'We didn't do it today': On Austin FC muffing a first chance to clinch a 2025 playoff spot

Barring an unthinkable collapse, Austin FC will make the 2025 MLS postseason, despite a 3-1 loss to Real Salt Lake on Saturday night. Head coach Nico Estévez doesn't yet know if it will come next Saturday with a win over St. Louis City SC — the most direct and resolute way to do it — but is now shifting focus to Wednesday's crucial Open Cup final against Nashville SC.

"There are ... multiple ways to clinch the playoff," he said. "We didn't do it today. We wanted to do it today. We couldn't. We just have to move forward. And right now we shift to the Open Cup, because we cannot do anything today any more to clinch the playoff."

Describing the game as "a good training session for what is coming," Estévez did project confidence about what's to come on Wednesday.

"We're going to give everything that we have until we cannot move on the field to bring the trophy to our fans," he said. "And then I don't have any doubt about the response of the team, because we've been responding the whole year in difficult situations, and this is an exceptional situation, an amazing opportunity in club history, and everyone is locked in and with the belief that we can win this final."

One curious observation

In response to my question about Besard Šabović's performance — redeemed somewhat by Austin's lone late goal after he deflected in Real Salt Lake's opening goal (which was credited to Braian Ojeda), Estévez indicated that we shouldn't look too much into one player over the span of this 90 minutes. (In which, to be fair and perhaps underpinning his answer, the roster was rotated more than it would be were there not two matches looming in the next seven days.)

"In this particular game, any individual judgment and analysis of any of the players I think is not fair," he said. "It is difficult to play these kinds of games. I think he was very unlucky in the goal we conceded, he grew into the game, and he got better and more confident, and he got in a good position to score the goal. He's a player that has a lot of talent, has a lot of good qualities, and we have to keep helping him to have confidence that he can help the team, and he can be an important part of this Austin FC club."

To his credit, Šabović topped all Austin FC players in the American Soccer Analysis goals added metric, looking at total player contributions via a formula that can sometimes bring head-scratching results.

Other datasets highlighting the teams' performances weren't flattering to Verde, including a momentum chart that decidedly tipped RSL's way — especially in the critical periods on either side of halftime in which the hosts put up two goals that Estévez admitted his team couldn't recover from.

One bright spot in the match: Brad Stuver inched closer to the record for most regular-season saves in a five-season span, but didn't actually tie or surpass Tony Meola on Saturday — leaving it to do in front of his home fans. His four saves Saturday brought him to 619, which means his first save against St. Louis – eliminated from playoff contention on Saturday with a 3-0 loss to LAFC — will tie the record, and his second will break it. (I'm expecting the home fans to respond accordingly.)

But first, Wednesday.

'We're going to go win it'

Dani Pereira projected a fair bit of confidence about the approaching Open Cup final.

"We all know what we're playing on Wednesday, and I think that's kind of why tonight went how it went," he said. "I feel like we were like, us as players, were a little more focused on Wednesday, in a good way, but [we'll] move past this game, and we all know what we're playing on Wednesday, which is our first final in history, and we're going to go win it."

Pereira also indicated, as Estévez did earlier in the press conference, that Verde is playoff bound despite Saturday's setback, and said getting an x next to the team's name in the table will be "a huge relief" when it happens.

"That's one of our goals that we set earlier in the year, and we're right there," he said. "We've just got to win one more game, and even if some other teams lose points, we'll still make it. But the good thing is that it depends on us and not ... on other teams."

Pereira did reminisce about 2022 and getting to second in the West during the regular season.

"We talked about how you don't really get to be a second seed in the playoff. You don't really get to play playoff games at home. And it's true, like, it doesn't happen often."

Regarding getting into the playoffs — which will most likely involve Verde playing all but one first-round match at home for as long as they're involved, he added, "It's just something we've got to take in, to just be grateful and take the opportunity that is right there when it happens. You know, anything in the playoffs can happen."

Yet he didn't want to make a case for what Austin could do in the playoffs quite yet, as I proposed to him in one of my questions, preferring instead to bring the focus back to Wednesday.

"We have a final first," he said. "We can talk again when we make it to the playoffs."

But then, toward the end, he did express some level of confidence.

"I think Wednesday will decide how our rest of the season goes," he said. "This is one of our biggest games in history, so we've just got to have full focus on that," adding that they need to approach the final like they approached their semifinal win over Minnesota. "When everybody's at their best ... I think we can beat anyone."

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