Every time a Bell signs, a Rodo gets his wings: Analyzing the likely (but not yet official) Jon Bell signing
Though the Jon Bell-to-Austin signing is not yet official, there's enough smoke there for us to dig into some charts.
Austin FC may have its first signing of the offseason, and though it may on its face seem underwhelming compared to the high-profile moves of last winter, it could turn out to be a smart piece of business for sporting director Rodolfo Borrell.
According to Seattle-based soccer journalist Niko Moreno, center back Jon Bell has already officially signed with Verde after his contract with Seattle Sounders FC expired at the end of the season.
Initially a 2020 MLS SuperDraft pick by the San Jose Earthquakes, Bell found his way into the New England Revolution's system, playing with the MLS Next Pro Revs II in 2020 and the first team in 2021 and 2022, making 12 and 15 appearances respectively.
He then moved to St. Louis after being selected in the 2023 expansion draft, but only minimally contributed to the team's surprising debut season. Then, via the Re-Entry Draft, he landed with Seattle, and after a 2024 in which he made 10 appearances and scored a goal, he has his most utilized-in-MLS season yet, logging more than 1300 minutes over 21 league appearances.
Though he has domestic status and doesn't require a green card, he has played two matches with the Jamaica national team since 2023.
We consult an expert
Wanting to get the insight of someone who's seen him play quite a bit, we turned to Jeremiah Oshan of Sounder at Heart, who offered this analysis.
Jon Bell came to the Sounders in the Re-Entry Draft, seemingly as a flyer. He was, at the time, a full year removed from any serious playing time and didn't seem to have a ton of upside. But in two seasons with the Sounders, Bell proved himself to be a very capable defender who could probably start as a center back or a more defensive-minded left back for a lot of teams. Although he never got a long string of consecutive starts, he was always someone the coaching staff was more than happy to turn to late in games or whenever a defensive option was needed.
Bell was rarely beaten for pace or lost physical battles – a bit like Nouhou, who was probably better off the dribble but not as good of a passer. To the degree I was frustrated with Bell, it usually came when he was asked to be too much of a passing nexus. He wasn't a bad passer, just not someone who could reliably break lines.
If Austin is looking for him to be the third center back, I think that's a great spot for him.
When Oshan says third center back, he's likely meaning the first sub or rotational starter with a conventional back four, but his ability to play left back gets me thinking that in back five situations, he could theoretically be the leftmost center back in the line of three and shift wide whenever Guilherme Biro wants to push forward from his wingback spot (which, knowing him, is probably often).
And, of course, we consult some charts
Let's start with the last 365 days of Jon Bell, as FBref conveys it.
Though he might be frustrating as a passer per Oshan, he's actually pretty good as a passer per the spider chart (though, to Oshan's point, decent but not great at getting the ball substantially upfield).
Two numbers in the possession area stand out, though ... he doesn't get a lot of touches (judging from being 3rd percentile), but he's also 98th percentile in successful take-ons, which is impressive.
As for offensive and defensive numbers, not great but not wretched, except for shooting and scoring, which he doesn't do. (In the Sounders system, of course, there are plenty of people who do that. Theoretically, for Austin, there are also plenty of people who do that.)
Since Julio Cascante has exited, and Bell is ostensibly a Cascante replacement (at least for his 2025 role in the roster), let's look at the two of them together.
Cascante clearly scores more and gets way more touches on the ball, but there are some decent similarities — not enough to brand him Temu Cascante, given the much lower salary he's expected to be on – to understand what kind of player he'll be.
Now let's see how he complements the players he'd be most likely to pair with in the back line.
With Hines-Ike, expect him to make up where Bell lacks and vice-versa, to have a decent defensive showing and better than average passing (though probably a lot of back passing and lateral passing).
You're looking at a similar situation with Svatok, though between Svatok's interceptions and Bell's take-ons, you're also looking at a good number of attacks stifled before they develop into threats.
Based on something FBref fed me (in the "similar players to Jon Bell" list), there's one more center back I want to compare him to, and though he's with Portland, he is a one-time Austin center back.
This isn't a perfectly synched spider chart, but there are definite similarities here. And though getting a Kamal Miller play-alike for relatively little money isn't the same as grabbing Cristian Espinoza in offseason roster building ablomp, it's a solid move to incrementally improve a roster.
(By the way, Espinoza's not just a hypothetical I threw out — reports have Espinoza joining LAFC as a DP, meaning a potential Bouanga-Son-Espinoza that any combination of MLS center backs will have trouble with.)
About the money
What makes Bell especially attractive from a roster-building standpoint is his salary. Last year with Seattle, he made $135,000 and occupied a supplemental roster spot. As we learned from Matt Bersano's salary and roster spot when he was Brad Stuver's backup, it's possible to make over the threshold for a minimum senior roster spot and, thanks to labyrinthine MLS roster rules involving GAM salary buydowns, still be counted as a supplemental player.
That's important because Borrell has a limited number of senior roster spots to solve a number of offseason issues, including:
Outside of Owen Wolff and Osman Bukari, no real chance creation (as those two have 15 assists in 2025 compared to 21 for the rest of the squad);
A designated player striker recovering from a knee injury, another designated player striker recovering from season-long confidence issues, and the only backup on the roster being a 21-year-old with one career MLS goal;
A midfield that Borrell tried to bolster with a summer signing who committed in January, arrived in the U.S. from Europe, and then went back to Europe without playing a single minute; and
Two potential buyout candidates who combined for two goal contributions and more than $1.1 million in guaranteed compensation in 2025.
Given that series of concerns, getting a rotational starter-level center back on a supplemental deal looks like checking a box a little deeper down on the to-do list. It's a fine, smart move, and Bell looks to be an able contributor who may end up listing Austin as a two-year waystation in a journeyman career. But that, on its own, won't make for a successful, satisfying offseason.
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. For more coverage, check out Emergency Podcast! (an Austin FC Podcast) wherever you get your podcasts.
We know Austin FC's six opponents for the preseason now ... and you can see one of those live in Austin. Also, Dani Pereira will continue to be Verde through most of his twenties.
Austin FC may have its first signing of the offseason, and though it may on its face seem underwhelming compared to the high-profile moves of last winter, it could turn out to be a smart piece of business for sporting director Rodolfo Borrell.
According to Seattle-based soccer journalist Niko Moreno, center back Jon Bell has already officially signed with Verde after his contract with Seattle Sounders FC expired at the end of the season.
Initially a 2020 MLS SuperDraft pick by the San Jose Earthquakes, Bell found his way into the New England Revolution's system, playing with the MLS Next Pro Revs II in 2020 and the first team in 2021 and 2022, making 12 and 15 appearances respectively.
He then moved to St. Louis after being selected in the 2023 expansion draft, but only minimally contributed to the team's surprising debut season. Then, via the Re-Entry Draft, he landed with Seattle, and after a 2024 in which he made 10 appearances and scored a goal, he has his most utilized-in-MLS season yet, logging more than 1300 minutes over 21 league appearances.
Though he has domestic status and doesn't require a green card, he has played two matches with the Jamaica national team since 2023.
We consult an expert
Wanting to get the insight of someone who's seen him play quite a bit, we turned to Jeremiah Oshan of Sounder at Heart, who offered this analysis.
Jon Bell came to the Sounders in the Re-Entry Draft, seemingly as a flyer. He was, at the time, a full year removed from any serious playing time and didn't seem to have a ton of upside. But in two seasons with the Sounders, Bell proved himself to be a very capable defender who could probably start as a center back or a more defensive-minded left back for a lot of teams. Although he never got a long string of consecutive starts, he was always someone the coaching staff was more than happy to turn to late in games or whenever a defensive option was needed.
Bell was rarely beaten for pace or lost physical battles – a bit like Nouhou, who was probably better off the dribble but not as good of a passer. To the degree I was frustrated with Bell, it usually came when he was asked to be too much of a passing nexus. He wasn't a bad passer, just not someone who could reliably break lines.
If Austin is looking for him to be the third center back, I think that's a great spot for him.
When Oshan says third center back, he's likely meaning the first sub or rotational starter with a conventional back four, but his ability to play left back gets me thinking that in back five situations, he could theoretically be the leftmost center back in the line of three and shift wide whenever Guilherme Biro wants to push forward from his wingback spot (which, knowing him, is probably often).
And, of course, we consult some charts
Let's start with the last 365 days of Jon Bell, as FBref conveys it.
Though he might be frustrating as a passer per Oshan, he's actually pretty good as a passer per the spider chart (though, to Oshan's point, decent but not great at getting the ball substantially upfield).
Two numbers in the possession area stand out, though ... he doesn't get a lot of touches (judging from being 3rd percentile), but he's also 98th percentile in successful take-ons, which is impressive.
As for offensive and defensive numbers, not great but not wretched, except for shooting and scoring, which he doesn't do. (In the Sounders system, of course, there are plenty of people who do that. Theoretically, for Austin, there are also plenty of people who do that.)
Since Julio Cascante has exited, and Bell is ostensibly a Cascante replacement (at least for his 2025 role in the roster), let's look at the two of them together.
Cascante clearly scores more and gets way more touches on the ball, but there are some decent similarities — not enough to brand him Temu Cascante, given the much lower salary he's expected to be on – to understand what kind of player he'll be.
Now let's see how he complements the players he'd be most likely to pair with in the back line.
With Hines-Ike, expect him to make up where Bell lacks and vice-versa, to have a decent defensive showing and better than average passing (though probably a lot of back passing and lateral passing).
You're looking at a similar situation with Svatok, though between Svatok's interceptions and Bell's take-ons, you're also looking at a good number of attacks stifled before they develop into threats.
Based on something FBref fed me (in the "similar players to Jon Bell" list), there's one more center back I want to compare him to, and though he's with Portland, he is a one-time Austin center back.
This isn't a perfectly synched spider chart, but there are definite similarities here. And though getting a Kamal Miller play-alike for relatively little money isn't the same as grabbing Cristian Espinoza in offseason roster building ablomp, it's a solid move to incrementally improve a roster.
(By the way, Espinoza's not just a hypothetical I threw out — reports have Espinoza joining LAFC as a DP, meaning a potential Bouanga-Son-Espinoza that any combination of MLS center backs will have trouble with.)
About the money
What makes Bell especially attractive from a roster-building standpoint is his salary. Last year with Seattle, he made $135,000 and occupied a supplemental roster spot. As we learned from Matt Bersano's salary and roster spot when he was Brad Stuver's backup, it's possible to make over the threshold for a minimum senior roster spot and, thanks to labyrinthine MLS roster rules involving GAM salary buydowns, still be counted as a supplemental player.
That's important because Borrell has a limited number of senior roster spots to solve a number of offseason issues, including:
Given that series of concerns, getting a rotational starter-level center back on a supplemental deal looks like checking a box a little deeper down on the to-do list. It's a fine, smart move, and Bell looks to be an able contributor who may end up listing Austin as a two-year waystation in a journeyman career. But that, on its own, won't make for a successful, satisfying offseason.
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. For more coverage, check out Emergency Podcast! (an Austin FC Podcast) wherever you get your podcasts.
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