Getting beyond 45 points: What Austin FC can and can't do
We did some math to try to project just how high Verde can get in the table. Fourth seems like a stretch, but it's still possible.
Although the math to qualify for the playoffs changes every year, 45 points is generally considered the "safe zone" for a team to make the MLS playoffs. With nine teams from each conference advancing, it's a relatively low bar, but one that Austin FC has cleared only once in its previous four years.
On Saturday night at Real Salt Lake, it's quite possible that the relatively hot Verde, going 7W 3L 3D in league matches since June, win and therefore not only qualify for the playoffs, but get past 45 points with the victory
At 44, they've already clinched their second-best season based on points, and still have a mathematical chance to tie their best ever, though it will take four straight wins to do so. And even if they draw Saturday, they get to 45 and could still clinch playoffs should the right teams drop points. (We're waiting for the league to weigh in on just what mix does that.)
But what about beyond Saturday? Is there a chance Verde can bump up into the top four, allowing them to host up to two first-round matches in the best of three series? And what playoff path awaits them?
Looking at the table
It's best to first look at the West and surmise the current state of the table.
The table as it stands Wednesday morning (MLSSoccer.com)
The first thing to notice is what Verde can't do: catch San Diego, which currently has one more point than Verde can obtain. Vancouver, with five matches left on 55 points, could theoretically have an epic collapse while Verde win four straight, but that's also extremely unlikely, and could be moot as early as tonight, when Vancouver hosts Portland with the chance to leapfrog San Diego and ensure they'll finish better than both Austin and Seattle. (A win Wednesday gives the Whitecaps the win total tiebreaker should both finish on Seattle's maximum possible 57 points.)
But let's also look at teams that can't catch Austin — while Real Salt Lake, currently in 12th place, still can, with a maximum of 47 points possible, 11th-place San Jose has to win out, including over Austin on Decision Day, to get to 44. The Quakes, before hosting Austin in the regular-season finale, has to travel to both San Diego and Vancouver prior to playing Austin. Remember when you worried about the stakes of that Decision Day finale and the chance that the matchup repeated as the No. 8 vs. No. 9 play-in game? It's very possible San Jose's now eliminated from playoff contention before Decision Day.
Projecting the maximums
Here are the maximum possible points of all the teams Verde could still mathematically catch, as well as the ones just below them:
No. 3 Minnesota, 54 points, three games remaining: 63
No. 4 LAFC, 50 points, five games remaining: 65
No. 5 Seattle, 45 points, four games remaining: 57
No. 6 Austin, 44 points, four games remaining: 56
No. 7 Portland, 42 points, four games remaining: 54
No. 8 Colorado, 39 points, three games remaining: 48
No. 9 Dallas, 37 points, four games remaining: 49
No. 10 Houston, 36 points, three games remaining: 45
Houston's on nine wins now, and Austin's on 12, so should Houston win their remaining three and Austin draw one and lose the rest, they'd be tied on 45 points and 12 wins, meaning that it would come down to goal differential, which Austin's got a five-goal advantage in right now, but in the scenario I've concocted, Houston could make that up and shut Austin out of the playoffs provided none of the other teams above Houston suffer a similar collapse.
(Rest assured, Austin winning just once or even drawing twice renders the above nightmare scenario moot.)
Two more things jump out at me about the top five in the conference vs. the current six through nine.
First, the top five all have positive goal differentials and the next four (and indeed, the other six teams in the conference) have negative goal differentials. The math pathway for passing Seattle (with "just" a +7 GD) looks far better than it does for passing the top four (currently ranging from +15 to +25), but that still leaves Austin in fifth.
But I could see Minnesota slide to fourth, setting up what I feel in my bones to be the inevitable 2025 first-round playoff matchup, with the winner getting Vancouver (who I believe is going to get in the top spot, and if it's chalk throughout the West bracket, I think eventual No. 2 LAFC gets to BC Place for the conference final, unless No. 6 Seattle, in this scenario, gets past No. 3 San Diego and shocks Son, Bouanga and Company on the road.)
(It's Seattle; they can do those sorts of things.)
Second, aside from Vancouver traveling to Seattle on Saturday, none of the top five teams will be able to take points off each other. The scheduling gods have made it so; the weirdest of the Decision Day mechanations has Seattle going to NYCFC — a team that could be looking to lock up first-round home-field advantage, possibly against Miami or Orlando.
Austin can, of course, take points off LAFC on Oct. 12, but the rest of the schedule is against teams currently below the playoff line — which helps in the quest to get to 56 points, but not in edging past most of the other teams in front of them. (That match against Austin is also LAFC's only remaining match against a current playoff-place team prior to Decision Day; they also face St. Louis, Atlanta, and Toronto, and then go to Colorado for Decision Day.
Obviously, root for wins
Of course, without wins, Austin FC won't have a chance to finish higher than sixth, and finishing top four seems a tall order, though without Sunday's last-gasp goal against Seattle, it would have been much less possible.
PlayoffStatus.com puts the bell curve firmly on sixth, with a 53% chance of staying where they are as opposed to a 22% chance of moving up to fifth and 21% chance of moving to seventh, just a 1% chance of finishing fourth, and not much else possible.
There is still a less than 1% chance Austin FC doesn't make the playoffs, but there's one easy remedy for that on Saturday.
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. You can comment here if you’re a subscriber, or reach out via Bluesky.
With three dramatic 2-1 wins in their most recent four matches, the September version of Austin FC is more fun than the version that dropped points earlier in the season.
For the second straight match, Austin FC found a way to win at the very last moment. The win propels them into 6th place with just four regular-season games left.
CJ Fodrey was the hero on Wednesday night, in part because of Nico Estévez's belief in him. Also, we saw Estévez as perhaps the happiest he's been since coming to Austin.
Although the math to qualify for the playoffs changes every year, 45 points is generally considered the "safe zone" for a team to make the MLS playoffs. With nine teams from each conference advancing, it's a relatively low bar, but one that Austin FC has cleared only once in its previous four years.
On Saturday night at Real Salt Lake, it's quite possible that the relatively hot Verde, going 7W 3L 3D in league matches since June, win and therefore not only qualify for the playoffs, but get past 45 points with the victory
At 44, they've already clinched their second-best season based on points, and still have a mathematical chance to tie their best ever, though it will take four straight wins to do so. And even if they draw Saturday, they get to 45 and could still clinch playoffs should the right teams drop points. (We're waiting for the league to weigh in on just what mix does that.)
But what about beyond Saturday? Is there a chance Verde can bump up into the top four, allowing them to host up to two first-round matches in the best of three series? And what playoff path awaits them?
Looking at the table
It's best to first look at the West and surmise the current state of the table.
The first thing to notice is what Verde can't do: catch San Diego, which currently has one more point than Verde can obtain. Vancouver, with five matches left on 55 points, could theoretically have an epic collapse while Verde win four straight, but that's also extremely unlikely, and could be moot as early as tonight, when Vancouver hosts Portland with the chance to leapfrog San Diego and ensure they'll finish better than both Austin and Seattle. (A win Wednesday gives the Whitecaps the win total tiebreaker should both finish on Seattle's maximum possible 57 points.)
But let's also look at teams that can't catch Austin — while Real Salt Lake, currently in 12th place, still can, with a maximum of 47 points possible, 11th-place San Jose has to win out, including over Austin on Decision Day, to get to 44. The Quakes, before hosting Austin in the regular-season finale, has to travel to both San Diego and Vancouver prior to playing Austin. Remember when you worried about the stakes of that Decision Day finale and the chance that the matchup repeated as the No. 8 vs. No. 9 play-in game? It's very possible San Jose's now eliminated from playoff contention before Decision Day.
Projecting the maximums
Here are the maximum possible points of all the teams Verde could still mathematically catch, as well as the ones just below them:
Houston's on nine wins now, and Austin's on 12, so should Houston win their remaining three and Austin draw one and lose the rest, they'd be tied on 45 points and 12 wins, meaning that it would come down to goal differential, which Austin's got a five-goal advantage in right now, but in the scenario I've concocted, Houston could make that up and shut Austin out of the playoffs provided none of the other teams above Houston suffer a similar collapse.
(Rest assured, Austin winning just once or even drawing twice renders the above nightmare scenario moot.)
Two more things jump out at me about the top five in the conference vs. the current six through nine.
First, the top five all have positive goal differentials and the next four (and indeed, the other six teams in the conference) have negative goal differentials. The math pathway for passing Seattle (with "just" a +7 GD) looks far better than it does for passing the top four (currently ranging from +15 to +25), but that still leaves Austin in fifth.
But I could see Minnesota slide to fourth, setting up what I feel in my bones to be the inevitable 2025 first-round playoff matchup, with the winner getting Vancouver (who I believe is going to get in the top spot, and if it's chalk throughout the West bracket, I think eventual No. 2 LAFC gets to BC Place for the conference final, unless No. 6 Seattle, in this scenario, gets past No. 3 San Diego and shocks Son, Bouanga and Company on the road.)
(It's Seattle; they can do those sorts of things.)
Second, aside from Vancouver traveling to Seattle on Saturday, none of the top five teams will be able to take points off each other. The scheduling gods have made it so; the weirdest of the Decision Day mechanations has Seattle going to NYCFC — a team that could be looking to lock up first-round home-field advantage, possibly against Miami or Orlando.
Austin can, of course, take points off LAFC on Oct. 12, but the rest of the schedule is against teams currently below the playoff line — which helps in the quest to get to 56 points, but not in edging past most of the other teams in front of them. (That match against Austin is also LAFC's only remaining match against a current playoff-place team prior to Decision Day; they also face St. Louis, Atlanta, and Toronto, and then go to Colorado for Decision Day.
Obviously, root for wins
Of course, without wins, Austin FC won't have a chance to finish higher than sixth, and finishing top four seems a tall order, though without Sunday's last-gasp goal against Seattle, it would have been much less possible.
PlayoffStatus.com puts the bell curve firmly on sixth, with a 53% chance of staying where they are as opposed to a 22% chance of moving up to fifth and 21% chance of moving to seventh, just a 1% chance of finishing fourth, and not much else possible.
There is still a less than 1% chance Austin FC doesn't make the playoffs, but there's one easy remedy for that on Saturday.
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. You can comment here if you’re a subscriber, or reach out via Bluesky.
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