Much of Austin FC talk at this time of the year — until the schedule changes next year — is built around whether or not the team will make the playoffs. It's happened just twice in five years, and there's not a year in which a Decision Day has been consequential for Austin FC.
But in September, as more fairweather fans are wondering whether to drift over to Longhorn football, Verde's playoff chances figure into the equation — being at the part of the season where top MLS teams are on the cusp of clinching. Indeed, conference leaders Vancouver Whitecaps FC, who Austin FC play Sunday, already have 46 points amassed, good for making the playoffs most seasons.
As a brief reminder, here's what Verde's past seasons have looked like:
- 2021: 12th in the West (of 13), 31 points
- 2022: 2nd in the West (of 14), 56 points
- 2023: 12 in the West (of 14), 39 points
- 2024: 10th in the West (of 14), 42 points
- 2025: 6th in the West (of 15), 47 points
And to give you a sense of where Austin's been in relation to the playoff line dividing 9th and 10th place, here are the teams finishing in those two spots each of Austin's first five seasons in the league:
- 2021: LAFC in 9th (on 45 points), San Jose in 10th (on 41 points);
- 2022: Vancouver in 9th (on 43 points), Colorado in 10th (also on 43 points), with wins as the first tiebreaker, and the Whitecaps' 12 besting the Rapids' 11 even though the Rapids had the "better" goal differential, with -11 to the 'Caps' -17;
- 2023: San Jose in 9th (on 44 points), Portland in 10th (on 43 points);
- 2024: Portland in 9th (on 47 points), Austin in 10th (on 42 points); and
- 2025: RSL in 9th (on 41 points), San Jose on 10th (also on 41 points), and like 2022, the win tally between 9th and 10th was 12 to 11, even though RSL had a -11 goal differential to San Jose's -3 (on an amazing 60 goals scored and 63 goals scored against).
Though the line has been fluid across a 41 to 47 point spectrum in those five years, though the 47 could have been a 43 without relying on a tiebreaker in 2024 (and that's partially on Austin), 44 is the average.
To get to that number, due a pair of draws in its last two winnable home matches, Austin FC has to get 18 points in its last 10 matches.
But will 44 points be enough this season? Austin has to leapfrog five teams to get into 9th, and currently loses the wins tiebreaker with every team above it, though the Galaxy has just seven wins to Austin's six and has nine matches left to Austin's 10.
And leapfrogging certain teams is where High-Value Games come in.
As we alluded to in our earlier crystal ball gazing, matches against certain opponents matter more than others. Sure, beating Vancouver or Nashville would make for late-season statement wins, but choosing between getting six points from those top teams, or getting six points from LA Galaxy and RSL, it helps Verde much more to win the latter.
It's time to bring in Chase Hoffman, who previewed some work he's doing for an American Soccer Analysis article.
