What's this about xG now? We look anew into what the metric might say about 2025 Austin FC
Verde head coach Nico Estévez explained his stance on Saturday night a little more completely. But the positives he points to might not be as encouraging as he lets on.
Austin FC head coach Nico Estévez raised some eyebrows on Saturday night with his mention of expected goals (xG). He referenced the stat a measure of how his team was mounting a response against a Minnesota United FC team that scored a first goal on Saturday night ... en route to a 3-0 loss.
Yes, Verde might have been accumulating xG, but that didn't result in actual goals, and the loss wasn't just an isolated blip in an otherwise successful season — it stood as the third loss in four matches, by a combined score of 10-1, with a 1-0 home win over the winless Galaxy the only non-loss of this 10-2 four-match recent stretch.
In Tuesday's press conference ahead on tonight's must-get-right U.S. Open Cup match against El Paso Locomotive, Estévez explained a bit more as to what he was after when we mentioned xG.
After leading in with the observation that "much more possession in that game [against Minnesota] doesn't mean that you're going to do better," given the Loons' propensity this season to play without the ball, he used xG that Austin accumulated after each of Minnesota's first two goals to ascertain his team was managing purposeful possession.
"The last game, until the first goal they had, we had almost 0.5 xG. They had zero after the first goal," he said. Overall match xG was impacted a bit because the first goal was ruled an own goal and the shot you saw with your eyes didn't technically count as a shot – which is also how Sporting Kansas City registered a 1-0 win against LA Galaxy on Sunday night having zero official shots, as its one ball sent goalward was deflected in by the Galaxy's Maya Yoshida.
"We created two chances that put us in 0.7, 0.8 expected goals in that moment," he continued. "This is what I meant the other day about why I felt proud. After each goal, our xG was increasing because we had multiple chances.
"After we conceded the second goal, we were flat," he continued. "It was emotional. It was a really hard punch into our face. When we came back from halftime, and we changed things, as I was saying, like the purpose of the possession, we changed the shape to build with three and two and be more aggressive and breaking the first line quicker, and then be more aggressive with the one in the center box."
The aggressive play, which Estévez called for to create higher lines of confrontation to help enable the speed and verticality he said later are ideally the identity of his team, arguably left them vulnerable to the third goal scored against them in stoppage time – but, of course, that didn't so much change as the outcome as it merely heaped further indignity on the team.
I have several thoughts on this before we get into some exploration of how badly Verde's underperforming their xG.
Several thoughts on this
To review what we've said before, xG is the measure of how many shots you're accumulating as well as the percentage chance that shot has going in based on where on the field the shooter is positioned, the shot angle, and the defensive pressure on the shooter — with the post-shot xG measuring how likely the shot is to land in the back of the net once coming off the shooter's foot, head, or other legal body part.
Here's the shot chart per FBref, with the green line showing a goal scored. (Remember, the first goal in minute 22 is an own goal, so it doesn't show up in the chart, but it comes after Austin's first three shots and before Minnesota's first three official shots.)
Yes, there are responses, but per FBref's numbers, Austin doesn't register anything higher than a 0.14 xG shot all night, though to be fair, Minnesota's goals came on xG chances of 0.06 and 0.03 xG, though those numbers belie that Anthony Markanic got leverage on Oleksandr Svatok for an essentially unchallenged header (review the video if you want to see how posterized Svatok is on the play), and that Joaquin Pereyra is wide open on the shot resulting in his (credited) goal.
The MLS Analytics shot chart shows a little more starkness that the mounted xG as it shows a number of less-than-ideal chances. By definition, a 0.05 xG shot has a 95% chance of being dealt with. The Markanich chance wasn't deemed high xG, but once off his head, it had a 57% chance of scoring per the post-shot xG, as the defender contributing to the relatively low 0.06 xG value didn't impact the shot, and given Markanich's position on the field, it would have been a much higher xG chance were he open (which he essentially made himself once he got in the air, elevating above Svatok, to meet the header.)
The Loons made the most of their opportunities, getting off two average and 10 poor chances, per the American Soccer Analysis xG calculations, yet getting off eight of those 12 shots on target. By contrast, Verde had two good chances, seven average chances, and five poor chances, but only managed to get three of all those on target.
If given the choice between one 0.3 xG chance and six 0.05 xG chances, which technically have the same xG value when adding the six lower chances together, I'd take the 0.3 xG one. If you have a player who can finish (hold that thought), a 0.3 xG shot will have a high likelihood of getting you a goal.
But getting a shot on target is only part of the formula for scoring a goal. One of the enduring horrible memories from this match will be one of the xG accumulators following the first goal that Estévez praised — Myrto Uzuni's 26th-minute shot that went straight to Loons 'keeper Dayne St. Clair without troubling him.
It's one thing to get in position to score; it's another to meaningfully threaten another team with shots that truly put them on their toes, which is at the heart of the disconnect that came from Estévez's post-match comments. Estévez used xG as the metric for showing what he saw as Austin's measurable response, whereas the eye test showed that Austin followed the first unfortunate goal by some weak attempts at equalizing, followed by a poor defensive effort that led to the second goal, followed by failing to get off another shot until the 49th minute.
The larger issue: G-xG
Verde is dead last in one category this season that tells a lot of the story: goals minus expected goal, which measures efficiency with the chances they have. In 2022, Verde famously overperformed xG to a second-place finish in the West and a run to the conference finals, but they're on track to underperform xG in 2025 by an even greater margin.
In 2025, Austin has mounted a -6.9 G-xG (13.9 xG per FBref’s numbers), contributing to an overall -6 goal differential on the season. That GD is tied with Houston, with only five teams in the league currently worse. Only 0-8-3 Montréal has scored fewer goals than Verde at this point in the season; even the also 0-8-3 Galaxy have one goal more than Verde at this stage.
In 2024, these were the five most underperforming their xG teams, which I've noted along with how those teams ended up doing in the overall standings. (Note that FBref’s numbers don’t figure own goals into the goal totals, in case you’re wondering why these goal numbers might differ a bit from what’s in their MLS standings if you’re cross-referencing those.)
Nashville SC, -7.6 (37 goals, 44.6 xG), 13th in the East, missed playoffs
San Jose Earthquakes, -6.4 (39 goals, 45.4 xG), Wooden Spoon, missed playoffs
Atlanta United, -6.4 (45 goals, 51.4 xG), 9th in East, just made playoffs
Chicago Fire, -4 (40 goals, 44 xG), last in the East, missed playoffs
New York Red Bulls, -3.5 (53 goals, 56.5 xG), 7th in East, lost in MLS Cup
A mixed bag there, to be sure, but given that Atlanta would have missed the playoffs were they in the West, last year’s trendlines moved more toward missing the playoffs for teams that underperformed your xG, though the four biggest underperformers were also four of the seven lowest scoring teams, along with Austin, New England, and Toronto, who all missed the playoffs.
(Atlanta, the best of the worst seven, were also tied with Houston and Charlotte on 45 goals scored; all three of those teams made the playoffs, with Charlotte underperforming xG by -1.7 and Houston actually overperforming xG at 1.9.)
Here's Verde's G-xG through the years:
2024: -0.6, missed playoffs (with -9 GD)
2023: +5.5, missed playoffs (with -6 GD)
2022: +13.1, led league in overperforming xG and made playoffs (with +16 GD)
2021, -12.2, missed playoffs (with -21 GD)
As you see, last season marked the one time they've arrived at just about the number of goals their xG said they'd achieve.
The eye test tells you that Austin players are struggling to finish their chances, and G-xG bears that out. Brandon Vázquez still "leads" all MLS players with a -3 G-xG, and Uzuni's right there in the mix with a -2.3xG, sixth-worst in the league.
They're among other talented players like Hany Mukhtar and Denis Bouanga who are underperforming their xG, so it's not just an Austin issue, but only Nashville has two key attackers combining for a negative G-xG value in Austin's ballpark. Mukhtar and Sam Surridge have combined for a -4.5 compared to the Austin designated players' -5.3, though Nashville also erupted for seven goals in a single match (featuring a Surridge hat trick and Mukhtar brace), whereas Austin has seven goals total after 11 matches.
While Wednesday's match against El Paso won't do anything toward those league stats for obvious reasons, the chance to get going against USL-level defenders could help unlock Uzuni and Vázquez (assuming they play, though Estévez did say they'd aim for an "ideal 11" in each of the upcoming May matches, though with Wednesday and Saturday dates, that could test the bounds of human performance).
Certainly, the G-xG numbers show how critical it is to Verde's fortunes that those players are unlocked and that the goals scored get closer to what xG claims they should be scoring.
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. You can comment here if you’re a subscriber, or reach out via Bluesky.
Thanks to a comeback involving three goals in seven minutes, Verde will play its rivals in Orange with a chance to advance to the U.S. Open quarterfinals.
Saturday night brought some unusual sights, including a ball rolling through Brad Stuver's legs into the Verde goal. It also brought the dearth of offense defining the 2025 season.
Austin FC head coach Nico Estévez raised some eyebrows on Saturday night with his mention of expected goals (xG). He referenced the stat a measure of how his team was mounting a response against a Minnesota United FC team that scored a first goal on Saturday night ... en route to a 3-0 loss.
Yes, Verde might have been accumulating xG, but that didn't result in actual goals, and the loss wasn't just an isolated blip in an otherwise successful season — it stood as the third loss in four matches, by a combined score of 10-1, with a 1-0 home win over the winless Galaxy the only non-loss of this 10-2 four-match recent stretch.
In Tuesday's press conference ahead on tonight's must-get-right U.S. Open Cup match against El Paso Locomotive, Estévez explained a bit more as to what he was after when we mentioned xG.
After leading in with the observation that "much more possession in that game [against Minnesota] doesn't mean that you're going to do better," given the Loons' propensity this season to play without the ball, he used xG that Austin accumulated after each of Minnesota's first two goals to ascertain his team was managing purposeful possession.
"The last game, until the first goal they had, we had almost 0.5 xG. They had zero after the first goal," he said. Overall match xG was impacted a bit because the first goal was ruled an own goal and the shot you saw with your eyes didn't technically count as a shot – which is also how Sporting Kansas City registered a 1-0 win against LA Galaxy on Sunday night having zero official shots, as its one ball sent goalward was deflected in by the Galaxy's Maya Yoshida.
"We created two chances that put us in 0.7, 0.8 expected goals in that moment," he continued. "This is what I meant the other day about why I felt proud. After each goal, our xG was increasing because we had multiple chances.
"After we conceded the second goal, we were flat," he continued. "It was emotional. It was a really hard punch into our face. When we came back from halftime, and we changed things, as I was saying, like the purpose of the possession, we changed the shape to build with three and two and be more aggressive and breaking the first line quicker, and then be more aggressive with the one in the center box."
The aggressive play, which Estévez called for to create higher lines of confrontation to help enable the speed and verticality he said later are ideally the identity of his team, arguably left them vulnerable to the third goal scored against them in stoppage time – but, of course, that didn't so much change as the outcome as it merely heaped further indignity on the team.
I have several thoughts on this before we get into some exploration of how badly Verde's underperforming their xG.
Several thoughts on this
To review what we've said before, xG is the measure of how many shots you're accumulating as well as the percentage chance that shot has going in based on where on the field the shooter is positioned, the shot angle, and the defensive pressure on the shooter — with the post-shot xG measuring how likely the shot is to land in the back of the net once coming off the shooter's foot, head, or other legal body part.
Here's the shot chart per FBref, with the green line showing a goal scored. (Remember, the first goal in minute 22 is an own goal, so it doesn't show up in the chart, but it comes after Austin's first three shots and before Minnesota's first three official shots.)
Yes, there are responses, but per FBref's numbers, Austin doesn't register anything higher than a 0.14 xG shot all night, though to be fair, Minnesota's goals came on xG chances of 0.06 and 0.03 xG, though those numbers belie that Anthony Markanic got leverage on Oleksandr Svatok for an essentially unchallenged header (review the video if you want to see how posterized Svatok is on the play), and that Joaquin Pereyra is wide open on the shot resulting in his (credited) goal.
The MLS Analytics shot chart shows a little more starkness that the mounted xG as it shows a number of less-than-ideal chances. By definition, a 0.05 xG shot has a 95% chance of being dealt with. The Markanich chance wasn't deemed high xG, but once off his head, it had a 57% chance of scoring per the post-shot xG, as the defender contributing to the relatively low 0.06 xG value didn't impact the shot, and given Markanich's position on the field, it would have been a much higher xG chance were he open (which he essentially made himself once he got in the air, elevating above Svatok, to meet the header.)
The Loons made the most of their opportunities, getting off two average and 10 poor chances, per the American Soccer Analysis xG calculations, yet getting off eight of those 12 shots on target. By contrast, Verde had two good chances, seven average chances, and five poor chances, but only managed to get three of all those on target.
If given the choice between one 0.3 xG chance and six 0.05 xG chances, which technically have the same xG value when adding the six lower chances together, I'd take the 0.3 xG one. If you have a player who can finish (hold that thought), a 0.3 xG shot will have a high likelihood of getting you a goal.
But getting a shot on target is only part of the formula for scoring a goal. One of the enduring horrible memories from this match will be one of the xG accumulators following the first goal that Estévez praised — Myrto Uzuni's 26th-minute shot that went straight to Loons 'keeper Dayne St. Clair without troubling him.
It's one thing to get in position to score; it's another to meaningfully threaten another team with shots that truly put them on their toes, which is at the heart of the disconnect that came from Estévez's post-match comments. Estévez used xG as the metric for showing what he saw as Austin's measurable response, whereas the eye test showed that Austin followed the first unfortunate goal by some weak attempts at equalizing, followed by a poor defensive effort that led to the second goal, followed by failing to get off another shot until the 49th minute.
The larger issue: G-xG
Verde is dead last in one category this season that tells a lot of the story: goals minus expected goal, which measures efficiency with the chances they have. In 2022, Verde famously overperformed xG to a second-place finish in the West and a run to the conference finals, but they're on track to underperform xG in 2025 by an even greater margin.
In 2025, Austin has mounted a -6.9 G-xG (13.9 xG per FBref’s numbers), contributing to an overall -6 goal differential on the season. That GD is tied with Houston, with only five teams in the league currently worse. Only 0-8-3 Montréal has scored fewer goals than Verde at this point in the season; even the also 0-8-3 Galaxy have one goal more than Verde at this stage.
In 2024, these were the five most underperforming their xG teams, which I've noted along with how those teams ended up doing in the overall standings. (Note that FBref’s numbers don’t figure own goals into the goal totals, in case you’re wondering why these goal numbers might differ a bit from what’s in their MLS standings if you’re cross-referencing those.)
A mixed bag there, to be sure, but given that Atlanta would have missed the playoffs were they in the West, last year’s trendlines moved more toward missing the playoffs for teams that underperformed your xG, though the four biggest underperformers were also four of the seven lowest scoring teams, along with Austin, New England, and Toronto, who all missed the playoffs.
(Atlanta, the best of the worst seven, were also tied with Houston and Charlotte on 45 goals scored; all three of those teams made the playoffs, with Charlotte underperforming xG by -1.7 and Houston actually overperforming xG at 1.9.)
Here's Verde's G-xG through the years:
As you see, last season marked the one time they've arrived at just about the number of goals their xG said they'd achieve.
The eye test tells you that Austin players are struggling to finish their chances, and G-xG bears that out. Brandon Vázquez still "leads" all MLS players with a -3 G-xG, and Uzuni's right there in the mix with a -2.3xG, sixth-worst in the league.
They're among other talented players like Hany Mukhtar and Denis Bouanga who are underperforming their xG, so it's not just an Austin issue, but only Nashville has two key attackers combining for a negative G-xG value in Austin's ballpark. Mukhtar and Sam Surridge have combined for a -4.5 compared to the Austin designated players' -5.3, though Nashville also erupted for seven goals in a single match (featuring a Surridge hat trick and Mukhtar brace), whereas Austin has seven goals total after 11 matches.
While Wednesday's match against El Paso won't do anything toward those league stats for obvious reasons, the chance to get going against USL-level defenders could help unlock Uzuni and Vázquez (assuming they play, though Estévez did say they'd aim for an "ideal 11" in each of the upcoming May matches, though with Wednesday and Saturday dates, that could test the bounds of human performance).
Certainly, the G-xG numbers show how critical it is to Verde's fortunes that those players are unlocked and that the goals scored get closer to what xG claims they should be scoring.
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. You can comment here if you’re a subscriber, or reach out via Bluesky.
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