Finishing the job: How Austin FC can (finally) qualify for the playoffs and what to watch for Saturday
You've heard this before, but Austin FC can qualify for the playoffs this weekend — even if they lose. And there's a record we fully expect Brad Stuver to break on Saturday night regardless of results.
With the U.S. Open Cup unsatisfactorily resolved on Wednesday night, Austin FC head coach Nico Estévez and multiple players turned their attention to the remaining three matches of the regular season and the playoffs they have yet to qualify for.
That can change in a few different ways on Saturday night, though, as Verde host St. Louis City SC in the penultimate home match of the 2025 campaign.
The easiest way for Austin to qualify is to win or to draw. Since this is arguably the easiest of the three matches left — St. Louis, after all, is the only of the three remaining opponents already eliminated from the playoffs — it's also the best opportunity to pick up three points to secure a more favorable position. (As we've talked about before, it's most likely Austin FC's going to finish between fifth and seventh.)
There are also ways Verde can get in if they lose on Saturday:
Colorado lose at Salt Lake AND San Jose lose or draw at Vancouver, or
Salt Lake lose vs. Colorado AND San Jose lose or draw at Vancouver, or
Colorado lose at Salt Lake AND Dallas lose vs. LA Galaxy, or
Salt Lake lose vs. Colorado AND Dallas lose vs. LA Galaxy, or
Dallas lose vs. LA Galaxy AND San Jose lose or draw at Vancouver.
As with last week's scenario, there are all (especially within MLS) plausible results. It would be nice to just have Verde do this on their own, but know that in the face of more disappointment, there still could be something to celebrate.
Bad, bad boys
Yellow card accumulation has snagged Guilherme Biro, who will not be available for selection Saturday, making it quite likely that Žan Kolmanič, held out of Wednesday's final, will start opposite Mikkel Desler at fullback. Desler, who started the final but didn't go the full 90, is one yellow card away from being suspended a week from Sunday against LAFC.
Besard Šabović, Oleksandr Svatok, and Nicolás Dubersarsky made the 18-man roster for the Open Cup final but didn't get subbed in, so they're available to start should any of Wednesday's starters need to be held out.
Something to cheer for
Brad Stuver was, of course, in no mood to talk about the record he's on the cusp of breaking, for most saves over five MLS regular seasons. He's at 619 now; record-holder Tony Meola has 620. Stuver said:
I haven't even thought about it. I mean, it would be cool, but for me, that's something that doesn't really get remembered until another goalkeeper gets close to beating it. I don't think any of us knew that that was an actual record until I kind of became close. So, for me, the things that are remembered are team trophies and team wins. So my focus is bringing a trophy with this team; it's less about the individual accolades.
Still, Austin fans, you know what to do on those first two saves. (Though I'm know wondering, will it be outright cheering, or a more boisterous variety of the "Stuuuuuu" that typically accompanies a Stuver save.)
So, you're telling me there's a chance
While I haven't been able to officially confirm this yet, if this year's competition guidelines are similar to last year's, there's a slim chance that Austin FC could still qualify for the 2026 Concacaf Champions Cup — but it will likely involve rooting for Nashville SC to do so.
You're likely aware that the Open Cup winner gets a berth in the confederation tournament, but per last year's rules, if the winner qualifies another way (like winning MLS Cup or finishing among the best in the Supporters' Shield standings), the Open Cup runner-up is elevated.
Right now, Nashville could get to 59 points by winning their remaining two matches against Montréal and Miami — with that Decision Day win taking points off a team above them in those standings.
It is mathematically possible for Nashville to finish top four with that total — right now, only two MLS teams have at least 59 points. The issue is that a lot of good teams — including a Whitecaps squad that qualified on Wednesday by winning the Canadian Championship for a fourth straight year — can also get to 59 or well above it with the form they're currently on.
But, if I'm reading this right — again, a caveat necessary with Concacaf — Vancouver qualifying independent of Supporters' Shield standings actually means Nashville could finish fifth or sixth and get in, depending on if one of the teams above Nashville win MLS Cup, since the qualifying via Supporters' Shield language is "next best team" and not "third or fourth," which I think opens the door to teams in the standings below whoever qualifies in other ways. (Save for the Open Cup winner, again, if I'm reading the rules right.)
Of course, Austin could just win MLS Cup and get in that way. But they have to qualify for the playoffs first, as close as they are to doing so.
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. You can comment here if you’re a subscriber, or reach out via Bluesky.
Saturday's loss to St. Louis City SC completed the team's first three-match losing streak since May. Verde can still make the playoffs today, but may not avoid the play-in game.
While Dani Pereira and Jon Gallagher expressed disgruntlement over the call the game turned on, team leaders wanted to focus on using this pain as further motivation for the challenges to come.
With the U.S. Open Cup unsatisfactorily resolved on Wednesday night, Austin FC head coach Nico Estévez and multiple players turned their attention to the remaining three matches of the regular season and the playoffs they have yet to qualify for.
That can change in a few different ways on Saturday night, though, as Verde host St. Louis City SC in the penultimate home match of the 2025 campaign.
The easiest way for Austin to qualify is to win or to draw. Since this is arguably the easiest of the three matches left — St. Louis, after all, is the only of the three remaining opponents already eliminated from the playoffs — it's also the best opportunity to pick up three points to secure a more favorable position. (As we've talked about before, it's most likely Austin FC's going to finish between fifth and seventh.)
There are also ways Verde can get in if they lose on Saturday:
As with last week's scenario, there are all (especially within MLS) plausible results. It would be nice to just have Verde do this on their own, but know that in the face of more disappointment, there still could be something to celebrate.
Bad, bad boys
Yellow card accumulation has snagged Guilherme Biro, who will not be available for selection Saturday, making it quite likely that Žan Kolmanič, held out of Wednesday's final, will start opposite Mikkel Desler at fullback. Desler, who started the final but didn't go the full 90, is one yellow card away from being suspended a week from Sunday against LAFC.
Besard Šabović, Oleksandr Svatok, and Nicolás Dubersarsky made the 18-man roster for the Open Cup final but didn't get subbed in, so they're available to start should any of Wednesday's starters need to be held out.
Something to cheer for
Brad Stuver was, of course, in no mood to talk about the record he's on the cusp of breaking, for most saves over five MLS regular seasons. He's at 619 now; record-holder Tony Meola has 620. Stuver said:
I haven't even thought about it. I mean, it would be cool, but for me, that's something that doesn't really get remembered until another goalkeeper gets close to beating it. I don't think any of us knew that that was an actual record until I kind of became close. So, for me, the things that are remembered are team trophies and team wins. So my focus is bringing a trophy with this team; it's less about the individual accolades.
Still, Austin fans, you know what to do on those first two saves. (Though I'm know wondering, will it be outright cheering, or a more boisterous variety of the "Stuuuuuu" that typically accompanies a Stuver save.)
So, you're telling me there's a chance
While I haven't been able to officially confirm this yet, if this year's competition guidelines are similar to last year's, there's a slim chance that Austin FC could still qualify for the 2026 Concacaf Champions Cup — but it will likely involve rooting for Nashville SC to do so.
You're likely aware that the Open Cup winner gets a berth in the confederation tournament, but per last year's rules, if the winner qualifies another way (like winning MLS Cup or finishing among the best in the Supporters' Shield standings), the Open Cup runner-up is elevated.
Right now, Nashville could get to 59 points by winning their remaining two matches against Montréal and Miami — with that Decision Day win taking points off a team above them in those standings.
It is mathematically possible for Nashville to finish top four with that total — right now, only two MLS teams have at least 59 points. The issue is that a lot of good teams — including a Whitecaps squad that qualified on Wednesday by winning the Canadian Championship for a fourth straight year — can also get to 59 or well above it with the form they're currently on.
But, if I'm reading this right — again, a caveat necessary with Concacaf — Vancouver qualifying independent of Supporters' Shield standings actually means Nashville could finish fifth or sixth and get in, depending on if one of the teams above Nashville win MLS Cup, since the qualifying via Supporters' Shield language is "next best team" and not "third or fourth," which I think opens the door to teams in the standings below whoever qualifies in other ways. (Save for the Open Cup winner, again, if I'm reading the rules right.)
Of course, Austin could just win MLS Cup and get in that way. But they have to qualify for the playoffs first, as close as they are to doing so.
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. You can comment here if you’re a subscriber, or reach out via Bluesky.
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