Austin FC's four remaining opponents before the (still just theoretical) playoffs
Austin FC has four matches left before the playoffs. It's a playoffs the team hasn't technically qualified for yet.
Austin FC has a first-ever U.S. Open Cup final on Wednesday and has yet to mathematically clinch its place in the playoffs. It's time to update and annotate an article from back when they had at least eight (and what happily became nine) opponents left.
What a difference a month makes! The journey to the match for a trophy has been complete with peaks and valleys for Austin and the obstacle between them and their first-ever hardware, plus the three teams that could complicate punching their second-ever playoff ticket.
Nashville SC
(home, Oct. 1)
What I wrote on August 31st:
St. Louis beat them 3-1 at the beginning of August, and then NYCFC beat them 2-1 ... before they beat Orlando 5-1. Atlanta kept a clean sheet against them last night in Nashville though, so it's been a pretty up-and-down (mostly down) August. Their path to the Live Music Capitol begins away at Cincy, then the theoretical win against Philly, an away match against the Lions in Orlando, and then back home against an annoying and unpredictable Dynamo before the final in Austin.
Since then ... they lost a hard-fought away match against FC Cincinnati, 2-1, that was very nearly a draw until the eighth minute of second-half stoppage time. The theoretical win against Supporters Shield leaders Philadelphia became an actual 3-1 win at home thanks to a beautiful hat trick by Sam Surridge.
Playing Orlando in Orlando is always a tricky bit of business, and sure enough, it was an uphill climb thanks to an early brace by Martín Ojeda, made easier by Hany Mukhtar notching one in the dregs of first-half stoppage time. Nashville leveled it just a few minutes into the second half thanks to Jacob Shaffelburg, who came on at halftime for Patrick Yazbek. It stayed level and very contentious and hard-fought until Duncan McGuire broke Nashville's hearts in the last bits of extra time.
Now, for the crucial events that The Other Music City experienced while most or all of you reading this were watching a heavily rotated Austin lose to Real Salt Lake on Saturday night. If you're looking for something to distract you or take the edge off of anxiety heading into Austin's first-ever cup final based on having watched Austin get shellacked by a team that is almost certain to miss the playoffs, you may actually want to watch the whole replay of Nashville vs. Houston for yourself.
To secure their spot in a highly contentious Eastern Conference playoff pool, Nashville brought out 90% of a Best XI against an almost mathematically eliminated Houston. Hany Mukhtar scored in the second minute. Houston's Sviatchenko was sent off with a DOGSO red in the ninth minute. Lip-readers saw Dynamo head coach Ben Olsen shout "Then what are you here for?!" at the fourth official regarding his appeal of the most obvious of obvious-est DOGSO reds on the broadcast. Sviatchenko cleaned out Mukhtar so well that it knocked his right boot off.
You would think that this is the setup for sailing to victory and subbing off prime starters early.
You'd think.
Nashville spent the next 30 minutes not scoring their go-ahead goal, and not for lack of effort. Fair credit to the Dynamo; they played down a man as if they were up a man on Nashville. That's not nothing for a squad's top guys to have to do four days before playing a final.
Nashville scored a brace on the other side of halftime, with only two minutes separating the two goals, making it 3-1 for the home side. They made their first pair of subs seven minutes later, but it wasn't for Mukhtar and Surridge, who stayed on and kept pressing the attack for another 20 minutes. Ten minutes after that, Shaffelburg came off in the 87th for Walker Zimmerman to come on and have an inconsequential eight or so minutes at the end.
Austin rotated heavily on Saturday night, with Nico Estevez referring to it as a "practice session" in advance of what was implied to be the real match on Wednesday. Nashville did the above and now must turn around on four days' rest.
St. Louis City SC
(home, Oct. 4)
So if Verde wins a U.S. Open Cup Final, they get two days' rest before playing St. Louis on the same pitch at Q2. In theory, that final could result in this getting pushed back to the next Wednesday, during the same international break as the 10/12 home match against LAFC. So many things regarding table placement will be radically different by the time October gets here, but let's go back to the fact St. Louis would max out at 39 points if they win every single one of their last eight games.
Austin will be catching them after they are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs unless St. Louis goes on an incredible tear. Here's evidence from Saturday night's game that they're not going on an incredible tear.
St. Louis are now mathematically eliminated, as foretold. They drew at home against Dallas, and even though they beat Montreéal and San Jose in back-to-back away jaunts, LAFC trounced them Saturday night in St. Louis. The Dog Food Dudes picked up five yellow cards (including two in second-half stoppage times) and the match absolutely got into their heads.
Of course, that means they'll have zero "effs" to give in their penultimate 2025 season game, which makes them very dangerous.
But also, they're going to be pretty worn out by this point, too. Their September will have been a home game sandwich, starting the month against Dallas and ending it against a very tired, adrenaline-jacked LAFC, with away games against Montréal (The Whose Season Sucked Worse Cup) and San Jose in between. Their 2025 was rough. They will more than likely rotate in Austin so that they can show up big at home for their fans on Decision Day against RSL.
If the incredibly mathematically unlikely situation of the table being in utter chaos leading into Decision Day happens, that goes out the window. It won't.
One of the most dangerous opponents in MLS is a side with seemingly nothing left to lose, but even without Guilherme Biro (who will be on yellow card accumulation suspension on Saturday), Verde should be more than capable of handling St. Louis even on minimal rest after a final. They may not rotate or rotate much, but the St. Louis that played Saturday night is more disconnected than Austin on its worst days.
LAFC
(home, Oct. 12)
Son Heung-min has arrived, and he's awesome. He will still be playing for LAFC and awesome six weeks from now. The problem facing LAFC is they have played less games than everyone else in the West and have an absolutely brutal final quarter of the season.
Son and Bouanga have been on an absolute heater of all heaters. Austin ought to be terrified of playing LAFC now versus Before Son, right?
They do get six days' rest before heading away against St. Louis, but three matches in seven days is a hell of a way to begin the last push of the season. They get seven days' rest on the other side of St. Louis away, but here's where it gets really stupid. They play Atlanta at home on Oct. 5, rest two days, and then play Toronto at home, and then have three days before going away to play Austin, making up the rescheduled July 4th weekend game.
Yeah, but ... Son and Bouanga are racking up goals like it isn't hard despite the heavy load.
That's another three-in-seven stretch, but this time during an international break.
You ought to expect the biggest stars of LAFC2 to show up at Q2 on Oct. 12 because that may be all the people they have available and healthy.
Maybe that was a bit of an overstatement, but ... don't expect The Sonny and Denis Show at Q2 on October 12th for yet another edition of Sunday Night Soccer. LAFC is 100% in the playoffs and are certainly not expected to be hard-pressed for points relative their table position by then. Why on earth would they be in desperate need of an away win right after back-to-back home matches against Atlanta and Toronto? Even a bruised and Cup-weary Austin with their own international duty absences should be able to handle a similarly rotated LAFC ... right?
San Jose Earthquakes
(away, Oct. 18)
The Quakes have home-field advantage, but they have not exactly had the most fun path there. The Quakes have to be at the tip of LAFC's spear as the Black and Gold head into their Final Quarter of Hell. They get a breather in theory hosting St. Louis, sure, but guess what they get for their trouble in return? Away against both San Diego and a fully Müllerized Vancouver.
This pretty much played out as expected against LAFC, who beat them in their own house 2-4. St. Louis was not in fact a "breather!" Fully-written-off St. Louis beat the Quakes in San Jose on the second leg of what ended up being their two-match "revenge tour" of sorts. That must have been a shock to the system, especially just in advance of Saturday night...
The San Diego match? It's the Shiny and Chrome's final regular-season home match for 2025. San Jose's reward for surviving whatever that nuclear blast is like...
Nuclear winter was averted by a 14th-minute Josef Martinez goal and a very hard-fought win against one of the few remaining true Supporters Shield favorites. I started Saturday night repeating what I said on the most recent Emergency Podcast, which is that I thought Bruce Arena's days as the MLS Whisperer were over.
How do I explain myself? From the end of the article I'm annotating and updating here...
In a word: MLS.
... but back to San Jose for a moment
... [San Jose] is getting buried under the avalanche of a similarly triumphant Vancouver season with their brilliant new mega-star.
Vancouver spent Saturday night in a very hard-fought draw against Seattle that put Vancouver even on points with San Diego, and the Whitecaps have a Cup Final of their own to play this Wednesday against Vancouver FC (for the Canadian Championship). They want to stay top of the West, but how do they balance choices when they still have Orlando away on the other side of this and Thomas Müller recently picking up an injury?
And then after all that, [San Jose] get an Austin team that knocked them out of the Open Cup and then beat them by two goals in a match that would have made their playoff path easier should they have won or at least drawn it.
The Quakes have also definitely not forgotten about the literal blood that was spilled in their stadium in the match that knocked them out of the Open Cup that Austin may well have in their trophy case by Decision Day. Results depending, what if Austin is still in need of points to make the playoffs or even to stay out of the play-in? That scenario could still happen.
In other words: The Open Cup ... at what cost? Fans already have passionately held opinions. For me, winning it is enough to consider it a season of achievement, but I have a feeling that is not enough for Austin's players and sporting operation as a whole.
As tense as Austin-San Jose matches always are, the road traveled is making this Decision Day look like one that will echo in both clubs' histories.
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. You can comment here if you’re a subscriber, or reach out via Bluesky.
Austin FC let in a goal shortly before halftime, and then it got worse. Also, this team plays in a final in four days; they could do with some Taylor Swift advice.
Austin FC has a first-ever U.S. Open Cup final on Wednesday and has yet to mathematically clinch its place in the playoffs. It's time to update and annotate an article from back when they had at least eight (and what happily became nine) opponents left.
What a difference a month makes! The journey to the match for a trophy has been complete with peaks and valleys for Austin and the obstacle between them and their first-ever hardware, plus the three teams that could complicate punching their second-ever playoff ticket.
Nashville SC
(home, Oct. 1)
What I wrote on August 31st:
Since then ... they lost a hard-fought away match against FC Cincinnati, 2-1, that was very nearly a draw until the eighth minute of second-half stoppage time. The theoretical win against Supporters Shield leaders Philadelphia became an actual 3-1 win at home thanks to a beautiful hat trick by Sam Surridge.
Playing Orlando in Orlando is always a tricky bit of business, and sure enough, it was an uphill climb thanks to an early brace by Martín Ojeda, made easier by Hany Mukhtar notching one in the dregs of first-half stoppage time. Nashville leveled it just a few minutes into the second half thanks to Jacob Shaffelburg, who came on at halftime for Patrick Yazbek. It stayed level and very contentious and hard-fought until Duncan McGuire broke Nashville's hearts in the last bits of extra time.
Now, for the crucial events that The Other Music City experienced while most or all of you reading this were watching a heavily rotated Austin lose to Real Salt Lake on Saturday night. If you're looking for something to distract you or take the edge off of anxiety heading into Austin's first-ever cup final based on having watched Austin get shellacked by a team that is almost certain to miss the playoffs, you may actually want to watch the whole replay of Nashville vs. Houston for yourself.
To secure their spot in a highly contentious Eastern Conference playoff pool, Nashville brought out 90% of a Best XI against an almost mathematically eliminated Houston. Hany Mukhtar scored in the second minute. Houston's Sviatchenko was sent off with a DOGSO red in the ninth minute. Lip-readers saw Dynamo head coach Ben Olsen shout "Then what are you here for?!" at the fourth official regarding his appeal of the most obvious of obvious-est DOGSO reds on the broadcast. Sviatchenko cleaned out Mukhtar so well that it knocked his right boot off.
You would think that this is the setup for sailing to victory and subbing off prime starters early.
You'd think.
Nashville spent the next 30 minutes not scoring their go-ahead goal, and not for lack of effort. Fair credit to the Dynamo; they played down a man as if they were up a man on Nashville. That's not nothing for a squad's top guys to have to do four days before playing a final.
Nashville scored a brace on the other side of halftime, with only two minutes separating the two goals, making it 3-1 for the home side. They made their first pair of subs seven minutes later, but it wasn't for Mukhtar and Surridge, who stayed on and kept pressing the attack for another 20 minutes. Ten minutes after that, Shaffelburg came off in the 87th for Walker Zimmerman to come on and have an inconsequential eight or so minutes at the end.
Austin rotated heavily on Saturday night, with Nico Estevez referring to it as a "practice session" in advance of what was implied to be the real match on Wednesday. Nashville did the above and now must turn around on four days' rest.
St. Louis City SC
(home, Oct. 4)
St. Louis are now mathematically eliminated, as foretold. They drew at home against Dallas, and even though they beat Montreéal and San Jose in back-to-back away jaunts, LAFC trounced them Saturday night in St. Louis. The Dog Food Dudes picked up five yellow cards (including two in second-half stoppage times) and the match absolutely got into their heads.
If the incredibly mathematically unlikely situation of the table being in utter chaos leading into Decision Day happens, that goes out the window. It won't.
One of the most dangerous opponents in MLS is a side with seemingly nothing left to lose, but even without Guilherme Biro (who will be on yellow card accumulation suspension on Saturday), Verde should be more than capable of handling St. Louis even on minimal rest after a final. They may not rotate or rotate much, but the St. Louis that played Saturday night is more disconnected than Austin on its worst days.
LAFC
(home, Oct. 12)
Son and Bouanga have been on an absolute heater of all heaters. Austin ought to be terrified of playing LAFC now versus Before Son, right?
Yeah, but ... Son and Bouanga are racking up goals like it isn't hard despite the heavy load.
Maybe that was a bit of an overstatement, but ... don't expect The Sonny and Denis Show at Q2 on October 12th for yet another edition of Sunday Night Soccer. LAFC is 100% in the playoffs and are certainly not expected to be hard-pressed for points relative their table position by then. Why on earth would they be in desperate need of an away win right after back-to-back home matches against Atlanta and Toronto? Even a bruised and Cup-weary Austin with their own international duty absences should be able to handle a similarly rotated LAFC ... right?
San Jose Earthquakes
(away, Oct. 18)
This pretty much played out as expected against LAFC, who beat them in their own house 2-4. St. Louis was not in fact a "breather!" Fully-written-off St. Louis beat the Quakes in San Jose on the second leg of what ended up being their two-match "revenge tour" of sorts. That must have been a shock to the system, especially just in advance of Saturday night...
Nuclear winter was averted by a 14th-minute Josef Martinez goal and a very hard-fought win against one of the few remaining true Supporters Shield favorites. I started Saturday night repeating what I said on the most recent Emergency Podcast, which is that I thought Bruce Arena's days as the MLS Whisperer were over.
How do I explain myself? From the end of the article I'm annotating and updating here...
... but back to San Jose for a moment
Vancouver spent Saturday night in a very hard-fought draw against Seattle that put Vancouver even on points with San Diego, and the Whitecaps have a Cup Final of their own to play this Wednesday against Vancouver FC (for the Canadian Championship). They want to stay top of the West, but how do they balance choices when they still have Orlando away on the other side of this and Thomas Müller recently picking up an injury?
The Quakes have also definitely not forgotten about the literal blood that was spilled in their stadium in the match that knocked them out of the Open Cup that Austin may well have in their trophy case by Decision Day. Results depending, what if Austin is still in need of points to make the playoffs or even to stay out of the play-in? That scenario could still happen.
In other words: The Open Cup ... at what cost? Fans already have passionately held opinions. For me, winning it is enough to consider it a season of achievement, but I have a feeling that is not enough for Austin's players and sporting operation as a whole.
As tense as Austin-San Jose matches always are, the road traveled is making this Decision Day look like one that will echo in both clubs' histories.
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. You can comment here if you’re a subscriber, or reach out via Bluesky.
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