'We have to feel this pain of losing': Is Austin FC destined for a repeat of last season?

With 19 shots to Colorado's six, four shots on targets to the Rapids' three, and a higher xG amassed over the course of 90 minutes on Saturday night, you might assume that Austin FC got a home win by outclassing the visitors in those key stats.

And yet, Verde lost a 1-0 contest for the second straight match, confounding head coach Nico Estévez in a way reminiscent of how his predecessor was confounded for much of last season.

"Well, after 21 shots, 19 crosses, it's difficult to not score a goal, right?" he began. "I mean, the numbers are there, we were there.

"The positive is we improved a lot of the offensive plan, more than we did against Portland, even more than what we did against Kansas [City], and we played a team like Colorado, a playoff team last year, had an amazing season, played in Conca[caf] Champions [Cup], did a really good job against LAFC," Estévez reasoned. "It was a test for us. I think we had the energy. I think we competed, we fought, and it was just the detail, the thin line of us scoring a couple of the chances that we had, and we could win the game, and everyone will be very happy."

Even though Myrto Uzuni came close on two close-in first-half chances, the final scoreline led Estévez to assess, "It's the moment that we have to feel this pain of losing, and the greatest has been, throughout the pain of losing ... how you respond, and how you come up after what is coming. Because I don't feel in the last two games, we deserved to have zero points."

Delving through the data

While it was a frustrating night that left many fans to theorize what could be happening — Is it just chemistry that hasn't had time to fully bubble and fizz yet? Are we witnessing more poisoned fruit from the Berhalter coaching tree? Is the midfield flawed and to blame? — it's important to remember that xG is a measure of shots times quality, and Rapids goalkeeper Zack Steffen came up with stops on the collection of quality chances Austin created.

Here's the shot map from Saturday night.

Though Verde still had six of 19 shots outside the box, including one from the edge of the MLS Stats graphic, this map shows an appreciable concentration of shots inside the box. While the offensive patterns looked chaotic and disconnected at times, Verde's attackers were getting into good positions.

Looking at passes into the box, Austin outmatched Colorado, and had a balanced approach reflecting the different modalities they used — it wasn't just crosses from the flanks hoping to find an unguarded head or a stray far post runner.

However, if you look at the comparative passing maps, the Rapids are clearly more direct, and on their goal, a very skilled midfielder got into position to send his assist to a very skilled forward who can finish when isolated one-on-one with a goalkeeper.

The thickness of lines, for those unfamiliar with passing maps, reflect the frequency of passes between players. Note the contrast between the thickness of lines among the Rapids' attackers – as well as the advanced position of left back Ian Murphy and later Anderson Rosa – compared to what Verde was doing.

The Mikkel Desler injury around minute 70 was unfortunate – and though it's dependent on what the MRI on Monday says, Estévez confirmed it's a hamstring injury (which we saw with our own eyes given how Desler went down and how he clutched it upon going down), and my soccer-informed estimation is it will be in the three-to-four week window of recovery.

The unfortunate sub occasion did give Jon Gallagher a chance to enter the match, and his connection with Osman Bukari was encouraging. They didn't have the time together to fully affect the match, but watch their linkup in upcoming matches (assuming Gally starts at right back next week against LAFC) to see that relationship flourish.

The VARlington rug pull

Twice in the match — for a 51st-minute takedown of Uzuni in the box by Chidozie Awaziem (who became the successor to the least-liked-by-Verde Rapids defender post recently occupied by Lalas Abubakar), and for in-the-box contact on Diego Rubio from Wayne Frederick in the second minute of second-half stoppage time – referee Marcos DeOliveira II pointed to the spot and then reversed it via the North Texas-headquarted Video Assistant Referee, which Moisés Chiullán has christened VARlington.

Though the stoppage-time review was lengthy and looked credible enough for me to quickly draft a second lead on my match recap (assuming a made PK), it was actually the first reversed call that vexed Estévez the most.

"The offside is very difficult, that they go back [on] that one, because there are no lines," he said. "There is no technology in in MLS ... the league doesn't have that technology, something that we as coaches want to have. The line between winning and losing is very thin, and for me, it's very difficult after not calling offside [during the play], to go and call offside [via VAR]. For me, if I was the referee, it is not clear and obvious to turn that call back on the PK."

He then ruefully added, "I would love to have a referee that brave when I play away."

In my role as Austin FC's pool reporter, I put a question to PRO, the MLS referee organization, about the rationale for the offside call.

PRO came back with: "After analyzing the video, it was determined that the forward was closer to the goal line than the second to last defender."

Well, PRO, thank you for explaining to me how offside works!

(On the other call, PRO assessed Frederick made contact with the ball rather than Rubio, and that Connor Ronan did not commit a handball infraction on the incoming ball to Rubio, which was another element of that play discussed in the press box during the lengthy video review.)

What the players said

Brad Stuver had some choice words about that particular review.

"We can never rely on the refs to make a game for us, but I would love to have five and a half minutes to go back, review something that I did on the field, and then change it. Must be nice to be able to have that."

But he then pivoted to, "At the end of the day, those decisions aren't what are going to win that game for us. We have to take charge of our own destiny, and from here on out, we just know that we can't rely on anybody else but ourselves."

Assessing the overall performance, he noted, "For those of us that have been here for several years now, we just have these lingering feelings from years past where these losses hit us a little bit harder.

"We do have to realize that there are a lot of positives happening on the field right now. We're not giving up a lot of chances. We're creating a lot of chances. I think for us, it's just putting ourselves in better positions, and making sure that our attacking players in spots where we can give them the ball and they can do what they do best, and put the ball in the back of the net for us. It's just about capitalizing more on the chances that we have. And I think once that domino starts to fall, you'll see that everything will start falling into place."

Uzuni, after making his first start and experiencing a frustrating night, nevertheless threw on a T-shirt over a towel and accountably came over to allow us to ask questions at the very end of our league-mandated time with players – the clock starts when Estévez's press conference starts, and that went nearly 25 of the 30 minutes we have total between coach and players.

"Everyone is sad about this," Uzuni said. "Losing at home is painful, of course, because we are living for that ... And I think today, we didn't have the luck with us, because in the moment you have 26 chances, creating ... the most important [thing is that you are creating [as] a team is not like you don't have chances."

He posited, "I think in the next games, we'll have the luck with us, because I think today we deserved it more."

He also acknowledged a developing chemistry between him, Brandon Vázquez, and Osman Bukari, even though the trio have combined for Verde's only goal in 270 minutes of the still-young season, and asserted that he's feeling good about that.

He assessed, "We are giving everything on the pitch," which was especially true in Uzuni's case – he finished with 20 touches, four shots (with one on target plus one hitting the post), two shot creating actions, 9 for 10 in passes, and amassed 0.4 xG on his own (per FBref), all adding up to a G+ rating of 72 per MLS Analytics (with 60 the mean, only bested by Vazquéz at 74, Owen Wolff at 73, and Oleksandr Svatok at 73, before dropping to Guilherme Biro and Osman Bukari at 61 and plenty of sub-60 performances below that).

With one Western Conference match still to be played on Sunday, Verde are currently 6th in the standings, three points off the conference-leading Quakes – with that last clause indicating we're still very early in the season and you should expect the picture to more clearly develop in the coming two months.

Judging from Stuver and Uzuni's comments, they're aware of the need to score goals and are a bit stung from the recent losses. Measured optimism appears the collective mood, despite worrying injuries and the failure thus far to score from open play. Estévez and the players clearly see the thin line dividing winning from losing, with the determination to get over that line.

But they now need to do that – and though they're off to a slightly better start than in 2024, when they registered two draws and a loss in their first three matches, the limbo they're in is concerning, and the collective preseason optimism of fans heading into opening day is facing some strong headwinds of reality.

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