During the press conference with Austin FC head coach Josh Wolff on Saturday night, following its comeback 2-2 draw against Real Salt Lake, something Verde needed in order to keep its slim playoff hopes alive was happening. Vancouver was beating Portland 1-0, and had that result held, Austin would be eight points behind Portland with nine left to win, starting with three in the Rose City on Wednesday.
Right as Wolff was stepping away from the mike, Portland scored an equalizer, and despite a wild final 15 minutes in which both teams had chances to win, the 1-1 draw held.
Before we get into Wolff’s comments — and I’ve included quite a few — here’s what the playoff pathway looks like.
The first part of it is relatively straightforward: To tie Portland on points, Verde needs to win against the Timbers on Wednesday, then beat the Galaxy on Saturday in Carson — and the team will stay on the West Coast for the two-match road trip, we learned — before beating the Rapids on Decision Day. Meanwhile, the Timbers would have to drop their remaining games, including its Sunday match hosting Dallas (who is still a point ahead of Austin in the standings) and on Decision Day at Seattle. That’s not an outlandish scenario.
Where it gets complicated is in the tiebreakers when two teams are tied on points. MLS goes to wins first, then goal differential, then goals scored during the season. In the above scenario, both teams would have 12 wins. Portland currently has a goal differential of 10, and Austin’s is -10, meaning Verde would need to overcome a goal differential of 20. Because the teams play each other next, a 5-0 Austin win on Wednesday would bring it halfway to closing the gap, but Austin would still need to make up another 11 goals in two matches.
And if they do somehow pull even on goal differential — could Manchester City loan Erling Haaland to Austin for a few weeks? — Portland has scored 64 goals this year, most in the West. Verde has scored 34, the fewest in the West. To get 31 goals and surpass the Timbers in that category (assuming the Timbers are shut out in their remaining three games), Verde would need to score a goal every 8 minutes and 42 seconds the rest of the way. It took Verde the first 2,565 minutes of the season to get to 31 goals, and the team’s scored just three in their last 235.
There’s not yet an “e” next to Austin’s name in the standings, and depending on how things go, that might not officially happen until Decision Day. Then again, a draw or a loss against Portland on Wednesday would knock them out, and if Austin does vanquish Portland on Wednesday, anything short of a Portland loss or Austin win on Saturday does it.
