'We are not there yet': An imperfect Austin FC team gets an early-season (dare we say it) signature win

If I were to tell you that Austin FC rolled into BMO Stadium on Saturday afternoon getting just 33.9% possession, getting roughly half of its 1.0 total xG on a flubbed Myrto Uzuni shot from six yards out, and mustering just three shots on goal en route to its fourth straight 1-0 outcome in this strange-so-far 2025 season, you might assume that Verde fell to a Denis Bouanga goal.

Oh, and I'll share another few bits of news to convince you Verde fell short: They've yet to score a goal from open play four matches into the 2025 season, and their two new designated players — Uzuni and Brandon Vázquez — have zero goal contributions.

Yet, despite the statistical disadvantages, Austin FC got a 12th-minute set piece goal from Guilherme Biro — off a corner kick from early Verde MVP candidate Owen Wolff — for its first road win of 2025.

There might be prettier wins coming. Certainly, this team is capable of a multi-goal win, and certainly that's going to happen at some stage in its evolution.

But given LAFC's prowess and Verde's traditional challenges at BMO Stadium, it's not entirely laughable to call this a signature win.

However, in considering my question about whether this was that, Austin FC head coach Nico Estévez said a lot about his new squad exhibiting the right mentality but still being a work in progress.

"We can talk about a lot of things that we're missing," he assessed. "We should play better with the ball. We we should have more calm in some of the decisions in the in the attacking third ... There are a lot of things that we have to improve, winning or losing, but we know that the important thing is I'm not worried about them scoring. They're gonna score goals. And then people are going to be very happy when they score goals."

After talking about the team's improved chance creation — which included the Uzuni chance (.48 xG per MLS and .24 xG per FBref) standing as either side's highest-percentage attempt all match — Estévez maintained that Verde, in their current form, are no LAFC.

"If you think that we are right now at the same level as LAFC, we are not being fair. LAFC, as I said the other day, is a team that consistently wins, consistently is a winning team, and we are not ... We are not there yet. We are building that. But it takes time. The courage, the determination, the connection, the sacrifice that the team showed, it shows the mentality of a team that wants to win, but in the middle of everything, we still need to improve. We have to play better."

Let's review the data

What jumps out from the MLS Analytics visualizations is how Verde dealt with LAFC's home crowd-fueled attack.

The defense played much lower than LAFC, and though both teams were similar in their attacking-half defensive actions, Verde played much deeper in their own half, including two memorable moments between minutes 77 and 80 that showed Verde's tenacity.

The first, of course, was Brad Stuver coming out of his goal area to collect a ball and getting up-ended by Timothy Tillman – leading Stuver to express his great displeasure and both players getting yellow cards as a result of the exchange.

The second, around the 79:20 mark, started with Dani Pereira attempting an ill-advised pass that was jumped by Denis Bouanga. Pereira was able to hustle back and get an interception that then allowed Jon Gallagher to clear the ball out of bounds.

While it's good that Verde was able to avert disaster in that moment, it's now the second straight match that Pereira has gifted a scoring opportunity to a player who scored at least 15 MLS goals in 2024. That is a dangerous trend should it continue.

Here's another indication of what Verde faced (and created) on Saturday.

Though it might be too early to worry about Osman Bukari — or is this maybe a Ramadan/fasting issue that resolves when Eid comes on March 29? — as well as central midfield play, these graphics show final third passes primarily coming from the non-Bukari side of the field and passes into the box coming from the wings.

The shots map (with MLS Analytics showing more xG distance in its Opta-sourced stats than MLS or FBref) shows that half of the 10 shots came from outside the box, with only four (two on target) coming from optimal areas inside the box and in front of goal.

"We just were trying to be more pragmatic and trying to get a result," Estévez said post-match. "And this is on me. I think this time we talk about we have to be more aggressive, we have to be more brave to win away. We can't just defend. It was [in] really good moments that we got that, but ... you have an opponent that didn't allow us to do much more. We'll learn from that, and then we'll grow as a team."

Short and to the point

Owen Wolff, who got the corner kick assist in his 100th match with Verde, was tapped at the player to speak to media, and was as truncated as Estévez was verbose.

"Being able to get more comfortable within the team and around the guys as well, for sure, has helped me elevate my game," Wolff said about the excellent start he's had to the season, with his two assists putting him in the goal contributions lead for Verde's young season. "Being able to learn from the coaching staff and the new players that we have brought in also helps a lot."

He didn't shy away from a direct question about that coaching change and its impact on him.

"I've known Nico for quite a while," Wolff said, as the two Austin head coaches were assistants together in Columbus and with the U.S. Men's National Team. "Being able to learn from Nico's ideas there, they have similarities and differences from what I've had in the past with my dad and the coaches that we had last year. [It's] just being able to be open and willing to learn from Nico and his ideas."

He also was part of a new-look midfield, with Besard Šabović replacing Pereira as a starter for the first time this season.

"I think it's important that we learn how to play with each other," Wolff said of the change. "For sure, it's going to be a long year, and I'm sure there's going to be a lot of rotation, so being able to work on that chemistry and that connection is important for us."

The standings

Heading into Sunday's matches – including a Timbers-Galaxy match that would need to be a Timbers rout to change the standings — Austin's 7th in the West with a 2w-2L-0D record and a 0 goal differential, with two goals scored and only two goals allowed. While they're six points off the pace set by red-hot Vancouver, they're also grouped with LAFC, RSL, and San Jose on six points, and ahead of Seattle and their two Texas rivals.

While the standings don't mean much at this stage — unless you've fallen off the pace like a Houston or a Galaxy — Verde are in a decent spot right now. Keeping pace with the pack and getting a road win helps their playoff chances, even though it's far too early to be thinking about playoffs – except for those teams that have already dug themselves a hole.

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