You'll know by around 10 pm Saturday night who Austin will face in the 2025 MLS Playoffs. You'll be better prepared to watch Saturday's matches after reading this guide.
Eighty-one different scenarios could play out on Decision Day 2025, determining who Verde faces in the first round of the 2025 MLS playoffs — considering that the top four teams in the West all play different opponents and can either win, lose, or draw to shuffle the first-round matchups.
(Seventh, eighth, and ninth places are also subject to what five teams do with their 243 possibilities, but as Austin FC fans, you're ultimately concerned about who lands in third to face a Verde team locked into the No. 6 seed.)
Vancouver can drop no lower than 2nd, so which of LAFC, San Diego, and Minnesota will end up No. 3 when all is said and done?
All of the following calculations and analysis were done without the use of AI. Verde All Day: Made By Humans. (And, thanks to Chase Hoffman, Python, a computer language better at counting than ChatGPT.)
Why even bring up generative AI, aside from the annoying news that MLS has started testing AI-generated match recaps? Ever since last weekend's results went final, folks have been feeding ChatGPT and other AI models and AI-powered search engines data and asking them to spit out probabilities and scenarios.
Guess what? A quick test we did revealed that ChatGPT thinks the impossible is possible. Among them: Reporting there are three ways that Vancouver could end up in third place. In actual reality, they can drop no lower than second.
The top four teams' results can play out exactly 81 different ways. Of the 81 different win/loss scenarios that can play out for the top four teams, here are how many result in each of the three possible opponents, but I beg you not to look at those percentages as "probability."
LAFC: 45 (55%)
San Diego: 21 (26%)
Minnesota: 15 (18%)
Those listed percentages are just how many of the possible outcomes result in those opponents, not how likely they are to happen. PlayoffStatus.com has broken out the probabilities as LAFC 44%, San Diego 30%, and Minnesota United 27%. They don't provide any context to what their model takes into account, but considering the "what it takes" of the 81 scenarios, those numbers feel much more representative than just assuming that the proportion of scenarios lines up to what will actually happen.
There's way too much math, so let's look at some reasonable assumptions based on what teams are playing whom, and then rattle off what helps or most needs to happen for them to end up 3rd. Phil will weigh in with "Phil's Take," and we'll rattle off some other interesting things to watch on Decision Day while waiting for the West to kick off at 8 pm.
If you want to look at all the math, as well as which scenarios you might be rooting for, we've got you covered.
This is the one with the most paths, and it's the one that most people anecdotally seem to assume is happening. Let's look at the data after choosing some givens.
LAFC plays at Colorado on Saturday, with a full-strength squad that includes Son Heung-min and Denis Bouanga. Vancouver plays a Dallas team missing the trio of Petar Musa, Logan Farrington, and Ramiro due to yellow and red card suspensions. Depleted, low-on-attack Minnesota plays safe-from-the-Spoon LA Galaxy in Carson. San Diego goes to Portland, who need results to stay out of the play-in game (though it's also quite possible this is a playoff preview to an SDFC-Timbers series).
Here's a surprise before we get off to the races: Minnesota winning at Galaxy could be the biggest spoiler for LAFC ending up 3rd, because only three out of 45 LAFC-in-third outcomes involve them winning.
Vancouver & LAFC win
Let's start by assuming wins for both Vancouver and LAFC. I would be truly shocked if Vancouver lose a home finale against a defanged Frisco. Even though LAFC will be away from home against a Colorado squad with their playoffs on the line, it's hard to deny the Son-Bouanga Stepbrothers Connection. That they can win at Colorado isn't in doubt, but the problem is that even if they do ...
There are only three out of 81 scenarios where both VAN/LAFC win and LAFC end up in 3rd!
All three also require San Diego to win outright against Portland, and it doesn't matter what Minnesota end up doing in Carson.
Vancouver wins, LAFC draw or lose: 12 scenarios
There's an even distribution of other results here.
Half involve LAFC drawing, half with them losing.
They also split into exact thirds regarding San Diego's three possible results.
Most crucially, they all require that Minnesota does not win. Bookmark this for later.
If LAFC does not win outright and both Vancouver and Minnesota win ... LAFC cannot be third.
Vancouver improbably draws Dallas: 15 scenarios
Among these, only three involve LAFC winning at Colorado ...
...and they require that San Diego also wins outright.
Again, it doesn't matter what Minnesota does in those.
Only one of the 15 possibilities here involves Minnesota winning, and it requires SD and LAFC to also win outright.
Vancouver loses to Dallas, shocking everyone: 15 scenarios
Only three of these involve LAFC winning ...
... and they require San Diego to win outright.
Exactly one involves Minnesota winning against Galaxy.
Minnesota wins: Three scenarios
I think Minnesota is the canary in the Decision Day coalmine to watch for overall while the evening plays out, as you'll see when we go through San Diego and Minnesota in a moment.
LA Galaxy's home finale means the Carsonites may show up big, but Minnesota has plenty to play for in controlling its destiny and avoiding a first-round matchup against Seattle.
If Minnesota wins, both LAFC and San Diego have to win, period.
Vancouver can win, lose, or draw.
Phil's Take on whether it will be LAFC
Editing hat off, writing hat on.
I felt like it was going to be soccer gods/MLS-on-brand destiny that Austin FC would beat an international-break-altered LAFC to get to a full-strength LAFC in the first round of the playoffs, and despite Vancouver, LAFC, and San Diego all winning being just three of 81 possible outcomes, I feel confident that all three of those teams are going to win. There are a few reasons for that:
Vancouver and San Diego are both going to be motivated to win, given that both teams are vying for the No. 1 spot;
Vancouver is playing a team without its two main strikers, and is coming off a come-from-behind win on the road, against an Orlando team battling to stay out of the play-in game, traveling about as far as a team can in MLS; and
The top three West teams, when full strength, are playing with a combination of talent and cohesion that outclasses all other West teams. Seattle's possibly at the edge of that tier, and then I'd group Austin, Minnesota, and Portland (and possibly RSL, dependent on what they do Decision Day) in a tier below that. Dallas, Colorado, and San Jose are their own flawed third tier, with RSL possibly in there as well.
Austin-Minnesota's the other matchup delivering the most narrative for me, and given how the Kelvin Yeboah injury (suffered against Austin in the Open Cup semis, by the way) changed the team, Minnesota's clearly the most beatable of the three teams they could draw.
Which is even more reason to believe it's going to be LAFC. Austin does have the regular-season series sweep against the Black & Gold, as well as a formula in which they can rely on to eek out a 1-0 win (defend a fuckton, let Brad Stuver make a few excellent saves, engineer a set piece goal).
But neither of those games involved Son or a Son-infused Bouanga.
We now return you to more Moisés.
San Diego: 21 no-winners
As the "middle ground" between the most and least scenarios overall, there's more "outcome flexibility" here with one major exception. If San Diego wins, they cannot end up in 3rd place no matter what else happens.
We have a smaller field overall with a lot more scenario-breakers than with LAFC.
Vancouver wins in seven of 21, though five of those seven require LAFC to win too'
Minnesota wins in nine of 21; of those, Vancouver only win in three, and of those, LAFC only wins in one, which requires SDFC to draw; and
LAFC wins in 15 of 21
Phil's Take on whether it will be SDFC
I doubt it. There's narrative here as well if it ends up being a 2021 expansion team against a 2025 expansion, but I think San Diego's destined for second, which could make this a second-round trip to SoCal in November while No. 1 Vancouver and No. 5 Seattle have a Cascadia battle to get 90 minutes from MLS Cup.
Minnesota: the must-win 15
Every single one of these requires Minnesota to beat Galaxy outright. Out of the 81 overall scenarios, a Minnesota win makes 2/3 of them impossible. The question is whether they can get there with a beyond-depleted attack.
Vancouver win in five:
of those, LAFC win in just one, in which SD loses;
of those, SD win in two, where LAFC draw or lose;
San Diego win in six, which results in a completely even W/D/L series of combinations for Vancouver and LAFC; and
LAFC win in only three, where Vancouver W/D/L, and SD have to lose in all three
Phil's Take on whether it will be MNUFC
As much as I would enjoy that, I think Minnesota's destined for fourth and to get Schmetzerized in the first round.
Make a day of it: 5 pm Decision Day highlights
While waiting on the West to kick at 8 pm, MLS will offer plenty of East games; we have some specific recommendations for the 5 pm slate.
Atlanta United vs. DC United: The Wooden Spoon Bowl
The clear Verde All Day pick is Brad Guzan's farewell match, where the home side only needs a draw to hand the spoon to DC United. For reasons I'll get into on the next Emergency Podcast, I think it's possible that Josh Wolff could end up at either of these clubs as head coach by sometime next season, but the smarter money would be on DC.
NYCFC vs. Seattle Sounders
It'll be interesting to see how/if Brian Schmetzer rotates and rests against an NYC squad eager to not drop in the table should they lose or draw and Nashville win. If Austin gets to the Western Conference Final, it very well could be against the Sounders. (This is also the only cross-conference match of Decision Day, though with Seattle locked into the No. 5 seed, this will change absolutely nothing in the West.)
Nashville SC vs. Inter Miami
This match could decide the Golden Boot race, though it's more likely to be a victory lap for Lionel Messi (26 goals, 18 assists) than a chance for Sam Surridge (23 goals, five assists) to catch up. It's certainly possible Surridge could score four goals and Messi gets shut out ... but that's pretty far-fetched.
Also, even in 6th place and on 54 points, Nashville's trying to avoid the play-in game. A loss combined by wins by Orlando and Chicago would be enough to drop the Yotes to eighth; they'd then host a whole-lot-of-yellow match against Columbus to see who advances to play the Union.
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. For more coverage, check out Emergency Podcast! (an Austin FC Podcast) wherever you get your podcasts.
As the maxim goes, it's a marathon, not a sprint. Here are some of the best milestones along the way en route to Verde's second-ever playoff appearance.
Austin's looking at a playoff picture ranging from 5th through 9th. We did a lot of math to map out the possible pathways for Verde and the 10 teams still in the postseason picture.
Eighty-one different scenarios could play out on Decision Day 2025, determining who Verde faces in the first round of the 2025 MLS playoffs — considering that the top four teams in the West all play different opponents and can either win, lose, or draw to shuffle the first-round matchups.
(Seventh, eighth, and ninth places are also subject to what five teams do with their 243 possibilities, but as Austin FC fans, you're ultimately concerned about who lands in third to face a Verde team locked into the No. 6 seed.)
Vancouver can drop no lower than 2nd, so which of LAFC, San Diego, and Minnesota will end up No. 3 when all is said and done?
All of the following calculations and analysis were done without the use of AI. Verde All Day: Made By Humans. (And, thanks to Chase Hoffman, Python, a computer language better at counting than ChatGPT.)
Why even bring up generative AI, aside from the annoying news that MLS has started testing AI-generated match recaps? Ever since last weekend's results went final, folks have been feeding ChatGPT and other AI models and AI-powered search engines data and asking them to spit out probabilities and scenarios.
Guess what? A quick test we did revealed that ChatGPT thinks the impossible is possible. Among them: Reporting there are three ways that Vancouver could end up in third place. In actual reality, they can drop no lower than second.
The top four teams' results can play out exactly 81 different ways. Of the 81 different win/loss scenarios that can play out for the top four teams, here are how many result in each of the three possible opponents, but I beg you not to look at those percentages as "probability."
Those listed percentages are just how many of the possible outcomes result in those opponents, not how likely they are to happen. PlayoffStatus.com has broken out the probabilities as LAFC 44%, San Diego 30%, and Minnesota United 27%. They don't provide any context to what their model takes into account, but considering the "what it takes" of the 81 scenarios, those numbers feel much more representative than just assuming that the proportion of scenarios lines up to what will actually happen.
There's way too much math, so let's look at some reasonable assumptions based on what teams are playing whom, and then rattle off what helps or most needs to happen for them to end up 3rd. Phil will weigh in with "Phil's Take," and we'll rattle off some other interesting things to watch on Decision Day while waiting for the West to kick off at 8 pm.
If you want to look at all the math, as well as which scenarios you might be rooting for, we've got you covered.
LAFC: 45-way "odds favorite" ... or are they?
This is the one with the most paths, and it's the one that most people anecdotally seem to assume is happening. Let's look at the data after choosing some givens.
LAFC plays at Colorado on Saturday, with a full-strength squad that includes Son Heung-min and Denis Bouanga. Vancouver plays a Dallas team missing the trio of Petar Musa, Logan Farrington, and Ramiro due to yellow and red card suspensions. Depleted, low-on-attack Minnesota plays safe-from-the-Spoon LA Galaxy in Carson. San Diego goes to Portland, who need results to stay out of the play-in game (though it's also quite possible this is a playoff preview to an SDFC-Timbers series).
Here's a surprise before we get off to the races: Minnesota winning at Galaxy could be the biggest spoiler for LAFC ending up 3rd, because only three out of 45 LAFC-in-third outcomes involve them winning.
Vancouver & LAFC win
Let's start by assuming wins for both Vancouver and LAFC. I would be truly shocked if Vancouver lose a home finale against a defanged Frisco. Even though LAFC will be away from home against a Colorado squad with their playoffs on the line, it's hard to deny the Son-Bouanga Stepbrothers Connection. That they can win at Colorado isn't in doubt, but the problem is that even if they do ...
Vancouver wins, LAFC draw or lose: 12 scenarios
There's an even distribution of other results here.
Vancouver improbably draws Dallas: 15 scenarios
Among these, only three involve LAFC winning at Colorado ...
Vancouver loses to Dallas, shocking everyone: 15 scenarios
Only three of these involve LAFC winning ...
Minnesota wins: Three scenarios
I think Minnesota is the canary in the Decision Day coalmine to watch for overall while the evening plays out, as you'll see when we go through San Diego and Minnesota in a moment.
LA Galaxy's home finale means the Carsonites may show up big, but Minnesota has plenty to play for in controlling its destiny and avoiding a first-round matchup against Seattle.
Phil's Take on whether it will be LAFC
Editing hat off, writing hat on.
I felt like it was going to be soccer gods/MLS-on-brand destiny that Austin FC would beat an international-break-altered LAFC to get to a full-strength LAFC in the first round of the playoffs, and despite Vancouver, LAFC, and San Diego all winning being just three of 81 possible outcomes, I feel confident that all three of those teams are going to win. There are a few reasons for that:
Austin-Minnesota's the other matchup delivering the most narrative for me, and given how the Kelvin Yeboah injury (suffered against Austin in the Open Cup semis, by the way) changed the team, Minnesota's clearly the most beatable of the three teams they could draw.
Which is even more reason to believe it's going to be LAFC. Austin does have the regular-season series sweep against the Black & Gold, as well as a formula in which they can rely on to eek out a 1-0 win (defend a fuckton, let Brad Stuver make a few excellent saves, engineer a set piece goal).
But neither of those games involved Son or a Son-infused Bouanga.
We now return you to more Moisés.
San Diego: 21 no-winners
As the "middle ground" between the most and least scenarios overall, there's more "outcome flexibility" here with one major exception. If San Diego wins, they cannot end up in 3rd place no matter what else happens.
We have a smaller field overall with a lot more scenario-breakers than with LAFC.
Phil's Take on whether it will be SDFC
I doubt it. There's narrative here as well if it ends up being a 2021 expansion team against a 2025 expansion, but I think San Diego's destined for second, which could make this a second-round trip to SoCal in November while No. 1 Vancouver and No. 5 Seattle have a Cascadia battle to get 90 minutes from MLS Cup.
Minnesota: the must-win 15
Every single one of these requires Minnesota to beat Galaxy outright. Out of the 81 overall scenarios, a Minnesota win makes 2/3 of them impossible. The question is whether they can get there with a beyond-depleted attack.
Vancouver win in five:
Phil's Take on whether it will be MNUFC
As much as I would enjoy that, I think Minnesota's destined for fourth and to get Schmetzerized in the first round.
Make a day of it: 5 pm Decision Day highlights
While waiting on the West to kick at 8 pm, MLS will offer plenty of East games; we have some specific recommendations for the 5 pm slate.
Atlanta United vs. DC United: The Wooden Spoon Bowl
The clear Verde All Day pick is Brad Guzan's farewell match, where the home side only needs a draw to hand the spoon to DC United. For reasons I'll get into on the next Emergency Podcast, I think it's possible that Josh Wolff could end up at either of these clubs as head coach by sometime next season, but the smarter money would be on DC.
NYCFC vs. Seattle Sounders
It'll be interesting to see how/if Brian Schmetzer rotates and rests against an NYC squad eager to not drop in the table should they lose or draw and Nashville win. If Austin gets to the Western Conference Final, it very well could be against the Sounders. (This is also the only cross-conference match of Decision Day, though with Seattle locked into the No. 5 seed, this will change absolutely nothing in the West.)
Nashville SC vs. Inter Miami
This match could decide the Golden Boot race, though it's more likely to be a victory lap for Lionel Messi (26 goals, 18 assists) than a chance for Sam Surridge (23 goals, five assists) to catch up. It's certainly possible Surridge could score four goals and Messi gets shut out ... but that's pretty far-fetched.
Also, even in 6th place and on 54 points, Nashville's trying to avoid the play-in game. A loss combined by wins by Orlando and Chicago would be enough to drop the Yotes to eighth; they'd then host a whole-lot-of-yellow match against Columbus to see who advances to play the Union.
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. For more coverage, check out Emergency Podcast! (an Austin FC Podcast) wherever you get your podcasts.
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