A race to the bottom (of the playoff places): Breaking down seven teams vying for four spots
Austin only needs 10 points in nine matches to get to the fabled 45 points that should guarantee a playoff spot. But will that be enough given the competition?
As the dust settled on what MLS calls Matchday 29 of the 2025 MLS Season, anywhere from seven to nine matches remain for most Western Conference teams, and a clear three-tier structure has emerged, with Austin FC firmly in a middle tier of seven teams angling for the bottom four playoff spots.
We'll begin by establishing tiers and then getting into the remainder of the race. First, here's the top tier.
LAFC, thanks to all the tournaments they were in, will play another 10 matches, currently three points up on 6th-place Portland, who have just eight games left. Also, LAFC just picked up Son Heung-min, who is beginning to click with the rest of the team, even unusually deployed as a No. 9. The Black and Gold could certainly move up from 5th in the coming weeks.
Also, let's just get the bottom three out of the way.
SKC, in 13th place, is five points behind 12th-place Houston. The two teams below them have had dismal seasons. Go ahead and count those three out.
That leaves us with seven teams in the middle.
Eight points separate 6th from 12th, and the current playoff line is at 32 points, which 9th-place San Jose stayed parked at after its 2-1 loss to San Diego FC, giving up goals in the 81st and 84th minute after capturing a lead in the 72nd minute. With Houston and Dallas both just three points off that mark, and with San Jose giving up leads like that, either of them getting up to 9th is conceivable. RSL, on 10th and with Diego Luna and a whole cache of new strikers, is even more conceivably a playoff team.
Let's look at the seven teams, shall we?
Portland Timbers
6th place, 37 points, 10W 9L 7D
Matches remaining: 8
Schedule: 8/23 @ San Diego, 8/30 @ Minnesota, 9/13 vs. New York Red Bulls, 9/20 @ Houston, 9/24 @ Vancouver, 9/27 vs. Dallas, 10/4 @ Seattle, 10/18 vs. San Diego
Average PPG of remaining opponents: 1.58
Recent developments of note: Santiago Moreno recently got jettisoned to Brazilian side Fluminese after clearly not wanting to be there, and the Timbers' front office added Norwegian DP winger Kristoffer Velde and is rumored to be bringing former Inter Miami Matias Rojas back to MLS after a spell with River Plate.
Prognosis: They're clearly reloading for a stretch run, but they've also got a very difficult schedule. I predict they'll still make the playoffs, but wouldn't be surprised to see them dip into the play-in round. (I don't feel like Austin would fare well against a souped-up Timbers.)
Colorado Rapids
7th place, 34 points, 10W 11L 6D
Matches remaining: 7
Schedule: 8/23 @ LA Galaxy, 8/30 @ SKC, 9/13 vs. Houston, 9/20 @ Dallas, 9/27 vs. Minnesota, 10/4 @ RSL, 10/18 vs. LAFC
Average PPG of remaining opponents: 1.20
Recent developments of note: Đorđe Mihailović got moved to Toronto FC and wrote a heartfelt Instagram post to fans who reminded him that he used to play for Montréal — the two Canadian teams enjoy one of the most bitter rivalries in MLS. They have won two matches since Mihailović left, but it feels like that's a "lose now" move and dooms their chances once they get in the playoffs. (This is a team that got bounced in last year's first round on a 9-1 aggregate score over two matches.)
The Rapids also made loan deals to bring in center backs Rob Holding from Crystal Palace (not to be confused with Rob Halford from Judas Priest) and Noah Cobb from Atlanta.
Prognosis: The Rapids play four matches where opponents average 0.94 PPG but then a final three with an average of 1.53 PPG. If they don't bank points before that Minnesota game, they could miss out on the playoffs. More specifically, an ill-timed slide followed by matches against tougher opponents could land them in 10th.
Austin FC
8th place, 35 points, 9W 8L 8D
Matches remaining: 9
Schedule: 8/23 @ Montréal, 8/30 vs. San Jose, 9/7 @ SKC, 9/13 @ Dallas, 9/21 vs. Seattle, 9/27 @ Real Salt Lake, 10/4 vs. St. Louis, 10/12 vs. LAFC, 10/18 @ San Jose
Average PPG of remaining opponents: 1.15
Recent developments of note: There's not much in the way of player acquisition; Nicky Beloko and Mateja Đorđević technically came over, but really seem more like players being stashed for 2026, with Nico Estévez pretty much relying on a core of 14 players.
Prognosis: It's still the easiest overall schedule any of the playoff teams have down the stretch, even with the LAFC match moving to the October international break. They are getting a little better at scoring than they have in prior weeks, and they're not losing matches ... so they probably do enough down the stretch to get into the playoffs.
I just don't know how well they'll do or not do once they reach the playoffs. They currently have to (per today's standings) win a play-in match at home against the Quakes and then try to dispatch SDFC in a three-game series.
San Jose Earthquakes
9th place, 32 points, 8W 11L 8D
Matches remaining: 7
Schedule: 8/23 @ Houston, 8/30 @ Austin, 9/13 vs. LAFC, 9/20 vs. St. Louis, 9/27 @ San Diego, 10/5 @ Vancouver, 10/18 vs. Austin
Average PPG of remaining opponents: 1.44
Recent developments of note: Defensive midfielder Ronaldo Vieira, a former England youth international, came from Sampdoria to join Bruce Arena's squad.
Prognosis: That's a really tough seven-match stretch (for the most part) to finish out the season. Arena may will them to a top-nine finish, but it's conceivable they have at least three losses and a couple of draws in there ... they may struggle to get to 40 points, which I don't believe will be enough.
Real Salt Lake
10th Place, 31 points, 8W 11L 8D
Matches remaining: 8
Schedule: 8/23 vs. Minnesota, 8/30 @ Seattle, 9/13 vs. Kansas City, 9/17 vs. LAFC, 9/21 @ LAFC, 9/27 vs. Austin, 10/4 vs. Colorado, 10/18 @ St. Louis
Average PPG of remaining opponents: 1.39
Recent developments of note: RSL's made some moves, including picking up Nigerian striker Victor Olatunj from Sparta Prague, 20-year-old U.S. Youth National Team forward Marcos Zambrano, and if that's not enough strikers, new designated player Rwan Cruz from Botafogo. RSL started the season a little thin up top after jettisoning Chicho Arango; that's not the case now.
Prognosis: On paper, this is now a really good team with enough talent to get into the playoffs. but they're also facing an incredibly tough schedule down the stretch, including two matches against LAFC just four days apart ... though, if they get to October in striking range, they do play a rivalry game at home followed by a Decision Day match at St. Louis.
FC Dallas
11th place, 29 points, 7W 11L 8D
Matches remaining: 8
Schedule: 8/23 vs. LAFC, 8/30 @ LA Galaxy, 9/6 @ St. Louis, 9/13 vs. Austin, 9/20 vs. Colorado, 9/27 @ Portland, 10/4 vs. Galaxy, 10/18 @ Vancouver
Average PPG of remaining opponents: 1.21
Recent developments of note: Most of the big moves have been outgoing, with Lucho Acosta's departure the most significant, though Dallas also could go Ewing Theory as a result. They also moved Marco Farfan to Tigres. Christian Cappis, a former FC Dallas Academy player, returned from Norway's Viking FK; you might remember Cappis and Diego Rubio getting yellows for an onfield fracas in the opening frames of the most recent disappointing draw.
Prognosis: Right now, FCD gets the edge over the Dynamo in the standings by having a slightly less atrocious goal differential (-8 vs. Houston's -9). Though Houston might be slightly better built for a run at the top nine, the Toros also have a slightly easier schedule. Decision Day is against the Whitecaps at BC Place, but depending on what they have to play for, Dallas could be the beneficiary of rotation that would leave, say, Thomas Müller off the pitch.
Houston Dynamo FC
12th place, 29 points, 7W 11L 8D
Matches remaining: 8
Schedule: 8/23 vs. San Jose, 8/30 @ St. Louis, 9/6 vs. LA Galaxy, 9/13 @ Colorado, 9/20 vs. Portland, 9/27 @ Nashville, 10/4 vs. San Diego, 10/18 @ Kansas City
Average PPG of remaining opponents: 1.24
Recent developments of note: The Dynamo brought Antônio Carlos back to MLS from Fluminense, and sent out Nico Lodeiro to his boyhood club in Uruguay – given that Lodeiro wasn't nearly as impactful for Houston as he was for Seattle in his heyday, or even with Orlando, this isn't that big of a deal.
Prognosis: Having to play Nashville and San Diego back to back at a crucial juncture could be enough to put the Dynamo out of playoff contention, though they've got a mix of playoff hopefuls and bottom-dwellers in the four matches prior (including the Sept. 6 match hosting the Galaxy, rescheduled from July 25's rainout), and they also have a winnable Decision Day match.
Could it come down to goal differential?
With wins as the first tiebreaker per MLS' competition guidelines, and goal differential as the second tiebreaker, you might worry about Austin's current -5. But not to fear: Austin's currently faring better than the aforementioned Dallas and Houston three and four back, as well as RSL (-6). Colorado's even with Austin currently, and even Portland doesn't have much of a cushion at -2. San Jose, curiously, is at 3, with 50 goals scored (to Austin's 24) and 47 allowed (to Austin's 29).
If you're using the rule of thumb that 45 points gets a team at least to the play-in game, which is true most years — though it did take 47 points in the West last year — Verde need to find 10 points in their remaining nine games to hit that threshold.
Given their proclivity for draws lately, they'll almost get there if they just do that, though getting wins in their most winnable matches (starting with Saturday at Montréal, and on Sept. 7 at SKC) would also certainly help.
They very well could rue the ref decision and subsequent capitulation that turned three points to one match before last against Houston, and that late goal Atlanta scored to scratch another two points also looms a bit here. (With just those four points added, Austin's in 6th with a one-win lead on 7th-place Portland in the first tiebreaker.)
But the good news is that Austin's got its fate firmly in its hands — the currently unlikely scenario is getting 21 points in its last nine games to secure 9th, and that's to stave off RSL running off eight straight wins to finish the season. Each subsequent result Austin secures better crystallizes the playoff picture. Nothing is secure yet, but it's certainly a better situation than in 2024, when Austin's 25th match was a 2-2 draw against Charlotte, right before the Leagues Cup break, leaving Austin on 31 points, only to go 3-4-2, getting 11 in the final nine matches when 16 was needed.
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. You can comment here if you’re a subscriber, or reach out via Bluesky.
One point is better than none, but Austin FC's seventh home draw of the 2025 season means that in league matches in Q2 Stadium, they've now drawn more than won and lost combined.
Even with a couple of matches when they didn't score in there, Verde's scored 12 goals in the last seven matches — a definite improvement over the early part of the season.
As the dust settled on what MLS calls Matchday 29 of the 2025 MLS Season, anywhere from seven to nine matches remain for most Western Conference teams, and a clear three-tier structure has emerged, with Austin FC firmly in a middle tier of seven teams angling for the bottom four playoff spots.
We'll begin by establishing tiers and then getting into the remainder of the race. First, here's the top tier.
LAFC, thanks to all the tournaments they were in, will play another 10 matches, currently three points up on 6th-place Portland, who have just eight games left. Also, LAFC just picked up Son Heung-min, who is beginning to click with the rest of the team, even unusually deployed as a No. 9. The Black and Gold could certainly move up from 5th in the coming weeks.
Also, let's just get the bottom three out of the way.
SKC, in 13th place, is five points behind 12th-place Houston. The two teams below them have had dismal seasons. Go ahead and count those three out.
That leaves us with seven teams in the middle.
Eight points separate 6th from 12th, and the current playoff line is at 32 points, which 9th-place San Jose stayed parked at after its 2-1 loss to San Diego FC, giving up goals in the 81st and 84th minute after capturing a lead in the 72nd minute. With Houston and Dallas both just three points off that mark, and with San Jose giving up leads like that, either of them getting up to 9th is conceivable. RSL, on 10th and with Diego Luna and a whole cache of new strikers, is even more conceivably a playoff team.
Let's look at the seven teams, shall we?
Portland Timbers
6th place, 37 points, 10W 9L 7D
Matches remaining: 8
Schedule: 8/23 @ San Diego, 8/30 @ Minnesota, 9/13 vs. New York Red Bulls, 9/20 @ Houston, 9/24 @ Vancouver, 9/27 vs. Dallas, 10/4 @ Seattle, 10/18 vs. San Diego
Average PPG of remaining opponents: 1.58
Recent developments of note: Santiago Moreno recently got jettisoned to Brazilian side Fluminese after clearly not wanting to be there, and the Timbers' front office added Norwegian DP winger Kristoffer Velde and is rumored to be bringing former Inter Miami Matias Rojas back to MLS after a spell with River Plate.
Prognosis: They're clearly reloading for a stretch run, but they've also got a very difficult schedule. I predict they'll still make the playoffs, but wouldn't be surprised to see them dip into the play-in round. (I don't feel like Austin would fare well against a souped-up Timbers.)
Colorado Rapids
7th place, 34 points, 10W 11L 6D
Matches remaining: 7
Schedule: 8/23 @ LA Galaxy, 8/30 @ SKC, 9/13 vs. Houston, 9/20 @ Dallas, 9/27 vs. Minnesota, 10/4 @ RSL, 10/18 vs. LAFC
Average PPG of remaining opponents: 1.20
Recent developments of note: Đorđe Mihailović got moved to Toronto FC and wrote a heartfelt Instagram post to fans who reminded him that he used to play for Montréal — the two Canadian teams enjoy one of the most bitter rivalries in MLS. They have won two matches since Mihailović left, but it feels like that's a "lose now" move and dooms their chances once they get in the playoffs. (This is a team that got bounced in last year's first round on a 9-1 aggregate score over two matches.)
The Rapids also made loan deals to bring in center backs Rob Holding from Crystal Palace (not to be confused with Rob Halford from Judas Priest) and Noah Cobb from Atlanta.
Prognosis: The Rapids play four matches where opponents average 0.94 PPG but then a final three with an average of 1.53 PPG. If they don't bank points before that Minnesota game, they could miss out on the playoffs. More specifically, an ill-timed slide followed by matches against tougher opponents could land them in 10th.
Austin FC
8th place, 35 points, 9W 8L 8D
Matches remaining: 9
Schedule: 8/23 @ Montréal, 8/30 vs. San Jose, 9/7 @ SKC, 9/13 @ Dallas, 9/21 vs. Seattle, 9/27 @ Real Salt Lake, 10/4 vs. St. Louis, 10/12 vs. LAFC, 10/18 @ San Jose
Average PPG of remaining opponents: 1.15
Recent developments of note: There's not much in the way of player acquisition; Nicky Beloko and Mateja Đorđević technically came over, but really seem more like players being stashed for 2026, with Nico Estévez pretty much relying on a core of 14 players.
Prognosis: It's still the easiest overall schedule any of the playoff teams have down the stretch, even with the LAFC match moving to the October international break. They are getting a little better at scoring than they have in prior weeks, and they're not losing matches ... so they probably do enough down the stretch to get into the playoffs.
I just don't know how well they'll do or not do once they reach the playoffs. They currently have to (per today's standings) win a play-in match at home against the Quakes and then try to dispatch SDFC in a three-game series.
San Jose Earthquakes
9th place, 32 points, 8W 11L 8D
Matches remaining: 7
Schedule: 8/23 @ Houston, 8/30 @ Austin, 9/13 vs. LAFC, 9/20 vs. St. Louis, 9/27 @ San Diego, 10/5 @ Vancouver, 10/18 vs. Austin
Average PPG of remaining opponents: 1.44
Recent developments of note: Defensive midfielder Ronaldo Vieira, a former England youth international, came from Sampdoria to join Bruce Arena's squad.
Prognosis: That's a really tough seven-match stretch (for the most part) to finish out the season. Arena may will them to a top-nine finish, but it's conceivable they have at least three losses and a couple of draws in there ... they may struggle to get to 40 points, which I don't believe will be enough.
Real Salt Lake
10th Place, 31 points, 8W 11L 8D
Matches remaining: 8
Schedule: 8/23 vs. Minnesota, 8/30 @ Seattle, 9/13 vs. Kansas City, 9/17 vs. LAFC, 9/21 @ LAFC, 9/27 vs. Austin, 10/4 vs. Colorado, 10/18 @ St. Louis
Average PPG of remaining opponents: 1.39
Recent developments of note: RSL's made some moves, including picking up Nigerian striker Victor Olatunj from Sparta Prague, 20-year-old U.S. Youth National Team forward Marcos Zambrano, and if that's not enough strikers, new designated player Rwan Cruz from Botafogo. RSL started the season a little thin up top after jettisoning Chicho Arango; that's not the case now.
Prognosis: On paper, this is now a really good team with enough talent to get into the playoffs. but they're also facing an incredibly tough schedule down the stretch, including two matches against LAFC just four days apart ... though, if they get to October in striking range, they do play a rivalry game at home followed by a Decision Day match at St. Louis.
FC Dallas
11th place, 29 points, 7W 11L 8D
Matches remaining: 8
Schedule: 8/23 vs. LAFC, 8/30 @ LA Galaxy, 9/6 @ St. Louis, 9/13 vs. Austin, 9/20 vs. Colorado, 9/27 @ Portland, 10/4 vs. Galaxy, 10/18 @ Vancouver
Average PPG of remaining opponents: 1.21
Recent developments of note: Most of the big moves have been outgoing, with Lucho Acosta's departure the most significant, though Dallas also could go Ewing Theory as a result. They also moved Marco Farfan to Tigres. Christian Cappis, a former FC Dallas Academy player, returned from Norway's Viking FK; you might remember Cappis and Diego Rubio getting yellows for an onfield fracas in the opening frames of the most recent disappointing draw.
Prognosis: Right now, FCD gets the edge over the Dynamo in the standings by having a slightly less atrocious goal differential (-8 vs. Houston's -9). Though Houston might be slightly better built for a run at the top nine, the Toros also have a slightly easier schedule. Decision Day is against the Whitecaps at BC Place, but depending on what they have to play for, Dallas could be the beneficiary of rotation that would leave, say, Thomas Müller off the pitch.
Houston Dynamo FC
12th place, 29 points, 7W 11L 8D
Matches remaining: 8
Schedule: 8/23 vs. San Jose, 8/30 @ St. Louis, 9/6 vs. LA Galaxy, 9/13 @ Colorado, 9/20 vs. Portland, 9/27 @ Nashville, 10/4 vs. San Diego, 10/18 @ Kansas City
Average PPG of remaining opponents: 1.24
Recent developments of note: The Dynamo brought Antônio Carlos back to MLS from Fluminense, and sent out Nico Lodeiro to his boyhood club in Uruguay – given that Lodeiro wasn't nearly as impactful for Houston as he was for Seattle in his heyday, or even with Orlando, this isn't that big of a deal.
Prognosis: Having to play Nashville and San Diego back to back at a crucial juncture could be enough to put the Dynamo out of playoff contention, though they've got a mix of playoff hopefuls and bottom-dwellers in the four matches prior (including the Sept. 6 match hosting the Galaxy, rescheduled from July 25's rainout), and they also have a winnable Decision Day match.
Could it come down to goal differential?
With wins as the first tiebreaker per MLS' competition guidelines, and goal differential as the second tiebreaker, you might worry about Austin's current -5. But not to fear: Austin's currently faring better than the aforementioned Dallas and Houston three and four back, as well as RSL (-6). Colorado's even with Austin currently, and even Portland doesn't have much of a cushion at -2. San Jose, curiously, is at 3, with 50 goals scored (to Austin's 24) and 47 allowed (to Austin's 29).
If you're using the rule of thumb that 45 points gets a team at least to the play-in game, which is true most years — though it did take 47 points in the West last year — Verde need to find 10 points in their remaining nine games to hit that threshold.
Given their proclivity for draws lately, they'll almost get there if they just do that, though getting wins in their most winnable matches (starting with Saturday at Montréal, and on Sept. 7 at SKC) would also certainly help.
They very well could rue the ref decision and subsequent capitulation that turned three points to one match before last against Houston, and that late goal Atlanta scored to scratch another two points also looms a bit here. (With just those four points added, Austin's in 6th with a one-win lead on 7th-place Portland in the first tiebreaker.)
But the good news is that Austin's got its fate firmly in its hands — the currently unlikely scenario is getting 21 points in its last nine games to secure 9th, and that's to stave off RSL running off eight straight wins to finish the season. Each subsequent result Austin secures better crystallizes the playoff picture. Nothing is secure yet, but it's certainly a better situation than in 2024, when Austin's 25th match was a 2-2 draw against Charlotte, right before the Leagues Cup break, leaving Austin on 31 points, only to go 3-4-2, getting 11 in the final nine matches when 16 was needed.
Verde All Day is a reader-supported online publication covering Austin FC. Additional support is provided by Austin Telco Federal Credit Union. You can comment here if you’re a subscriber, or reach out via Bluesky.
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