'We need to be better': Moving past a Decision Day loss into the playoffs

Even after purposefully holding two key players out in a match that had no bearing on Austin FC's playoff fortunes, head coach Nico Estévez indicated he learned some things about his team in a 2-1 loss to the San Jose Earthquakes on Saturday night.

"Defensively, we had a good first half," he assessed. "I think we held them very well in the second half. I think we were too deep, too early, and we weren't able to build presence in moments. I think it's something that we have to take a look [at], and then the goals that we conceded are avoidable ... we learned that for what is coming, that we have to be better on those crosses and better on being in the wall and not opening the wall to make the opponent to score."

Indeed, Austin conceded a goal in the 74th minute in the run of play, with a lively Josef Martínez finally breaking through on one of his three shots, contributing to a staggering 26-4 shot advantage for the hosts. Then, three minutes later, Niko Tsakiris sent his free kick through Verde's wall and off Brad Stuver's fingertips to score what would stand as the match-winner, greatly displeasing the goalkeeper.

Estévez attributed the lopsidedness in shots to how the Quakes approached the match.

"When a team like San Jose, it's their last chance to make the playoff. you could see the lineup also was very brave [with a] very attacking mindset," he observed. "We knew that they're going to push, they're going to go after us, and I think we've learned how to also manage some moments in this game, but we need to be better in order that we don't consider those many shots."

Noting that the Quakes made a defender-for-attacker sub late in the game, with Preston Judd spelling Jamar Ricketts, he added. "The game was open. We had some counter attacks that if we do well or they don't call offside ... in some of them, it could be a one-v-one situation with a goalkeeper and you score the second goal, and it changes completely the dynamic of the game."

But Estévez left Myrto Uzuni on the bench, and left the injured Osman Bukari and Diego Rubio off the roster altogether to (hopefully) recover for the playoffs — and the most potent offensive sub he did make, CJ Fodrey, wasn't able to deliver the late-game heroics he's mustered in other recent matches.

Austin's loss came on a Decision Day that delivered a good deal of unpredictability, with Dallas beating Vancouver to vault past the play-in game places, LA Galaxy beating Minnesota, and Colorado drawing against LAFC (getting an 87th-minute goal that would have sent them to the playoffs before LAFC's 90th-minute goal moved them back down).

Quakes players (alongside Verde players) stayed on the field to watch the closing moments of St. Louis City SC hosting Real Salt Lake on the PayPal Stadium screen after their match concluded, hoping RSL would concede just one more goal to deliver them into the playoffs.

That goal would not come, and San Jose finished the season in 10th despite getting the win needed to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

37 and -8: Somehow, playoff numbers

Verde finished the season with 37 goals, thanks to Owen Wolff getting the game opener from distance to finish with 15 goal contributions (seven goals and eight assists) on the year. Considering there are two own goals in the mix, 15 Verde goal scorers combined for 35 goals in 2025.

Verde's total of 37 is the lowest goal output of any MLS team making the playoffs, and its -8 goal differential is only "bested" by RSL's -11. Put another way, you need to add the goals from Wolff, Uzuni, Bukari, Rubio, Brandon Vázquez, Guilherme Biro, Besard Šabović, Dani Pereira, and Jon Gallagher to equal Lionel Messi's output in 2025. Put another way, Messi and Luis Suarez has outscored all of Austin FC, as has another dynamic duo, Nashville SC's Sam Surridge and Hany Mukhtar.

And, to put an early spotlight on Verde's first-round opponent, Denis Bouanga and Son Heung-min have combined for 33 goals — including Son getting nine in just 10 appearances — to come close to the Austin squad's total.

"If I'm honest, I would like to score more goals and concede less ... but I also want to make the playoffs," Estévez said. "And probably there are teams that have scored more goals than us and are out of the playoff, and for me, it's game by game, and then after if you score a lot of goals, that will be awesome."

Indeed, San Jose scored 60 on the season with a goal differential of -3, but Austin carving out exactly two more wins (and the same number of draws) was the difference between 6th and 10th. Had the Quakes beat Verde in Austin in August, they would have been in a three-way tie on points with Austin and Dallas, likely sending Verde to the play-in game on goal differential.

"I think we've had games where we should score more goals and we didn't, and other games that we didn't deserve to score more goals and we did it," he added. "Look at today, the goal that we scored is shot from outside the box, but it's also adeflection, and you have that part of the luck to score ... It something that we'll have to do better in the playoffs, obviously, and also, we'll have to find ways to do better for next season."

Though the U.S. Open Cup final loss did hover over this final part of the season, the trendlines heading into a tough playoff series against LAFC aren't optimal. Verde has now lost three of their final four regular-season games and four of their last six.

Conversely, LAFC are 6-1-1 in their final eight – though that sole loss was to Austin FC.

Moving past it

Wolff was made available after the match, and gave the impression that this loss isn't going to stick with the team long.

"We're a little disappointed with how tonight went, but that's something that we're just gonna have to move past, because we have to start focusing on the playoffs and LAFC," he said. "We're excited to be in this year's run for the playoffs and we're going to do the best that we can."

Regarding how the teams approached the match, he said, "San Jose has a different type of intensity and aggression, and I think we certainly were matching it. It's a back-and-forth game. It's not easy. But, yeah, we give up two goals, and we're disappointed about it. It's something that we could avoid. So we're gonna go back, look at it, and learn from it."

And while it's an improved LAFC team Austin will face in the playoffs, Wolff indicated that there might be a blueprint for playoff success baked into the two 1-0 wins Verde engineered in the regular season.

"We're gonna have to look back at the games when we played them, and played them and and see what worked and what didn't work and ... we're gonna do the best that we can to hurt them as well when we're away and when we're at home."

Waiting for the schedule

MLS has indicated that, following the play-in game doubleheader on Wednesday, the first round will start Friday, and Austin fans might expect their first two playoff matches to be Monday night football affairs — though we won't know that conclusively until later today.

San Diego FC, winning the West in its debut season (thanks to pasting Portland 4-0 in its finale while 10-man Vancouver lost to FC Dallas), will face the winner of the Portland-RSL match, while Vancouver's slide to second means it'll bring back its Decision Day opponent to BC Place to start the best-of-three series.

San Diego vaulting over Vancouver means that the Seattle-Minnesota series winner will have the chance to upset SDFC – and if it's Seattle, that could set up a Cascadia final in the Western Conference.

On Austin's side of the bracket, if the Texas teams upset their West Coast opponents, Austin would host Dallas in the Western Conference semis, repeating Verde's feat in 2022. And that would be, barring the play-in team reaching the West finals, Austin's last opportunity to host a 2025 playoff match.

Due to MLS rules basing home field for MLS Cup on Supporters' Shield standings, Austin's one of four West teams that would travel to the East stadium for the championship regardless of which East team emerges.

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