LAFC wins just one of their last three games and Minnesota draws or loses, LAFC would jump MNUFC on points and wins. If LAFC wins more than one, the door into the top three slams shut on the Loons. By contrast, if LAFC draws two and loses one, they would not jump Minnesota due to wins.
Vancouver Whitecaps
Current place: 2nd (on 60 points) Highest ceiling: 1st place on 66 points Lowest floor: 4th place on 60 points
It would be weird for the Caps to end up 4th behind Minnesota, but it could happen if they lose at Orlando and at Dallas, LAFC wins two of three, and Minnesota wins at Carson. The West's Top Four would then be LAFC/Minnesota/San Diego/Vancouver ... but that's pretty much the only way Vancouver drops to 5th, and it's a bit unlikely despite both Orlando fighting to stay out of the East's play-in spots and Dallas trying to stay above the line. Their solid home season finale stomping of San Jose showed that Vancouver is in fine form.
San Diego FC
Current place: 1st place (on 60 points) Highest ceiling: 1st place on 63 points Lowest floor: 4th place on 60 points
All San Diego has left to do is take two weeks off and play Portland. It's mostly up to other teams to allow them to top the conference. Portland has plenty to fight for, and that combined with San Diego's top spot in the West depending on results elsewhere takes their destiny mostly out of the debutante Shiny and Chrome's hands (who set the points record for an expansion team last week by eliminating Houston from playoff contention).
Like Austin and Portland's symbiotic wins relationship (with one win separating them), as long as they stay level on points with Vancouver, the Caps can't pass San Diego in the table. As long as they're level on points, they can only fall as far as third. The problem for San Diego is that the Whitecaps get two games to San Diego's one.
San Diego has to lose on Decision Day for it to be possible to drop to 4th. That's the piece they control. Vancouver would then have to either win or draw once to put themselves over SDFC. As I said above, they are more than capable of doing it, but if they lose midweek at Orlando, that dream is dead. It would also take Minnesota winning outright at Galaxy on Oct. 18 and LAFC scraping together at least 5 points (a win and two draws or two or more wins) by then.
Why does any of that matter to an Austin fan? It means the most unlikely path in the first round for Austin is jumping Seattle into 5th place and playing a 4th-place San Diego...but a 3rd-place San Diego could much more likely run into a 6th-place Austin.
How different would those multiversal matchups be, I wonder?
It's going to be a crazy next seven days for the West's playoff picture, but both the team and their fans have time to take a breath, rest, and regroup. The wildest thing to me about the St. Louis game on Saturday night was that, despite a major difference in attendance, the performative energy in the crowd was not very far off of what we saw in the U.S. Open Cup Final.
Maybe Austin will go "far out" yet. Maybe.
[[1]]: Editor's note: Play-in game is the playoffs. I will be taking no questions at this time.
[[2]]: The way the West is shaking out, that No. 3 seed could be Minnesota, arguably the most beatable of the Top Four, though it could also end up being LAFC, which Seattle is perhaps best equipped of the 5-through-9 teams to beat in a three-match series.
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Saturday's loss to St. Louis City SC completed the team's first three-match losing streak since May. Verde can still make the playoffs today, but may not avoid the play-in game.
You've heard this before, but Austin FC can qualify for the playoffs this weekend — even if they lose. And there's a record we fully expect Brad Stuver to break on Saturday night regardless of results.
From 11 contenders, nine will rise above the playoff line in the West. A win against Atlanta United on Sunday night bolted the door shut behind LAFC in the Top Four Clubhouse, while a decisive battering of San Jose (courtesy of Vancouver) clinched Austin's guaranteed spot somewhere in the top nine for the 2025 MLS Cup playoffs. Some would argue that the play-in game between the 8th and 9th place teams does not count as "playoffs," so call it The Playoff Zone if you want.[[1]]
Based on way more Sunday night math and analysis than I had planned to do, I'm pretty confident that Austin is most likely to land in 6th as things currently stand. Read on if you want to be convinced.
Join me, won't you, as I take you on a guided tour of the what-it-takes floors and best-possible ceilings for the entire Western Conference Playoff Zone.
We'll go a lot broader than we do other teams when it comes to Austin for obvious reasons, but so many variables could affect Austin's destiny, that we'll fluctuate a bit across space and time as we go from the bottom to the top of the current table (as of this writing).
Expect to feel a progression from most-grim to outright best-case scenario as we climb. Nico Estévez said it's been a "horrible week for us," and I think I can venture to say he meant that to include anyone reading this, not just the players and staff. Buckle in and this should be a good ride, Austinaut.
Before we take off, a proximity warning. Guess who happens to be at the very outer reaches of The Playoff Zone? One of the Austinites' favorite teams to hate! Given who that team is, that one will be a little wordier than other non-Austin-team sectors we would otherwise blast through. If you're dreading Austin "only" clinching the play-in game or above, check out what their Decision Day opponent is facing and try to unclench a bit as we escape into zero gravity.
San Jose Earthquakes
Current place: 11th (on 38 points)
Highest ceiling: 8th place on 41 points
Lowest playoff qualifying floor: 9th place on 41 points
First of all, Quakes-hating Austinites should revel in how Vancouver utterly clowned San Jose on Sunday afternoon. They were played off the field to the extent that it felt like Sebastian Berhalter was sending a love letter back to his former home in the form of a brace and an assist.
The Quakes' only path above the line is to max out on points, with 8th versus 9th depending on what happens elsewhere. The thing is ... San Jose could be eliminated before Decision Day, should the pair of FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake win or draw next weekend. Any combination of results for them aside from one of those teams losing? The Quakes are toast.
If RSL draw away against Seattle, SJ cannot beat them on wins (the first tiebreaker). A draw for Frisco at LA Galaxy puts them a point over San Jose's ceiling. If either Dallas or RSL loses, San Jose still has a path to 9th.
To make the playoffs in 8th, San Jose has to jump Dallas and RSL by:
To squeak into playoffs in 9th, San Jose has to:
But then again, if Dallas and RSL both do anything but lose next weekend, none of the above matters. Austin can expect a spicy Decision Day away from home, no matter what — it's a matter of just what flavor of heat.
Colorado Rapids
Current place: 10th (on 40 points)
Highest ceiling: 8th place on 43 points
Lowest playoff qualifying floor: 8th place on 41 points
The Rapids cannot jump Austin and also mathematically cannot meet them in a play-in game, so only a draw or win against LAFC on Decision Day can only put them 8th, dependent on other results.
Real Salt Lake
Current place: 9th (on 40 points)
Highest ceiling: 6th place on 46 points
Lowest playoff qualifying floor: 9th place on 40 points
If they pick up no additional points from a draw or win, they need Colorado to lose to LAFC and San Jose to at best draw against Austin to make the play-in. On the more optimistic end, they could leap Austin in 6th only if no one underneath Verde overtakes them and Austin does no better than draw against both LAFC and the Quakes. If Austin wins either of those games, RSL cannot jump them.
FC Dallas
Current place: 8th place on 41 points
Highest ceiling: 6th place on 47 points
Lowest playoff qualifying floor: 9th place on 41 points
If Frisco gets no more points in the table, one of RSL/Colorado/San Jose could jump them, and Frisco could still squeak into the play-in. They play both of their remaining games away, against Galaxy and the Whitecaps, so that may be their clench and pray route.
Similar to RSL, FCD can overtake Austin and end up 6th, but only if Austin, Portland, RSL, Colorado, and San Jose have bad results. That's a hell of a lot of hopium. To jump Austin, they would need a win and a draw or two wins, and then only if Austin picks up no further points. If Austin draws one and loses one, Dallas has to win both outright to jump them. Getting up to 7th would take Dallas notching one of two as a win, Portland losing to San Diego, and Frisco improving its goal differential, since it's currently even with Portland.
Portland Timbers
Current place: 7th (on 44 points)
highest ceiling: 6th place on 47 points
lowest floor: 9th place on 44 points
Welcome to the place beyond the clinching barrier, where there is less clenching and all teams hence have punched their ticket to at least the outer rim of the Western Conference Playoff Zone. It's true, the air is a little cleaner and sweeter out/up here.
If Dallas and RSL max out at 47 and 46 points respectively (requiring two tough wins for both!), and Portland draws or loses to San Diego on Decision Day, the Timbers are playing-in against Salt Lake.
Portland picking up three points against San Diego on Decision Day jumps it over only a winless or two-draws ATX. If Verde wins just one of their two remaining, Portland cannot jump them in the table.
Neither can anyone else.
Austin FC
Current place: 6th (on 44 points)
Highest ceiling: 5th place on 50 points
Lowest playoff qualifying floor: 9th place on 44 points
We will get back to that promised land of just one win jumping Austin through the deep space wormhole to a better dimension of the playoffs, the Inner Zone. Getting there may not even require the light-speed jump of a win, but it'll be a bumpier ride.
Let's start again at the least optimistic end of things. Don't worry just yet. I promise the math and various clubs' recent form make the worst-case scenario really improbable, with the good kind of "results elsewhere" needed. For Austin to hang onto 9th place by their fingernails, exactly one scenario has to happen.
"Hello Darkness"
If Dallas or Real Salt Lake draw or lose next weekend (against Galaxy and Seattle, respectively), Austin cannot be 9th because neither of those teams can then jump Austin mathematically. In either of those variant outcomes of this scenario ("Scenario 1B" for your records), worst-case goes to a better worst case of 8th for Verde, hosting the play-in at Q2.
7th place heaven
That's all still "technically the playoffs," aka the aforementioned Outer Rim of the Playoff Zone. Going least-ideal to most, how does Austin hit exactly 7th and avoid the dreaded play-in game?
Scenario 2: "Portland Triumphant"
Scenario 3: "Portland By the Skin of Their Chainsaw Teeth"
Scenario 4: "46-Point Tiebreaker"
Scenario 5A: "The 44-Point Bad Place"
Looking at all those losses and draws feels like predicting a big bummer for fans and players alike in Scenarios 2 through 5a. On the upside, at least they all avoid the play-in game!
Sticking in 6th...or better?
If Seattle draws or wins against RSL (we can see this happening) or at NYCFC (very doable but tougher), Austin's ceiling is locked at 6th place, so let's start with that limiting factor. To start, there's a variant of the above 7th-place results that looks (if not feels) marginally better.
Scenario 5B: "The 44-Point Not-As-Bad Place"
Keep in mind that one win makes that one scenario and all of the above 7th through 9th place scenarios impossible. If Austin can get just one win between the LAFC and San Jose games, no one beneath Austin can jump over them to 6th place. Austin has more possible help from other results than their table mates aiming for 6th, too.
Scenario 6: "The Magic Number"
There are more permutations of Scenario 6 possible of playing out than any other, and it represents the greatest motivation for Austin to show up big in either or both of their remaining games. Aside from getting their heads back closer to where they were fresh off the fumes of the U.S. Open Cup Semifinal against Minnesota, they need to keep their diehard fans engaged. The fastest way there is through a Bouanga and Son-less LAFC next Sunday night.
Even with them, LAFC was held to only one goal against ... Atlanta United? This week's Sunday Night Soccer showed they are beatable even with a first-choice lineup.
The one marginal scenario remaining is the least likely, but is mathematically possible and not entirely crazy. Re-adjust the bend in reality above regarding Seattle getting favorable results.
Scenario 7: "The Big 5-0"
That might seem improbable on its face, but RSL is desperate for a win next weekend to avoid elimination, NYCFC is chasing points to make Top Four in the East, and ... maybe Seattle has new priorities over winning those two games.
Seattle Sounders
Current place: 5th (on 49 points)
Highest ceiling: 5th place on 55 points
Lowest floor: 6th place on 49 points
LAFC's win against Atlanta United on Sunday night locks in a spot in the West's Top Four, but Seattle has some theoretical motivation to not check out and let Austin have an opening to "steal" 5th place. Wins are good for playoff momentum. Seattle dropping to 6th means playing the 3rd seed, which very much still could be anyone in the Top Four's spot until results from International Break Make-Up Game Week roll in.[[2]]
Does Schmetzer rotate and conserve fitness, looking at this as a six of one, half dozen of the other situation?
He has two guys out on international duty (Vargas and Baker-Whiting) and Alex Roldan nursing a hip injury. Looking at all the various scenarios and what seeding means, the Sounders are in the most favorable place to not have to go especially hard in either of their remaining regular-season games, lest they risk first-round playoff injury problems. No other team in the West has this option as a relative advantage.
LAFC
Current place: 4th (on 53 points)
Highest ceiling: 1st place on 65 points
Lowest floor: 4th place on 56 points
LAFC has the fullest pre-playoffs schedule remaining, with three matches to everyone else's one or two. They are losing Son and Bouanga for the first pair, midweek against Toronto, and for Sunday Night Soccer four days later in Austin. They only get the Son-Bouanga connection back for Decision Day at Colorado. Their games in hand mean that if they can win all three and Vancouver loses or draws one of their two (at Orlando and home against Dallas), LAFC could still top the West and make their first round against the winner of the play-in. Could.
Vancouver has two games (at Orlando and at Dallas), and San Diego only has one (at Portland), and enough variables are at play to make the entire Top Four on the way to completely inverted or just completely jumbled by this time next week. For example, if LAFC wins two in a row and Vancouver loses to Orlando, the Black and Gold goes from 4th to top of the West heading into the slate of games on the 18th.
Minnesota United FC
Current place: 3rd (on 58 points)
Highest ceiling: 1st place on 61 points
Lowest floor: 4th place on 58 points
Then again, the Loons could leapfrog to the top, too. Their destiny is in the hands of others for the most part, though, since their one remaining game is at LA Galaxy, which they would have to win to take first. On top of that, they would need for both San Diego to lose at Portland and Vancouver to lose at both Orlando and Dallas. If LAFC wins just one of their last three games and Minnesota draws or loses, LAFC would jump MNUFC on points and wins. If LAFC wins more than one, the door into the top three slams shut on the Loons. By contrast, if LAFC draws two and loses one, they would not jump Minnesota due to wins.
Vancouver Whitecaps
Current place: 2nd (on 60 points)
Highest ceiling: 1st place on 66 points
Lowest floor: 4th place on 60 points
It would be weird for the Caps to end up 4th behind Minnesota, but it could happen if they lose at Orlando and at Dallas, LAFC wins two of three, and Minnesota wins at Carson. The West's Top Four would then be LAFC/Minnesota/San Diego/Vancouver ... but that's pretty much the only way Vancouver drops to 5th, and it's a bit unlikely despite both Orlando fighting to stay out of the East's play-in spots and Dallas trying to stay above the line. Their solid home season finale stomping of San Jose showed that Vancouver is in fine form.
San Diego FC
Current place: 1st place (on 60 points)
Highest ceiling: 1st place on 63 points
Lowest floor: 4th place on 60 points
All San Diego has left to do is take two weeks off and play Portland. It's mostly up to other teams to allow them to top the conference. Portland has plenty to fight for, and that combined with San Diego's top spot in the West depending on results elsewhere takes their destiny mostly out of the debutante Shiny and Chrome's hands (who set the points record for an expansion team last week by eliminating Houston from playoff contention).
Like Austin and Portland's symbiotic wins relationship (with one win separating them), as long as they stay level on points with Vancouver, the Caps can't pass San Diego in the table. As long as they're level on points, they can only fall as far as third. The problem for San Diego is that the Whitecaps get two games to San Diego's one.
San Diego has to lose on Decision Day for it to be possible to drop to 4th. That's the piece they control. Vancouver would then have to either win or draw once to put themselves over SDFC. As I said above, they are more than capable of doing it, but if they lose midweek at Orlando, that dream is dead. It would also take Minnesota winning outright at Galaxy on Oct. 18 and LAFC scraping together at least 5 points (a win and two draws or two or more wins) by then.
Why does any of that matter to an Austin fan? It means the most unlikely path in the first round for Austin is jumping Seattle into 5th place and playing a 4th-place San Diego...but a 3rd-place San Diego could much more likely run into a 6th-place Austin.
How different would those multiversal matchups be, I wonder?
It's going to be a crazy next seven days for the West's playoff picture, but both the team and their fans have time to take a breath, rest, and regroup. The wildest thing to me about the St. Louis game on Saturday night was that, despite a major difference in attendance, the performative energy in the crowd was not very far off of what we saw in the U.S. Open Cup Final.
Maybe Austin will go "far out" yet. Maybe.
[[1]]: Editor's note: Play-in game is the playoffs. I will be taking no questions at this time.
[[2]]: The way the West is shaking out, that No. 3 seed could be Minnesota, arguably the most beatable of the Top Four, though it could also end up being LAFC, which Seattle is perhaps best equipped of the 5-through-9 teams to beat in a three-match series.
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