'It's been a horrible week for us': Assessing a third straight loss (while still on the cusp of making the playoffs)

In the span of eight days, Austin FC has lost two regular-season matches — both giving the team the opportunity to officially qualify for the playoffs and avoid the No. 8 vs. No. 9 play-in match — and a U.S. Open Cup final.

Saturday's 3-1 loss to St. Louis City SC continued a late-season swoon that's been the hallmark of past Verde seasons — even 2022, in which an ill-timed three-match losing streak delayed their official entry into the postseason, where they ended up just 90 minutes from MLS Cup.

Head coach Nico Estévez was frank about how his team is feeling.

"I think it's a horrible week for us," he said. "Horrible. I mean, it's terrible. ... you cannot know how we feel. We feel really bad ... but this is sports, this is life. Then life hits you, and you have to keep going. And we've had two moments in the season where we couldn't get the results that we wanted. One was in May, playing [in the] Open Cup [for] two games. The other one was now, playing two games of Open Cup."

Austin's last three-match losing streak started with an April loss in Houston and included losses to Minnesota and Cincinnati to start their winless-in-league-play May. In that run, Austin's lone goal came on a Brandon Vázquez penalty kick as they were outscored 7-1 in that ignoble stretch before reeling off four straight draws in league play — while also getting an Open Cup win over the Dynamo.

"Playing two competitions, it's really difficult," he said. "As you could see, I don't think we were ready. Thank God we did a good job in the summer and put a lot of points in the table."

Estévez then noted Austin could still get into the playoffs this Sunday should two match results break their way – and Real Salt Lake was hanging onto a 1-0 lead over Colorado they'd ultimately keep as he spoke.

"We wanted to do [it] winning for ourselves and not looking at the results, but we knew this game, winning or losing the final [on Wednesday], was going to be really, really, really difficult, mentally, [and] physically even."

Estévez felt his team — giving up a pair of Marcel Hartel goals on sequences initiated by a Verde throw-in and a Verde goal kick — didn't have their usual composure, much of that being circumstantial to their mental state.

"We had a lot of pressure today, because the guys wanted to win, and even the guys wanted to clinch. And you could see some rushing balls, loose passes, missed controls, also with the fatigue, mentally and physically from the game on Wednesday," he observed. "This is why we tried to do some changes in the line now, to put some fresh legs there. But it's tough. It's tough," before noting that the team can now focus on just one competition the rest of the way.

As you can tell from the match data visualizations (from, as ever, the excellent Catalina Bush), things did not go Verde's way on Saturday, despite their field tilt and possession advantage.

'At the end of the day, we lost'

Goalkeeper Brad Stuver dispensed with his usual measured analysis, opting for a bluntness that spoke volumes about the team's collective frustration and disappointment.

"We didn't win our duels in the first half," he said, "In the first half, we gave up two goals off our throw-in and our goal kick. Obviously, the third one, we're pushing to try to get back in the game and we got caught out in transition. But I think we had just two shots on goal all night, and it's not good enough."

He added that the performance on the night gave the players "a lot to reflect on."

Asked about whether performance or mindset led to the loss, Stuver flatly said, "We lost," before providing more specific food for thought ahead of the final two matches of the season.

"You saw the guys out there ... you can tell me whether it was work ethic, you can tell me whether it was bad passes, you can tell me if it just wasn't clinical enough. At the end of the day, we lost."

Pressed further about how the players are processing the difficult week, he assured us there's plenty that we won't learn directly.

"That'll stay in the locker room," he revealed. "There's a lot that gets said in the locker room, because this group is a tight-knit group. There's a lot that needs to be said internally, and it's how we respond from what gets said inside."

He also said that the team's culture is strong enough that players can absorb criticism.

"This group is strong enough where you can say things that are on your mind, and people don't take it personally. The thing about this locker room is that you have to be able to accept criticism when it's at you, you have to be able to give criticism when it's needed, and obviously, that's it's in the hopes that this group becomes better. Nothing is ever personal. It's not trying to bring your teammate down. Everything that's said in the locker room is only to better the group, and better each individual, so that we come out on top."

The playoff picture

Stuver described the play-in game as "something we don't want to touch" because it drops a midweek game into the schedule before a weekend match on the road (as well as, which Stuver didn't specifically point out, sending the winner to face the No. 1 seed).

With the loss and other results around the league on Saturday night, Verde somehow stayed in 6th place. But they're now officially locked out of the top four, and Seattle needs just two points in its final two matches (hosting RSL and at NYCFC) to secure a place in the West's top five.

Here's a quick review of what awaits Austin and the teams still in playoff contention, all the way down to 11th-place San Jose.

(Houston, by the way, was officially eliminated last night with its loss to San Diego and Dallas' win over LA Galaxy, with RSL coming through against Colorado to complete a second elimination scenario. If you need some schadenfreude this morning, feast your eyes and ears on what our friend Victor Araiza captured post-match.)

Since win total is the first tiebreaker when teams are tied on points, I've added those to the equation. You can see from this how much a single win in those final two contests would help Verde, and why Decision Day might be a difference maker after all.

• No. 6 Austin, 44 points/12 wins, two games remaining (vs. LAFC, at San Jose), max of 50 points possible
• No. 7 Portland, 44 points/11 wins, one game remaining (vs. San Diego), max of 47 points possible
• No. 8 Dallas, 41 points/10 wins, two games remaining (at LA Galaxy, at Vancouver), max of 47 points possible
• No. 9 RSL, 40 points/12 wins, two games remaining (at Seattle, at St. Louis), max of 46 points possible
• No. 10 Colorado, 40 points/11 wins, one game remaining (vs. LAFC), max of 43 points possible
• No. 11 San Jose, 38 points/10 wins, two games remaining (at Vancouver, vs. Austin), max of 44 points possible

Should Vancouver beat or draw the Quakes today (5 pm kickoff, if you want to tune in), Austin officially makes the playoffs, but could drop all the way to 9th if they don't muster more than a single point in their final two matches.

It's also possible that the 45-point threshold isn't necessary to reach the West playoffs this year, whereas in the East, 10th-place New York Red Bulls have been eliminated (snapping their 15-year playoff streak), and can still get to 46 points with a win in its final game, whereas Columbus currently sits in 9th with 51 points, able to get to 54.

(Nashville, currently 6th in the East, would be 4th in the West with its current point total.)

So, in short, your assignment today is to root against the Quakes (which I know you won't have a problem doing), and then attention should turn to whether Verde can execute a season sweep of LAFC (having beaten them 1-0 back in March).

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