As we officially launch into 2026, we look at a chart that tells us a lot about 2025 ... and how Verde needs to improve. (But they did improve compared to what 2024's chart revealed.)
While 2025 is, by several key metrics, Austin FC's second-best season ever, 2025 also had some frustrating elements that fans would like to leave behind like a bad habit overcome with a timely New Year's Resolution.
So, we begin 2026 with a chart, and some nerdery to go with it.
Behold the rolling NPxGD chart! This needs some explanation, but it's not as puzzling as it looks.
The chart shows the season-long trend lines for Austin FC's 34-game regular season, looking at what the team achieved in expected goals (not counting penalties, so gauging on-field chance creation) over the more recent five games on the calendar grid.
The blue line is npxG (non-penalty expected goals) for Austin FC, and the red line is npxG by Austin FC's opponents. The most reductive way to put it is, where you see sections of blue, that's when Austin FC's generally playing better than its opponents (per the npxG metric), and where you see sections of red, that's when Austin FC's playing worse.
To remind you, this was Austin FC's 2025, per MLSSoccer.com's form guide.
The first half of the schedule includes the winless stretch from April 26 to May 31 which was clearly the most difficult and disheartening patch of the season, while the second half starts with the 4-3-1 stretch (commencing with the slump-busting June 7 win at Colorado, which I named one of Austin FC's six critical victories of 2025) that effectively saved the season and got Verde back into realistic playoff contention.
As with many stats, xG doesn't tell the whole story — remember this snippet from the win over the Rapids, in a period when Verde was experiencing an npxG gap:
Verde's defense weathered 19 Rapids shots (five on target) totaling about 3.7 xG, leading the usually xG-minded Estévez to say, "I don't care about the stats today," before pointing out the xG that his team accumulated en route to the welcome win.
Austin's rolling npxG peaked on Aug. 30, during a very complete win over the Quakes at home — including arguably the best performance of the season for the now-departed Osman Bukari.
In late July, I explored the phenomenon of Austin FC faltering from August on, and the trendlines did, unfortunately, repeat themselves in 2025 — though maybe not as badly as in past seasons.
To close out the season, Verde went 1W 1L 2D in August, 2W 2L 0D in September, and 1W 2L 0D in October, for a total post-July record of 4W 5L 2D, or 14 points out of a possible 33. That is, however, a 1.27 PPG performance, the best Verde's done post-July in its history, even better than the 12-from-33 skid to the finish that 2022's team experienced. (They did finish with 1.38 PPG on the season, so it was technically a dip, but not to the level of 2023, when they only won one of their final 11.)
And the rolling npxGD chart for 2025 looks a lot better than the one in 2024.
2024, being Josh Wolff's final season with Austin FC, was an objectively terrible year.
What do other rolling npxGDs look like?
All MLS teams experience peaks and valleys; that's just the nature of the league. But some weather it better than Austin. Let's look at a few.
Here's Vancouver's 2025.
Save from one rough 2W 4L 0D patch right after a disappointing Concacaf Champions League final in Mexico, the Whitecaps weathered injuries and one key exit (Pedro Vite, soon to be replaced by Thomas Müller) to have a very consistent and successful season. Only one team in the West had a better record in a race that came down to Decision Day.
San Diego FC actually had more ups and downs (though they were still in a blue zone when losing to Austin FC in Q2 Stadium in late March), but finished the season on an upward swing, though they actually came close to blowing the West race by going winless in three before winning their final two to secure the No. 1 seed.
The Supporters' Shield winners (and MLS Cup champions) had one rough patch in the first half of the season, but excelled down the stretch.
And if you wonder why LAFC went 6W 1L 1D down the stretch (and 10W 3L 4D in the second half of the season), other than acquiring Son Heung-min, here's how 2025 looked.
Here's one more, just to show how fortunes turned for the Galaxy in 2025.
Compare that to what they did with Riqui Puig in 2024, getting 64 points while only getting 50.7 xPoints, with a 60.5 xG and a 54.3 xGA, meaning they did better than the stats said they should have.
One more thing I noticed
Austin FC started and ended 2025 with a rolling xG under 1, and in the final match against the Quakes, reached a nadir for the season with 0.2 xG per FBref. Indeed, counting all xG (including penalties, which Verde didn't win a lot of in 2025), the team was under 1 xG in 13 matches, while allowing less than one in 11.
Chance creation and goal scoring continue to be concerns for Verde in 2026 despite the acquisitions of Jayden Nelson and Joseph Rosales, but defense is also a concern, especially late in the season — over the last 11 matches, starting with the loss at Montréal, opponents averaged 1.9 xG per match against Austin. Given that, it's amazing that Verde finished 2025 as well as they did compared to past seasons ... and it's something the team could stand to work on in 2026.
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. For more coverage, check out Emergency Podcast! (an Austin FC Podcast) wherever you get your podcasts.
A fan favorite may be on his way out, but an MLS Cup champion with a playoff goal contribution of nearly two per 90 minutes might be on his way in. One is more likely than the other.
Rosales comes to Austin in a cash-for-trade deal, and then by virtue of a new contract he signed, will be Verde until June 2029 with an option for the '29-'30 season.
The 25-year-old Honduran wingback is reportedly coming to Austin FC for $1.5 million in either GAM or cash. But what does that pickup mean for the rest of the roster — particularly the left backs?
Three players were acquired by Austin FC on Thursday. One is a young, speedy winger with roster-changing potential. The other two are SuperDraft picks likely bound for VerDos.
While 2025 is, by several key metrics, Austin FC's second-best season ever, 2025 also had some frustrating elements that fans would like to leave behind like a bad habit overcome with a timely New Year's Resolution.
So, we begin 2026 with a chart, and some nerdery to go with it.
Behold the rolling NPxGD chart! This needs some explanation, but it's not as puzzling as it looks.
The chart shows the season-long trend lines for Austin FC's 34-game regular season, looking at what the team achieved in expected goals (not counting penalties, so gauging on-field chance creation) over the more recent five games on the calendar grid.
The blue line is npxG (non-penalty expected goals) for Austin FC, and the red line is npxG by Austin FC's opponents. The most reductive way to put it is, where you see sections of blue, that's when Austin FC's generally playing better than its opponents (per the npxG metric), and where you see sections of red, that's when Austin FC's playing worse.
To remind you, this was Austin FC's 2025, per MLSSoccer.com's form guide.
The first half of the schedule includes the winless stretch from April 26 to May 31 which was clearly the most difficult and disheartening patch of the season, while the second half starts with the 4-3-1 stretch (commencing with the slump-busting June 7 win at Colorado, which I named one of Austin FC's six critical victories of 2025) that effectively saved the season and got Verde back into realistic playoff contention.
As with many stats, xG doesn't tell the whole story — remember this snippet from the win over the Rapids, in a period when Verde was experiencing an npxG gap:
Verde's defense weathered 19 Rapids shots (five on target) totaling about 3.7 xG, leading the usually xG-minded Estévez to say, "I don't care about the stats today," before pointing out the xG that his team accumulated en route to the welcome win.
Austin's rolling npxG peaked on Aug. 30, during a very complete win over the Quakes at home — including arguably the best performance of the season for the now-departed Osman Bukari.
In late July, I explored the phenomenon of Austin FC faltering from August on, and the trendlines did, unfortunately, repeat themselves in 2025 — though maybe not as badly as in past seasons.
To close out the season, Verde went 1W 1L 2D in August, 2W 2L 0D in September, and 1W 2L 0D in October, for a total post-July record of 4W 5L 2D, or 14 points out of a possible 33. That is, however, a 1.27 PPG performance, the best Verde's done post-July in its history, even better than the 12-from-33 skid to the finish that 2022's team experienced. (They did finish with 1.38 PPG on the season, so it was technically a dip, but not to the level of 2023, when they only won one of their final 11.)
And the rolling npxGD chart for 2025 looks a lot better than the one in 2024.
2024, being Josh Wolff's final season with Austin FC, was an objectively terrible year.
What do other rolling npxGDs look like?
All MLS teams experience peaks and valleys; that's just the nature of the league. But some weather it better than Austin. Let's look at a few.
Here's Vancouver's 2025.
Save from one rough 2W 4L 0D patch right after a disappointing Concacaf Champions League final in Mexico, the Whitecaps weathered injuries and one key exit (Pedro Vite, soon to be replaced by Thomas Müller) to have a very consistent and successful season. Only one team in the West had a better record in a race that came down to Decision Day.
San Diego FC actually had more ups and downs (though they were still in a blue zone when losing to Austin FC in Q2 Stadium in late March), but finished the season on an upward swing, though they actually came close to blowing the West race by going winless in three before winning their final two to secure the No. 1 seed.
The Supporters' Shield winners (and MLS Cup champions) had one rough patch in the first half of the season, but excelled down the stretch.
And if you wonder why LAFC went 6W 1L 1D down the stretch (and 10W 3L 4D in the second half of the season), other than acquiring Son Heung-min, here's how 2025 looked.
Here's one more, just to show how fortunes turned for the Galaxy in 2025.
Compare that to what they did with Riqui Puig in 2024, getting 64 points while only getting 50.7 xPoints, with a 60.5 xG and a 54.3 xGA, meaning they did better than the stats said they should have.
One more thing I noticed
Austin FC started and ended 2025 with a rolling xG under 1, and in the final match against the Quakes, reached a nadir for the season with 0.2 xG per FBref. Indeed, counting all xG (including penalties, which Verde didn't win a lot of in 2025), the team was under 1 xG in 13 matches, while allowing less than one in 11.
Chance creation and goal scoring continue to be concerns for Verde in 2026 despite the acquisitions of Jayden Nelson and Joseph Rosales, but defense is also a concern, especially late in the season — over the last 11 matches, starting with the loss at Montréal, opponents averaged 1.9 xG per match against Austin. Given that, it's amazing that Verde finished 2025 as well as they did compared to past seasons ... and it's something the team could stand to work on in 2026.
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. For more coverage, check out Emergency Podcast! (an Austin FC Podcast) wherever you get your podcasts.
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