Who wants this ball on the field? Perhaps neither Austin FC nor their Sunday opponent

It's a weird thing to see given Austin FC played a possession-heavy style its first four years under former head coach Josh Wolff.

Through five matches — in part absorbing just 24% possession (per FBref) in their 2-1 win over San Diego FC on Sunday — Austin FC has just 43.4% possession, 28th out of 30 MLS teams. One of the two teams below Austin, St. Louis City SC – with 40.4% — hosts Verde on Sunday, which brings up the question of how the teams will play each other.

St. Louis actually had the bulk of the possession in its 1-0 loss to the Philadelphia Union last time out, but held the ball just 29% of the time in its 0-0 draw against San Diego (getting a mere 0.1 xG), and 30% in their 3-0 win over the Galaxy, in which they won the xG battle 2.0 to 1.8.

There's another less-known stat in which they're also next door to each other to provides a clue as to how both teams play — or as the case may be with Nico Estévez's version of Verde, how they can play if the situation calls for it.

Let's talk about PPDA (not PDA)

Thanks to Paul Harvey, whose 2025 MLS Dashboard has come alive, we can look at stats like PPDA[[1]] — passes per defensive action — to take cold, hard data and line it up next to the eye test.

Coaches' Voice has a good explainer here, with this key passage crystallizing it:

The number of passes made by the opposition [within the zone from the edge of the center circle in the attacking him to the endline the team is defending] is divided by the number of defensive actions made by the out-of-possession team to give a number for PPDA. These defensive actions are tackles, interceptions, challenges (or failed tackle attempts) and fouls. The number that this calculation produces gives a value to the intensity of the out-of-possession team’s press.

Verde is tied for second in this metric (along with Atlanta United), with 10.5 passes per defensive action. Only St. Louis is higher here, with 10.6 PPDA — odd given that St. Louis has a reputation (albeit, under initial head coach Bradley Carnell) for being a pressing team.

Coaches' Voice has a bit of an explainer:

Pressing is also far more than the events that are included in PPDA. By only including on-the-ball events – tackles, interceptions, challenges and fouls – that a pressing team make, you are ignoring all of the work the rest of the team does. Much of the effectiveness of a press comes in how exactly the player challenging for the ball is supported. The shape of the team and distances between players is absolutely integral to their success. Also, a pressing team could force a misplaced pass in a dangerous part of the pitch without ever making a tackle or challenge to win the ball, but merely by pressing as a group near the ball. 

Like the goals added metric that loves Julio Cascante, PPDA doesn't factor in off-ball actions, making it useful in telling part of the story but not all of it. A high PPDA doesn't necessarily mean that an opponent is passing at will through your defense en route to goal.

Indeed, Verde's still second in the West in goals allowed — with St. Louis first, allowing just a single goal (even with first-choice goalkeeper Roman Burki out) – and first in xGA of all teams that have played five matches. (Miami's played just four and has a 3.4 xGA compared to Austin's 3.6.)

Recall this Brad Stuver quote from a few weeks back: "We've been working on having each other's backs and getting compact and making sure that we always have someone there to make the play."

That approach has been clear throughout the season, especially in last Sunday's match, which had Verde defending a one-goal lead (that they couldn't build on, but that's a whole issue we're keeping an eye on) for more than an hour against one of the most possession-happy teams in the league.

Here's what Verde is doing with their defensive actions so far (all stats from FBref):

• Tackles + Interceptions: 121 (18th in MLS)
• Clearances: 142 (11th in MLS)
• Blocks: 56 (14th in MLS)

In other words, they're about the middle of the pack overall. Their tackle percentage against dribbles is something to work on (at 47%, it's 27th overall), especially with 53 of their 79 tackles coming in the defensive third — which leads the league. Curiously, they're dead last in middle third tackles with 21, whereas true high-pressing teams tend to rack up many more middle third tackles.

Per the Dashboard, they're also second in negative field tilt, a further indication that the ball makes its way to Austin's defensive half of the field quite a bit.

On the offensive end

Just because Verde doesn't have a lot of the ball doesn't mean they're not active when they do have it.

Per FBref, Verde is still top third in shot-creating actions (currently 9th), lead the league in deadball goal-creating actions (with three, all belonging to Owen Wolff), 8th in key passes (passes leading directly to a shot), and 15th in progressive carries, all leading to being 15th in non-penalty xG (npxG).

And given that they haven't yet gotten a penalty kick awarded to them yet — something you're painfully aware of – their xG is exactly the same as their npxG. (And, thanks to their sturdy defense, 5th in expected goal differential per 90, though there's a gulf between their total xGD of 2.7 though five matches and their actual goal differential of just one.)

That's a 6.3 xG, by the way, versus just four goals in 2025.

Perhaps they'll close the gap on that Sunday, with Myrto Uzuni set to return from international duty and given that he's responsible for 1.3 of that 6.3 xG without a goal. It's true that St. Louis has only allowed one goal all season, coming against a Philadelphia team with 1.4 xG to just 0.2 xG for Sunday's hosts. (They're not usually that anemic; they've gotten to an xG of 2.0 twice this season, despite their two absolutely offensive clunkers.)

But that all depends on how much of the ball Verde wants. They might not want a whole lot of it.

Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. You can comment here if you’re a subscriber, or reach out via Bluesky.

[[1]]: We'll leave the PDA talk to Swoontower Soccer, which recently discussed how smoochy the 2025 version of the team has been.