You might not be feeling great about that 5-1 loss that Austin FC suffered to Vancouver Whitecaps FC on Saturday. That's totally understandable.
But if you're looking for solace in numbers, you might have to do a bit of digging to get what you're looking for ... but they're there.
In what I'm intending as a public service, let me walk you through some of them today.
They can still make the playoffs (doing less overall than they've already done)
Last week, I determined that seven of the nine teams in the West in the past two seasons who were in a playoff place after seven weeks stayed there. Of course, Austin was the one team that was in a playoff place both those seasons that dropped out by season's end, but they were barely in that top nine at that juncture in 2023 and 2024, and their 2025 start was more reminiscent of what they accomplished in 2022.
The math's still there for Verde to make the playoffs, even coming off a loss that showed them to be the weakest they've been all season. They're still on a 1.63 points per game pace with what they've done so far, which works out to around 56 points, which would have been good for 5th in the West and 4th in the East last season.
To get to the 45-point mark that usually serves at the playoff-placing floor, Austin FC would need to play at a 1.27 PPG pace the rest of the way. If you believe this team can go 8W-9L-8D or 9W-9L-5D for the remainder of the season, they'd arrive at exactly 45 points with that record.
But let's look at some other numbers showing what they've done so far.
Spreading the wealth
If you were worried about how goals might be concentrated among a few players this season — what few goals there have been so far, to be fair — that hasn't been the case.
The good news is that through eight matches, Verde have six different goal scorers, including both starting fullbacks, one of two young midfielders the club has invested years in developing, and all three designated players.
The bad news, of course, is that each of those six players only has scored one goal, but as we'll see with some other numbers in a moment, it doesn't have to stay that way.
Three players who haven't scored yet have at least 0.3 xG accumulated so far this season, an indicator that they'll eventually make good on a chance and join the scoring party.
Two of those, Owen Wolff and Jáder Obrian, seem more likely to do this than Besard Šabović per the eye test, as he's has had a worrying series of botched attempts. Yet Šabović has gotten himself in really good positions to score in accumulating his current xG — it's not just a great number of poor attempts adding up. He has seven shots, with just one technically on target, for 0.4 xG. That certainly could be better, but he's at least getting set up to contribute.
Wolff, meanwhile, has set himself up as more of a distributor, leading the team with three assists. But should the offense develop its chemistry, it's conceivable that Wolff will be the beneficiary of front-three assists. (Or, in their current state, front two plus whatever Osman Bukari is doing, which is something a lot of us are collectively hoping head coach Nico Estévez will, you know, take a look at.)
Verde shouldn't have just six goals, if you believe that xG neatly correlates to goalscoring.
Currently, their G-xG rating per FBref numbers is -2.9, meaning that with 8.9 xG and only six goals, you'd expect them to have three more than they actually have. Only seven teams in the league have greater negatives in this category, which indicates either finishing problems, bad luck, or some combination for Verde.
The eye test as well as the xG values on their chances tell us that Brandon Vázquez and Myrto Uzuni are getting in position to score.
Similarly, Austin's A-xA is currently at -2.3, working out to just five assists to their 7.3 expected assists, with only six MLS teams currently worse.
If you believe this is a law of averages matter, look for Verde to possibly right this against a Galaxy team that has given up nearly two goals a match so far this season, and will be missing a starting center back, Zanka (who has not been great defensively), thanks to a red card issued last week in LA's draw with Houston. (Their best center back, Maya Yoshida, is also expected to remain out. We know who to reach out to about this development to learn more, and we'll be doing that soon.)
Speaking of Houston, Verde travels to H-Town to close out April, and the Dynamo have let in 12 goals so far this season.
If Verde can't score goals against two of the four most sieve-like teams in the West over the next two matches, there's more than a law of averages issue in effect.
Some defensive numbers are still good
So, Vancouver outperforming a 4.5 xG with five goals on Saturday didn't do wonders for Austin FC's sterling-up-until-then defensive numbers. But despite that performance – hopefully a mere outlier – the team still has some numbers worth celebrating.
Verde are still tied for fifth in clearances and they're second for tackles in the defensive third, two numbers that indicate that despite what happened on Saturday, they're still better at absorbing and expelling attacking threats than most of the other teams in the league.
They've also secured clean sheets in half their matches, tied for league-best with four other teams, most of whom are (like Austin, let's remind ourselves) in playoff places. And they're still fifth in the West in xGA, even after all the xGA water they took on in their last match.
Always look on the bright side of life
That might not be a lot to go on, but the fact that there's only one bad loss in the first eight matches already makes 2025 better than last year. At this stage of 2024, they also had three losses, but those included the opening day loss to Minnesota (with that first half arguably being the worst half of soccer the team's ever played), the infamous 2-0 loss to Orlando (where they achieved 0.16 xG on three total shots while racking up 57% of mostly-pointless possession), and the 1-0 loss at St. Louis (62% possession for two total shots, both by Sebastián Driussi, registering 0.32 worth of xG).
Of course, numbers only go so far to make one feel good or bad about a soccer team. The numbers I'm eager to see Saturday are pretty basic ones: How many goals Austin scores, how few they let in, whether they can win and get to 16 points in the table against a team that only has three points which has them dead last in the West.
While it's still possible for Verde to get to the playoffs if they don't win their next two matches — there's plenty of soccer in the season left, after all — the disappointment will be palpable if they can't win at home Saturday and at least draw away at Houston. Those teams are arguably struggling more than Austin right now, and given what we've seen of them in recent weeks, they're certainly beatable.
Numbers say Austin FC is still at least a decent soccer team. Will their performances the next two matches say the same?
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. You can comment here if you’re a subscriber, or reach out via Bluesky.
You might not be feeling great about that 5-1 loss that Austin FC suffered to Vancouver Whitecaps FC on Saturday. That's totally understandable.
But if you're looking for solace in numbers, you might have to do a bit of digging to get what you're looking for ... but they're there.
In what I'm intending as a public service, let me walk you through some of them today.
They can still make the playoffs (doing less overall than they've already done)
Last week, I determined that seven of the nine teams in the West in the past two seasons who were in a playoff place after seven weeks stayed there. Of course, Austin was the one team that was in a playoff place both those seasons that dropped out by season's end, but they were barely in that top nine at that juncture in 2023 and 2024, and their 2025 start was more reminiscent of what they accomplished in 2022.
The math's still there for Verde to make the playoffs, even coming off a loss that showed them to be the weakest they've been all season. They're still on a 1.63 points per game pace with what they've done so far, which works out to around 56 points, which would have been good for 5th in the West and 4th in the East last season.
To get to the 45-point mark that usually serves at the playoff-placing floor, Austin FC would need to play at a 1.27 PPG pace the rest of the way. If you believe this team can go 8W-9L-8D or 9W-9L-5D for the remainder of the season, they'd arrive at exactly 45 points with that record.
But let's look at some other numbers showing what they've done so far.
Spreading the wealth
If you were worried about how goals might be concentrated among a few players this season — what few goals there have been so far, to be fair — that hasn't been the case.
The good news is that through eight matches, Verde have six different goal scorers, including both starting fullbacks, one of two young midfielders the club has invested years in developing, and all three designated players.
The bad news, of course, is that each of those six players only has scored one goal, but as we'll see with some other numbers in a moment, it doesn't have to stay that way.
Three players who haven't scored yet have at least 0.3 xG accumulated so far this season, an indicator that they'll eventually make good on a chance and join the scoring party.
Two of those, Owen Wolff and Jáder Obrian, seem more likely to do this than Besard Šabović per the eye test, as he's has had a worrying series of botched attempts. Yet Šabović has gotten himself in really good positions to score in accumulating his current xG — it's not just a great number of poor attempts adding up. He has seven shots, with just one technically on target, for 0.4 xG. That certainly could be better, but he's at least getting set up to contribute.
Wolff, meanwhile, has set himself up as more of a distributor, leading the team with three assists. But should the offense develop its chemistry, it's conceivable that Wolff will be the beneficiary of front-three assists. (Or, in their current state, front two plus whatever Osman Bukari is doing, which is something a lot of us are collectively hoping head coach Nico Estévez will, you know, take a look at.)
Underperforming the numbers
Verde shouldn't have just six goals, if you believe that xG neatly correlates to goalscoring.
Currently, their G-xG rating per FBref numbers is -2.9, meaning that with 8.9 xG and only six goals, you'd expect them to have three more than they actually have. Only seven teams in the league have greater negatives in this category, which indicates either finishing problems, bad luck, or some combination for Verde.
The eye test as well as the xG values on their chances tell us that Brandon Vázquez and Myrto Uzuni are getting in position to score.
Similarly, Austin's A-xA is currently at -2.3, working out to just five assists to their 7.3 expected assists, with only six MLS teams currently worse.
If you believe this is a law of averages matter, look for Verde to possibly right this against a Galaxy team that has given up nearly two goals a match so far this season, and will be missing a starting center back, Zanka (who has not been great defensively), thanks to a red card issued last week in LA's draw with Houston. (Their best center back, Maya Yoshida, is also expected to remain out. We know who to reach out to about this development to learn more, and we'll be doing that soon.)
Speaking of Houston, Verde travels to H-Town to close out April, and the Dynamo have let in 12 goals so far this season.
If Verde can't score goals against two of the four most sieve-like teams in the West over the next two matches, there's more than a law of averages issue in effect.
Some defensive numbers are still good
So, Vancouver outperforming a 4.5 xG with five goals on Saturday didn't do wonders for Austin FC's sterling-up-until-then defensive numbers. But despite that performance – hopefully a mere outlier – the team still has some numbers worth celebrating.
Verde are still tied for fifth in clearances and they're second for tackles in the defensive third, two numbers that indicate that despite what happened on Saturday, they're still better at absorbing and expelling attacking threats than most of the other teams in the league.
They've also secured clean sheets in half their matches, tied for league-best with four other teams, most of whom are (like Austin, let's remind ourselves) in playoff places. And they're still fifth in the West in xGA, even after all the xGA water they took on in their last match.
Always look on the bright side of life
That might not be a lot to go on, but the fact that there's only one bad loss in the first eight matches already makes 2025 better than last year. At this stage of 2024, they also had three losses, but those included the opening day loss to Minnesota (with that first half arguably being the worst half of soccer the team's ever played), the infamous 2-0 loss to Orlando (where they achieved 0.16 xG on three total shots while racking up 57% of mostly-pointless possession), and the 1-0 loss at St. Louis (62% possession for two total shots, both by Sebastián Driussi, registering 0.32 worth of xG).
Of course, numbers only go so far to make one feel good or bad about a soccer team. The numbers I'm eager to see Saturday are pretty basic ones: How many goals Austin scores, how few they let in, whether they can win and get to 16 points in the table against a team that only has three points which has them dead last in the West.
While it's still possible for Verde to get to the playoffs if they don't win their next two matches — there's plenty of soccer in the season left, after all — the disappointment will be palpable if they can't win at home Saturday and at least draw away at Houston. Those teams are arguably struggling more than Austin right now, and given what we've seen of them in recent weeks, they're certainly beatable.
Numbers say Austin FC is still at least a decent soccer team. Will their performances the next two matches say the same?
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. You can comment here if you’re a subscriber, or reach out via Bluesky.
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