'I don't care about the stats today': Assessing an unusual-for-Austin FC two-goal win
Judging from what was on the scoreboard, it's the best Austin FC win in weeks or even months. Is it time to believe in the team's potential again?
One of the most impressive things about Austin FC's 2-0 win over Colorado Rapids on Saturday night – the team's first league-play win in 49 days, its first two-goal match in league play in 76 days, and its first two-goal league play win in 287 days – was how they weathered the Rapids' attack.
Despite the hosts getting 19 shots (five on target), and mounting an xG of 3.7 per MLS' count, Verde secured the shutout and returned home from the Rockies just three points off the pace of 4th-place Seattle (playing Vancouver tonight) and fifth-place Portland. I asked Austin FC head coach Nico Estévez how that happened, and he started with one simple word before defending an offensive performance that wasn't being attacked.
"Soccer," he remarked. "I don't care about the stats today, because if we capitalize on the chances that we had at the beginning, it is no game, but this is a really, really difficult place to play. Really, really difficult. Not a lot of teams can win [here]. It's my first win here as a coach, and in four years, it's really, really difficult. It's chaotic, it's altitude, and I think we showed personality.
"We probably had our best expected goals away, that you didn't mention, and then in one PK that didn't go, a clear PK, and we're happy because we got the reward that we didn't in May, when we deserved to win more games because we had more expected goals than our opponent. And this is why it's really, really difficult, this job, this sport, and sometimes it's easier to see from the outside."
(He then went on to talk about Seattle's good fortune in facing a Vancouver team that will be missing multiple starters on Sunday night thanks to illness suffered playing the Concacaf Champions Cup final in Mexico last week, the second straight year that's happened to an MLS team.)
Technically, Austin players didn't score both those goals, as the insurance goal came on a corner kick own-goal, with Rafael Navarro and Brendan Hines-Ike going up for a ball that definitely ended with the ball caroming off the back of Navarro's head, but likely would have been scored had Hines-Ike been able to cleanly get to the ball — his positioning on the play was fantastic, and Owen Wolff did well to deliver the ball to him.
A boost for Bukari
Osman Bukari engineered the first goal, credited to Mikkel Desler and assisted by Dani Pereira, and played one of his best overall matches in Verde. (Here's a reminder that he had the best goal of his MLS career that last time Austin beat an MLS opponent 2-0 — again, 287 days ago, against Nashville.)
Buakri also set up a free kick that Brandon Vázquez very nearly got in (almost mirroring the goal he scored against Atlanta earlier this season) in the 50th minute — evading Sam Bassett, who took several attempts to get close enough to him to bring him down to impede his progress.
"One of the things that we talked about this week is that we have more quality than what we're showing, and then some of the games that we're playing, we're doing okay, but we have more quality than just doing okay — and it is the moment now to show the quality that we have," Estévez reflected. "And I think every player took it personally in that sense, and they did their job really well, and they showed that quality, and although it wasn't perfect, because we were missing some passes, some chances that we created well, and we have to keep improving and asking the players to show their quality there. In the case of Buka, I think he showed why he is an important player for us."
"Today, I was very, very happy about Buka," said Desler. "I also told him that his work rate today, especially defensively as well, was incredible. He was a beast, man against man, and he won his duels. So I'm very pleased and happy about that. That makes my job so much more easier. And I told him that, and I hope that's something that we all can continue building on."
ASA vs. MLS
Though the xG number on the MLS site cleaved pretty closely to what Apple TV reported (3.46 to 1.66 in the Rapids' favor), MLS Analytics (using American Soccer Analysis' xG values) told a different story, with Austin actually winning the xG battle per their metrics, despite what the distribution says.
You can see from the shot map, despite the xG calculation discrepancies, all that Austin's defense had to weather — including a set piece near halftime leaving Josh Atencio alone, with a rebound falling to him 12 yards out, taking a shot that Desler was able to head away, saving a goal after scoring one.
Here's another interesting graphic from the match.
Clearly, Austin had a strong start but as the game went on, from about the midway point of the first half on, the Rapids gathered more momentum while building out (as the passing map shows) very balanced distribution and very advanced distribution.
By contrast, even with Bukari's work on the right side, playing more advanced than Vázquez, look at how much more Verde did on the left. Here's more passing data to parce.
And as further evidence of Verde defending deeper after getting the initial goal, here's the defensive actions map.
As we've seen earlier in the season, this is a way that Verde can win. And although I didn't get to ask about it — despite how Estévez took my first question, I kept my pair of questions positive and centered on this much-needed win — the absence of Myrto Uzuni wasn't felt.
Or, rather, it might have been felt more positively, given how much of the attack went through the left side, with Guilherme Biro leading all Verde players with 68 touches (per FotMob) and serving up the most passes into the final third (per MLS Analytics).
Certainly, when Uzuni returns from international break, Estévez will need to continue on the project of making him work with the rest of the offense, though on Saturday, the offense worked better than it had in recent matches where Uzuni was present yet ineffective.
But that's a next week problem. For now, it's a win, and a two-goal win at that. It's worth pausing and enjoying it before the next reasonably-paced June match arrives. (June, so far, has been much more enjoyable than May.)
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. You can comment here if you’re a subscriber, or reach out via Bluesky.
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One of the most impressive things about Austin FC's 2-0 win over Colorado Rapids on Saturday night – the team's first league-play win in 49 days, its first two-goal match in league play in 76 days, and its first two-goal league play win in 287 days – was how they weathered the Rapids' attack.
Despite the hosts getting 19 shots (five on target), and mounting an xG of 3.7 per MLS' count, Verde secured the shutout and returned home from the Rockies just three points off the pace of 4th-place Seattle (playing Vancouver tonight) and fifth-place Portland. I asked Austin FC head coach Nico Estévez how that happened, and he started with one simple word before defending an offensive performance that wasn't being attacked.
"Soccer," he remarked. "I don't care about the stats today, because if we capitalize on the chances that we had at the beginning, it is no game, but this is a really, really difficult place to play. Really, really difficult. Not a lot of teams can win [here]. It's my first win here as a coach, and in four years, it's really, really difficult. It's chaotic, it's altitude, and I think we showed personality.
"We probably had our best expected goals away, that you didn't mention, and then in one PK that didn't go, a clear PK, and we're happy because we got the reward that we didn't in May, when we deserved to win more games because we had more expected goals than our opponent. And this is why it's really, really difficult, this job, this sport, and sometimes it's easier to see from the outside."
(He then went on to talk about Seattle's good fortune in facing a Vancouver team that will be missing multiple starters on Sunday night thanks to illness suffered playing the Concacaf Champions Cup final in Mexico last week, the second straight year that's happened to an MLS team.)
Technically, Austin players didn't score both those goals, as the insurance goal came on a corner kick own-goal, with Rafael Navarro and Brendan Hines-Ike going up for a ball that definitely ended with the ball caroming off the back of Navarro's head, but likely would have been scored had Hines-Ike been able to cleanly get to the ball — his positioning on the play was fantastic, and Owen Wolff did well to deliver the ball to him.
A boost for Bukari
Osman Bukari engineered the first goal, credited to Mikkel Desler and assisted by Dani Pereira, and played one of his best overall matches in Verde. (Here's a reminder that he had the best goal of his MLS career that last time Austin beat an MLS opponent 2-0 — again, 287 days ago, against Nashville.)
Buakri also set up a free kick that Brandon Vázquez very nearly got in (almost mirroring the goal he scored against Atlanta earlier this season) in the 50th minute — evading Sam Bassett, who took several attempts to get close enough to him to bring him down to impede his progress.
"One of the things that we talked about this week is that we have more quality than what we're showing, and then some of the games that we're playing, we're doing okay, but we have more quality than just doing okay — and it is the moment now to show the quality that we have," Estévez reflected. "And I think every player took it personally in that sense, and they did their job really well, and they showed that quality, and although it wasn't perfect, because we were missing some passes, some chances that we created well, and we have to keep improving and asking the players to show their quality there. In the case of Buka, I think he showed why he is an important player for us."
"Today, I was very, very happy about Buka," said Desler. "I also told him that his work rate today, especially defensively as well, was incredible. He was a beast, man against man, and he won his duels. So I'm very pleased and happy about that. That makes my job so much more easier. And I told him that, and I hope that's something that we all can continue building on."
ASA vs. MLS
Though the xG number on the MLS site cleaved pretty closely to what Apple TV reported (3.46 to 1.66 in the Rapids' favor), MLS Analytics (using American Soccer Analysis' xG values) told a different story, with Austin actually winning the xG battle per their metrics, despite what the distribution says.
You can see from the shot map, despite the xG calculation discrepancies, all that Austin's defense had to weather — including a set piece near halftime leaving Josh Atencio alone, with a rebound falling to him 12 yards out, taking a shot that Desler was able to head away, saving a goal after scoring one.
Here's another interesting graphic from the match.
Clearly, Austin had a strong start but as the game went on, from about the midway point of the first half on, the Rapids gathered more momentum while building out (as the passing map shows) very balanced distribution and very advanced distribution.
By contrast, even with Bukari's work on the right side, playing more advanced than Vázquez, look at how much more Verde did on the left. Here's more passing data to parce.
And as further evidence of Verde defending deeper after getting the initial goal, here's the defensive actions map.
As we've seen earlier in the season, this is a way that Verde can win. And although I didn't get to ask about it — despite how Estévez took my first question, I kept my pair of questions positive and centered on this much-needed win — the absence of Myrto Uzuni wasn't felt.
Or, rather, it might have been felt more positively, given how much of the attack went through the left side, with Guilherme Biro leading all Verde players with 68 touches (per FotMob) and serving up the most passes into the final third (per MLS Analytics).
Certainly, when Uzuni returns from international break, Estévez will need to continue on the project of making him work with the rest of the offense, though on Saturday, the offense worked better than it had in recent matches where Uzuni was present yet ineffective.
But that's a next week problem. For now, it's a win, and a two-goal win at that. It's worth pausing and enjoying it before the next reasonably-paced June match arrives. (June, so far, has been much more enjoyable than May.)
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. You can comment here if you’re a subscriber, or reach out via Bluesky.
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