Numbers and predictions: Assessing the MLS playoffs as they stand

All 16 teams remaining in the 2025 MLS playoffs have played a match, with eight teams in a position to close out their series with the second matches begin on Saturday, while the other eight teams need a win (or a draw and a penalty kick win) to stay alive.

With that perspective in mind, we look at the next eight matches on the calendar — including five on Saturday, and Austin FC's match against LAFC at Q2 Stadium on Sunday — to get a gauge of where we're at.

Saturday, Nov. 1

2:30 pm: NYCFC vs. Charlotte

First match result: Charlotte FC 0, NYCFC 1

Number: 20

That's the number of goal contributions (10 goals, 10 assists) that Wilfried Zaha gave Sir Minty's Knights in 2025, and with Zaha held out of the first match, Charlotte was the only home team to lose its opening playoff match. The delightfully salty DP — check out Charles Boehm's feature on him from April — should give his team a boost as they try to take the series back home. However ...

Prediction: It's a Game 2 in Yankee Stadium, Alonso Martínez scored in Game 1 (as he is wont to do), and I think the soccer gods show fans mercy and end a series that not a lot of people seem especially excited to get to a Game 3 in a football stadium.

4:30 pm: Chicago Fire vs. Philadelphia Union

First match result: Philadelphia Union 2(4), Chicago Fire 2(2)

Number: 2

That's the number of shots on goal Philly had, and the number of goals they had, in their opening playoff match. That was enough to get it to PKs against a surprisingly up-for-it Chicago team, who answered Philly's late goals with even later goals of their own.

Prediction: Back in Bridgeview, playing in the cozier confines of SeatGeek Stadium (which honestly makes for better playoff energy than Soldier Field), I feel like the Fire get it done here and get it back to Chester for a deciding match. Ultimately, the Union's experience and Shield-winning formula likely advance them, but Chicago's pointed in a positive enough direction that playoff appearances could be a regular thing going forward.

6:30 pm: Nashville SC vs. Inter Miami CF

First match result: Inter Miami CF 3, Nashville SC 1

Number: 89.8%

That's the passing accuracy percentage for Miami, the best of any East team in the first-round matches. That clearly owes a lot to Lionel Messi, who got the opening goal in highlight-reel fashion and then added a goal deep into stoppage time.

Prediction: Nashville's good enough to mount a serious charge at home to get this to a Game 3, given the seasons that Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge have had, but Miami advancing – especially with the way Messi's been playing — feels inevitable. But I think the soccer gods want us to have a Game 3. (But I've been wrong about the soccer gods before.

8:30 pm: Portland Timbers FC vs. San Diego FC

First match result: San Diego FC 2, Portland Timbers FC 1

Number: 2.74

SDFC generated 2.74 xG, per Fotmob's numbers, in their 2-1 opening match against the Timbers (who registered 0.83 xG). In their 4-0 drubbing of these same Timbers on Decision Day — which sent them into the 8/9 playoff game and back into the bracket against San Diego — they got 2.98 xG to Portland's 0.73.

Prediction: While the shift to Providence Park may help the Timbers, they're also down a chess piece thanks to Jimer Fory's impressive double yellow. I think the No. 1 seed closes out here, giving the team more time to sort through the Chucky Lozano drama (though they didn't roster him in Game 1 and frankly didn't need him).

8:30 pm: FC Dallas vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC

First match result: Vancouver Whitecaps FC 3, FC Dallas 0

Number: 0

Following a Decision Day win in Vancouver, in which FC Dallas were minus Petar Musa and Logan Farrington, the Texas team returned to BC Place for the playoffs and got zero shots to Vancouver's 22. That's not shots on goal — that's shots, as in ball moving in vague direction of goal, which might be the most bizarre stat of all the first matches.

Prediction: Coach of the Year candidate Jesper Sørensen seems to be managing his minor center back crisis just fine. I predict a robust-for-Frisco 12,000 turns out to see the Toros' season end with a whimper.

Sunday, Nov. 2

5:30 pm: Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati

First match result: FC Cincinnati 1, Columbus Crew 0

Number: 78

It took until the 78th minute for Kévin Denkey to break a tense, scoreless deadlock, indicative of a series much more equally matched than the 2-7 seedings would indicate. Joe Lowery, in ranking the series' likelihoods to get to Game 3, put this one second after Seattle-Minnesota, noting a lack of chance creation on both sides.

Prediction: Given how much fun a Hell is Real playoff series should be, we all deserve a Game 3, even though Game 1 was a slog.

7:45 pm: Austin FC vs. LAFC

First match result: LAFC 2, Austin FC 1

Number: 2 ... and 7

Son Heung-Min was held to just two shots, as Austin FC's defense did largely well to bottle him up in front of goal. However, Son was able to do some string-pulling in the midfield, allowing Bouanga to get a match-high seven shots, including the shot that Nathan Ordaz somehow got on the end of for the match winner. As has been the case for Verde throughout the season, they've mustered largely effective defensive stands throughout matches, only to have one or two lapses in the midst of those undo all the good work.

Prediction: A cagey draw and a Brad Stuver save or two to eke out a penalty kick win to send it back to Los Angeles feels right. I do fear that the dam eventually bursts and Son and Bouanga go off for multiple goals, but I hope that if it happens, it happens in Game 3 so Verde can at least get a happy home sendoff.

Monday, Nov. 3

9:45 pm: Seattle Sounders FC vs. Minnesota United FC

First match result: Minnesota United FC 0 (3), Seattle Sounders FC 0 (2)

Number: 3

After a scoreless draw that opened the door to the Sounders poaching a 1-0 lead, both Roldan brothers struck the woodwork in the subsequent penalty kick round, as did late Loons sub Julian Gressel, but the other Loons did just enough to secure the home result.

Prediction: Given that I have Seattle advancing out of this round, and I'm not alone in that, Seattle needs to win at home in a match that starts quite late for a Monday night for more than half the country (including Minnesota fans). But look at the good luck charm the Sounders have ready!

I feel like this one gets back to Minnesota, but I'm no longer confident Seattle advances.

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