Sizing up shot-creating actions (a stat for which Owen Wolff is currently Lionel Messi's equal)

Austin FC hasn't scored a lot yet in 2025.

In fact, the team's scored about as little as you can while getting to six points in four matches. (You could actually do it on a single goal, by winning a match 1-0 and drawing the other three 0-0, but the two they have now isn't much more than one.)

And yet, they're currently sixth in a key metric that leads to shots, and eighth in actual shots — a very different story from the last year, when they were among the lowest in the league in shots and shots on target even though they were converting a great deal (but perhaps not enough) of those shots on target.

Per FBref, shot-creating actions are "the two offensive actions directly leading to a shot, such as passes, take-ons, and drawing fouls." It is possible for a single player to get credit for multiple actions, and you can indeed be credited for a shot-creating action to set up a shot that you yourself take.

After four matches this season, the Quakes lead the league with 120 shot-creating actions, with leader-among-all-players Cristian Espinoza registering 27 on his own. Austin's got 101, good for sixth in the league, setting up 55 shots, though only 13 of those shots are on target, with that 23.6% rate 27th in the league.

Osman Bukari leads Austin with 17 SCAs, and his 4.65 SCA/90 rate is 24th in the league. Owen Wolff is second on the squad with 13. Lionel Messi also has 13 at this stage in the season, but he's only played two of four matches. (He's probably going to get a lot more before 2025 is over.)

But Wolff's 3.67 SCAs/90 is currently besting the SCA/90 rate from true No. 10s like Emil Forsberg, Carles Gil, and Daniel Gazdag, as well as some other impressive names like Robin Lod, Wilfried Zaha, and Jack McGlynn. While Vancouver's Jaden Nelson has an SCA/90 north of eight right now, besting everyone, Wolff's in a broad conversation of current MLS players who are creating.

American Soccer Analysis' goals added metric also loves Wolff; he's currently best on the squad in the passing and dribbling categories making up two of the six measures, adding up to a G+ of 0.08, good for sixth overall on the squad. (G+ still loves Julio Cascante best; he has a rating of 0.21.)

(See this article if you want to get a better sense of goals added and what it shows.)

Yes, we also have to talk about goal-creating actions

As far as goal-creating actions go, defined by FBref as "the two offensive actions directly leading to a goal," Verde only have four collectively as a team, which is tied for 27th in the league with the Galaxy.

Wolff has two of those four, both off of corner kicks. (Brandon Vázquez and Julio Cascante have one apiece, and Cascante's came from the ball that bounced off him and into Bukari for the winning goal in the SKC match. Vázquez somehow got credit for forcing the corner kick that led to the goal in the LAFC match.)

It's no wonder that the three teams leading the Supporters' Shield race right now lead in goal-creating actions with at least 4.25 per 90. The other team that's done that, Orlando, has scored nine goals to equal Vancouver and Miami's output, with Philadelphia (who beat Orlando 4-2 in its opener) leading all with 11.

(Orlando's let in 10 goals so far en route to an early 1-2-1 record, whereas the three teams atop the Shield race each have goal differentials of +5 or better through four matches.)

To show you that sometimes there can be a great disconnect between shot-creating action and goal-creating actions, Marco Reus and Diego Fagundez are two of the top 12 players in the league for SCA/90, with 6.24 and 5.28, but neither have a goal-creating action yet, and the Galaxy, like Austin, only have four GCAs total so far.

So why is this worth knowing?

If a team is generating shot-creating actions, it's creating shots. Last year's Austin team showed that you don't need a lot of shots or even shots on target to create goals if you've got good conversation rates, but it also showed that being on the lower end of the shots count certainly can correlate to low goal totals.

Last season, Austin was last in the league in both shots and shots on target, and finished tied for 25th in goals with 39. Not surprisingly, Austin was last in shot-creating actions, averaging 18.09 per 90. Four matches into 2025, Austin's blowing past that with a 25.25 average.

An 18.09 SCA/90 four matches into 2025 would land around 18th in the league, in between LAFC and Miami, though Miami has about one goal for every eight shot-creating actions at this stage of the season, which is a really good ratio. (Last year's Miami team had 731 SCAs and 78 goals, which is a goal for every 9.37 SCAs.)

That's just one more piece of evidence that Austin's got better offense working in 2025 than it did in 2024, even though it's not showing up in goals as of yet.

(Note: FBref appears to have some connection issues as we're going to press with this. It's usually a reliable site; it's a good thing I pulled these numbers last night.)

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